Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Accident]

PG&E's Tesla Megapack battery in Monterey Bay's Elkhorn Slough now operational

A 182.5-megawatt energy storage system in Northern California that was designed and constructed in a partnership between Tesla and Pacific Gas and Electric Company is now operational, the utility announced Monday.

www.ksbw.com

 

[Prunesquallor]

I think its even deeper market economics at work. Ten years ago, Netflix had a virtual monopoly (at least, a huge '1st-mover' advantage) in the streaming video arena. Fewer people had access to broadband, and bandwidth was much more expensive.

Now every media outlet and their dog has a streaming service. Netflix has trouble differentiating itself in this sea of well-funded startups and well-established media brands (Disney+ AMC+ etc+). And easing of Covid restrictions means total viewership (TAM) is down.

Now shortzes will salivate that see! Tesla will suffer the same end in 10 years when Mercedes or Toyota or Ford or BangGang Motors floods the market with cheep EVs.

Problem for shortie is they're always 10 steps behind: in 10 years, Tesla will be selling FACTORIES to these wanna-bees, specifically because its the only way they can get enough battery cells to build the few cars their meager resources allow. BTW, Tesla will sell them FSD too. Should make it manditory IMO, or 'no soup for you!'

IMO, Tesla WILL plan (MAST3RLY) to build sufficlent Battery Factories to build 300 TWh of cells by 2040. Now, the competition can either buy some of them, or Tesla will own them all, and those other guys will have to compete with Tesla cars/pwr products.

How, you ask? I predict Tesla is planning to build 3 factories that make battery factories (1 on each major continent). These Meta-Factories will turn Tesla in the Coca-Cola bottler of the Auto and Energy businesses, with their $15T/yr TAM.

Even Warren Buffet likes coke, near monopoly on sugary drinks for near a hundred years now... Just think, by 2030 a Tesla 4680 battery cell with 100 wh of energy will be cheaper to buy ($5 COGS) than a 500 ml can of Monster Energy drink (already $5 retail).

3 keys to buying a Tesla Battery Cell factory:

1. No-haggle pricing on the website, and
2. No-discounts for volume purchases (we sell every factory we make)
3. Order backlog stretches for years.

Cheers!

#PREDICT

I’ve thought about this and have difficulty imagining the meta-factory. Does it include robots that built robots? Robots that build assembly lines? Robots that build Giga presses? Does Tesla contract out for basic foundation and building construction?

Has anything like a factory factory ever been done before?

 

[jhm]

Lolz

Mercedes Has a Massive New Weapon to One Up Tesla - TheStreet

German automaker Mercedes-Benz is building a veritable arsenal to challenge Tesla's leadership in high-end electric vehicles.

www.thestreet.com

Mercedes hasn't met Mary.

 

[Discoducky]

'War on climate change': Tesla-backed engineer Jeff Dahn seeks a million-mile battery


“We think that lithium-ion batteries can last for a century with the right chemistry,” he said in an interview. The problem is time. Someone would need to track the battery’s performance from beginning to end, for a hundred years. “Proving that it can last a century actually takes a century,” Dahn added, laughing.

“There are no other academic groups in the world that work on developing really long, decades or longer, lithium-ion cells,” Dahn said. “Most academics are looking for a quick home run with a gee-whiz paper in Science or Nature. We’re not like that. We’re trying to really make a difference and do something useful.”

Data point: I just checked in with my first Tesla (Jan 2013 build Model S 60kWh) and it has 118k miles, charges to 181 rated at 100% (which is 90% from new) and shows 163 rated miles (which is 93% from new).

 

[Accident]

Burry

Screenshot because he’ll delete the tweet.

 

[2daMoon]

NFLX getting crushed in the After-hrs session after reporting a drop in subscribers:

Netflix subscribers fall for first time in a decade, shares plunge 24%

View attachment 795477

Who do they think they are, TSLA?

 

[Paul_SF]

View attachment 795529
Burry

Screenshot because he’ll delete the tweet.

