Not surprised. S-curve exists for a reason. Tesla is on the other end of it.
I think its even deeper market economics at work. Ten years ago, Netflix had a virtual monopoly (at least, a huge '1st-mover' advantage) in the streaming video arena. Fewer people had access to broadband, and bandwidth was much more expensive.
Now every media outlet and their dog has a streaming service. Netflix has trouble differentiating itself in this sea of well-funded startups and well-established media brands (Disney+ AMC+ etc+). And easing of Covid restrictions means total viewership (TAM) is down.
Now shortzes will salivate that see! Tesla will suffer the same end in 10 years when Mercedes or Toyota or Ford or BangGang Motors floods the market with cheep EVs.
Problem for shortie is they're always 10 steps behind: in 10 years, Tesla will be selling FACTORIES to these wanna-bees, specifically because its the only way they can get enough battery cells to build the few cars their meager resources allow. BTW, Tesla will sell them FSD too. Should make it manditory IMO, or '
no soup for you!'
IMO, Tesla WILL plan (
MAST3RLY) to build sufficlent Battery Factories to build 300 TWh of cells by 2040. Now, the competition can either buy some of them, or Tesla will own them all, and those other guys will have to compete with Tesla cars/pwr products.
How, you ask? I predict Tesla is planning to build 3 factories that make battery factories (1 on each major continent). These Meta-Factories will turn Tesla in the Coca-Cola bottler of the Auto and Energy businesses, with their $15T/yr TAM.
Even Warren Buffet likes coke, near monopoly on sugary drinks for near a hundred years now... Just think, by 2030 a Tesla 4680 battery cell with 100 wh of energy will be cheaper to buy ($5 COGS) than a 500 ml can of Monster Energy drink (already $5 retail).
3 keys to buying a Tesla Battery Cell factory:
- No-haggle pricing on the website, and
- No-discounts for volume purchases (we sell every factory we make)
- Order backlog stretches for years.
Cheers!
#PREDICT