Said on the call this is a just in case move. So that if 4680 ramp isnt fast enough they can make 2170 Model Y. This is very good in my view, they cant have the need for 4680 cells for Model Y stop a volume ramp of CyberTruck.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I'm glad that *someone* is getting some use out of my old Nissan EVSE
Gas stations vs gas pumps.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
That sounds right regarding the CT, but they have a huge backlog of Model Y LR to fill. Are they going to wait for 4680 production to ramp to fill these orders ? I doubt it, if they can manufacture 2170 cars with otherwise unused production capacity.
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Sarcasm ; sometimes the only rational recourse when thinking of share price fluctuations. Most of the rationalists ignore human emotional reactions, and for them there are all the myriad quantitive approaches which as our esteemed moderator @AudubonB points out implicitly, they substitute precision for accuracy. In my opinion the best hint of that practice is making a forecast that goes far beyond the last significant digit.
So, to splits. In the world of partial share purchases and sales round numbers for shareholders transactions are just a convention, with a tiny bit of transactional efficiency sometimes. Thus the value of a split is mostly psychological, and the advantage of Never Split is also psychological. Most aficionados of the psychology of markets use multiple share classes to have it both ways. Hence the prototype of it all, BRK. BRK-A $522,900 as I write this. BDR US$=16.86. The latter is the Brazilian Depositary Receipt. Of course there is no doubt that these are not the proverbial apple to apple comparison.
Back to TSLA. Since they quite obviously have zero need for new capital a split or a new class of shares would have no purely rational quantitative function.
As all of us who pay attention probably know Tesla gains huge positive benefit from, mostly, the retail investors. They (we) publicize and promote incessantly, enthusiastically and relentlessly. A split, say, 10:1 will act to broaden our base and encourage positive feedback from the Robinhood crowd as well as the more traditional Schwab and Fidelity smaller investors.
Such a split will mean essentially nothing to those of us who date our first TSLA shares almost anywhere in the previous decade. It will end out yielding a higher net price simply because it will broaden the base of investors. As a not-coincidental consequence quite a few institutional investors understand that 'irrational' effect, so they too will stock up on TSLA to some degree.
Those of us with really long memories will remember that once upon a time US share transaction fees were higher for small numbers of shares ("odd lots") and cheaper with lots of 100 shares. Higher share volumes and discounts of various types and colors, including "soft money" (don't ask, it no longer exists). Thus splits had, back then, the effect of reducing transaction costs for smaller monetary transactions, so had a purely logical rational role. The inverse also was true, 'penny stocks' would sometimes happen when overly aggressive splitters fell on hard times, and transactions cost went up again.
So rather than debating 'logic' just understand that a split for TSLA is a superb example of how Tesla does marketing. They are so very good at it that they have no need for advertising. Nobody is so skilled as are they at marketing in cyberspace.
Understanding how Tesla does marketing also explains why the Twitter affair is relevant to TSLA. Frankly, it matters little whether Elon takes control or does not. His popularity in the prospect base for the next generation of purchasers continues to rise. The split just accelerates the narrative.
The problem, as we all know, is increasing production as rapidly as possible. A split helps retail waiters to keep waiting (im)patiently.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Holy cow! That's 248 new locations every 91.25 days in the middle of winter that Tesla is commissioning! Which is 2.7 new locations every single day, 7 days a week! They are averaging 8.7 new connectors per new location.
In 2018 I had to travel carefully and Superchargers were generally not optional, the one I needed to use was obvious. Now they are numerous enough that on any given trip there are multiple options and they just keep growing every year.
It might be that we are not seeing the acceleration. In most of Northern VA the lag between initial work and actually turning on the location was months and months, 2-3 Qs. So, I would hope that in Q3-4 we'd start to see more locations opening.
I also assume new stations are new physical addresses where new connectors is more charging spots spread across all the existing stations (including newly opened). For instance, a limited set of high speed chargers going into an existing charging station, new connectors but not new stations.
Isaacson seems to be a traditional biography author whose finished products are physical and e-books. I’ve read a number of his and I don’t recall him ever doing anything like you describe.
Yeah, it’s not clear why Tesla should consider OK for any investment at this time. Yeah, Texas has its dealership issues, but at least it’s not regressing.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Globally, Tesla is installing ~ 25 connectors a day.
That sounds like a full time job for somebody at Tesla.
Just when it looked like analysts were getting their
together, BAM!
Macro's are entering back into bull market territory; today will be fascinating to watch.
The macro bull path back to ATHs could take weeks, but I'm willing to wait
The macro bull path back to ATHs could take weeks, but I'm willing to wait
Maybe at least some good ones?Aluminum wheels, regulatory credits and Super Bowl Ad's -- thank you competition.