Why? He’s irrelevant like always

 

[jhm]

I think its even deeper market economics at work. Ten years ago, Netflix had a virtual monopoly (at least, a huge '1st-mover' advantage) in the streaming video arena. Fewer people had access to broadband, and bandwidth was much more expensive.

Now every media outlet and their dog has a streaming service. Netflix has trouble differentiating itself in this sea of well-funded startups and well-established media brands (Disney+ AMC+ etc+). And easing of Covid restrictions means total viewership (TAM) is down.

Now shortzes will salivate that see! Tesla will suffer the same end in 10 years when Mercedes or Toyota or Ford or BangGang Motors floods the market with cheep EVs.

Problem for shortie is they're always 10 steps behind: in 10 years, Tesla will be selling FACTORIES to these wanna-bees, specifically because its the only way they can get enough battery cells to build the few cars their meager resources allow. BTW, Tesla will sell them FSD too. Should make it manditory IMO, or 'no soup for you!'

IMO, Tesla WILL plan (MAST3RLY) to build sufficlent Battery Factories to build 300 TWh of cells by 2040. Now, the competition can either buy some of them, or Tesla will own them all, and those other guys will have to compete with Tesla cars/pwr products.

How, you ask? I predict Tesla is planning to build 3 factories that make battery factories (1 on each major continent). These Meta-Factories will turn Tesla in the Coca-Cola bottler of the Auto and Energy businesses, with their $15T/yr TAM.

Even Warren Buffet likes coke, near monopoly on sugary drinks for near a hundred years now... Just think, by 2030 a Tesla 4680 battery cell with 100 wh of energy will be cheaper to buy ($5 COGS) than a 500 ml can of Monster Energy drink (already $5 retail).

3 keys to buying a Tesla Battery Cell factory:

1. No-haggle pricing on the website, and
2. No-discounts for volume purchases (we sell every factory we make)
3. Order backlog stretches for years.

Cheers!

#PREDICT

What sort of year by year ramp up of battery production do you envision hitting 300 TWh cumulative by 2040? Adding 2TWh production capacity for the next 17 years would produce 306 TWh in 17 years. This would also arrive at a 36TWh/year run rate, which seems about right.

This ramp is what the whole li-ion battery industry should be doing to arrest climate change. It's probably good for Tesla to plan on going it alone to assure a good future. If other battery makers scale up such that Tesla does not need to go it alone, that would be even better for the planet.

 

[Ogre]

Tesla will be selling FACTORIES to these wanna-bees, specifically because its the only way they can get enough battery cells to build the few cars their meager resources allow. BTW, Tesla will sell them FSD too. Should make it manditory IMO, or 'no soup for you!'

Considering how Tesla tends to design everything with the intent of mass production, this makes a certain sense.

The machine that builds the machine that builds the machines. They might have to buy IDRA from LK to get there.

 

[jerry33]

I think its even deeper market economics at work. Ten years ago, Netflix had a virtual monopoly (at least, a huge '1st-mover' advantage) in the streaming video arena. Fewer people had access to broadband, and bandwidth was much more expensive.

Now every media outlet and their dog has a streaming service. Netflix has trouble differentiating itself in this sea of well-funded startups and well-established media brands (Disney+ AMC+ etc+). And easing of Covid restrictions means total viewership (TAM) is down.

Now shortzes will salivate that see! Tesla will suffer the same end in 10 years when Mercedes or Toyota or Ford or BangGang Motors floods the market with cheep EVs.

Problem for shortie is they're always 10 steps behind: in 10 years, Tesla will be selling FACTORIES to these wanna-bees, specifically because its the only way they can get enough battery cells to build the few cars their meager resources allow. BTW, Tesla will sell them FSD too. Should make it manditory IMO, or 'no soup for you!'

IMO, Tesla WILL plan (MAST3RLY) to build sufficlent Battery Factories to build 300 TWh of cells by 2040. Now, the competition can either buy some of them, or Tesla will own them all, and those other guys will have to compete with Tesla cars/pwr products.

How, you ask? I predict Tesla is planning to build 3 factories that make battery factories (1 on each major continent). These Meta-Factories will turn Tesla in the Coca-Cola bottler of the Auto and Energy businesses, with their $15T/yr TAM.

Even Warren Buffet likes coke, near monopoly on sugary drinks for near a hundred years now... Just think, by 2030 a Tesla 4680 battery cell with 100 wh of energy will be cheaper to buy ($5 COGS) than a 500 ml can of Monster Energy drink (already $5 retail).

3 keys to buying a Tesla Battery Cell factory:

1. No-haggle pricing on the website, and
2. No-discounts for volume purchases (we sell every factory we make)
3. Order backlog stretches for years.

Cheers!

#PREDICT

In addition,Netflix went from $10 to $15 a month. That's when I bailed.

 

[Prunesquallor]

In addition,Netflix went from $10 to $15 a month. That's when I bailed.

They need some diamond-handed apes to help them out.

 

[Paul_SF]

Considering how Tesla tends to design everything with the intent of mass production, this makes a certain sense.

The machine that builds the machine that builds the machines. They might have to buy IDRA from LK to get there.

Or, make their own specialized casting machines. It seems they are already modifying the ones from IDRA, as The Limiting Factor noticed during his visit at Cyber Rodeo, if I got that right from one of his clips. IDRA/LK will have the rest of the industry to sell to, they get to improve their product with Tesla’s knowhow, everyone wins.

 

[Stretch2727]

Yes, GM is almost amazingly capital inefficient.

IIRC, if you net out the P/L for like the last 30 years of GM it nets out to basically zero!

Part of the reason GM’s FCF is so negative is because of bankruptcy wiping the slate clean, allowing them to borrow a lot of money. They spent a lot of that borrowed money on dividends and buybacks too…

And don't forget GM raised $20B+ in an IPO in 2010.

 

[Ogre]

In addition,Netflix went from $10 to $15 a month. That's when I bailed.

We haven’t bailed yet, but are seriously considering it.

Netflix has long been a decent goto for content, but lately it’s been hard to find anything interesting on there. I don‘t know if they lost out on some contracts for good content or what, but it feels like they‘ve lost whatever it was that’s kept me there. Apple TV seems to have more and better original content at the moment. Mention Apple because they are much cheaper and newer, never expected they Would be remotely competitive with Netflix. We’ll likely drop it for Disney Plus for 6 months at least then come back.

 

[Mike Smith]

The biggest lie the media tells about FSD is that it's being tested by untrained drivers. All drivers have to be trained in order to get their driver's license. They should explain why they think paying someone would make them any safer at using FSD.

 

[The Accountant]

Now updated with Rob's and Troy's numbers:

 

[Prunesquallor]

Now updated with Rob's and Troy's numbers:

View attachment 795546

Seems like a pretty tight grouping $2.81-$2.85.

 

[AudubonB]

I looked at the Tesla Economist site two times, or perhaps just once, and remember hearing some material I thought irresponsibly wrong for a purported serious presentator. Can anyone point to how it is - volumes, margins, depreciations, etc. - that his EPS is as much of an outlier as it is?

 

[Marc_K_inNJ]

You have to wonder how GM is able to spend $20-$30 billion a year on capital expenditures and have so little to show for it. I guess it's an art.

We are spoiled with TSLA's capital spending efficiency.

Yeah, they spend just like a politician. Makes you wonder if that’s why they are the favorite “leader”…

 

[Ogre]

I looked at the Tesla Economist site two times, or perhaps just once, and remember hearing some material I thought irresponsibly wrong for a purported serious presentator. Can anyone point to how it is - volumes, margins, depreciations, etc. - that his EPS is as much of an outlier as it is?

Kind of depends on what the final result is now doesn’t it?

If the actual number comes in at $2.85 where the indies are clustered, he’s only 10% high where the Wall Street number would be 14% low.

Watching a few of his videos, I’ve come to the conclusion that Tesla Economist is a bit too optimistic for my personal tastes though.