Who is gonna be dumb enough to run super bowl ads next year
2daMoon
Mostly Harmless
Oh look, the market is about to open. 
Perhaps TSLA can add to the meager gains so far in the Pre-market.
HODL!
Perhaps TSLA can add to the meager gains so far in the Pre-market.
HODL!
ZachF
Active Member
Luckily its looking like I was wrong on the time/speed at which Shanghai would return to production, so the Q2 hit won’t be as large.
Here are my current rough guesses for P/D:
Q2: 280k
Q3: 420k
Q4: 550k
That’s about 1.56m for the year. That should give $90b+ in revenue.
Note, 550k units in Q4 is $30b+ quarterly. GM, Ford, BMW, and Honda all now have revenues in the $120-130b annually. This will put Tesla among the largest automakers in revenue by the end of the year.
Tesla will certainly be America’s largest automaker by next year. It will certainly make more profit.
Last year, the two companies that manufactured the most autos in the USA were Ford and GM, at about 1.6m each. You’ll notice this number is about the same as the planned output rates of just Fremont and Austin combined… so next year some time Tesla will also likely be the largest US automaker by production volume as well.
Here are my current rough guesses for P/D:
Q2: 280k
Q3: 420k
Q4: 550k
That’s about 1.56m for the year. That should give $90b+ in revenue.
Note, 550k units in Q4 is $30b+ quarterly. GM, Ford, BMW, and Honda all now have revenues in the $120-130b annually. This will put Tesla among the largest automakers in revenue by the end of the year.
Tesla will certainly be America’s largest automaker by next year. It will certainly make more profit.
Last year, the two companies that manufactured the most autos in the USA were Ford and GM, at about 1.6m each. You’ll notice this number is about the same as the planned output rates of just Fremont and Austin combined… so next year some time Tesla will also likely be the largest US automaker by production volume as well.
BrownOuttaSpec
Active Member
Thank you @colettimj (link) and @Usain (link) for pulling together the Supercharger numbers to confirm my suspicion that that roll out of additional superchargers isn't really accelerating (yet). Hopefully this will change as EVs are becoming more accepted by people/governments each day. Tesla cant build a new SuC location if the property owners don't allow them.
Thank you @The Accountant (link) and @JusRelax (link) for highlighting how much Wall Street and some research firms have ZERO insight on how much Tesla is going to grow. 2 new GigaFactories come online and WS raises their EPS by $0.08 (to $2.34) for Q2'22 after they got blown out of their estimates for Q1'22
Thank you @The Accountant (link) and @JusRelax (link) for highlighting how much Wall Street and some research firms have ZERO insight on how much Tesla is going to grow. 2 new GigaFactories come online and WS raises their EPS by $0.08 (to $2.34) for Q2'22 after they got blown out of their estimates for Q1'22
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CLK350
Member
Re @jbcarioca's post above on Tesla's genius marketing agree completely EXCEPT re the Twitter affair " ..Understanding how Tesla does marketing also explains why the Twitter affair is relevant to TSLA. Frankly, it matters little whether Elon takes control or does not. "
In my humble opinion, the Twitter deal is a BIG deal for Elon / Tesla :
Elon may have out of nowhere quirks, BUT he doesn't do big $ deals for fun or without a serious and very calculated plan
He may have lofty and laudable ambitions regarding Twitter, but he ALSO won't do this at a loss - quite the contrary actually.
Besides serving to protect the only platform he /Tesla uses effectively as PR (imagine if it continued on its path of being "normalized" by the PTB* crow - it is doing a great job so far misrepresenting Tesla/ Elon in most people's minds.
(*)Powers That Be, ie the 6 US corp who own 90% of all media in the US, and de facto control most people's opinions.
- by itself IF it succeeds in being just a better source of news/ entertainment than the current media, it would bring big profits
- in addition it does bring in the needed raw input for Tesla's AI DOJO venture, currently solving FSD, but next to help Optimus and also advanced AI/ DOJO as a service. This can be potentially as big if not bigger than Amazon's cloud services.
Edit: grammar, typos
In my humble opinion, the Twitter deal is a BIG deal for Elon / Tesla :
Elon may have out of nowhere quirks, BUT he doesn't do big $ deals for fun or without a serious and very calculated plan
He may have lofty and laudable ambitions regarding Twitter, but he ALSO won't do this at a loss - quite the contrary actually.
Besides serving to protect the only platform he /Tesla uses effectively as PR (imagine if it continued on its path of being "normalized" by the PTB* crow - it is doing a great job so far misrepresenting Tesla/ Elon in most people's minds.
(*)Powers That Be, ie the 6 US corp who own 90% of all media in the US, and de facto control most people's opinions.
- by itself IF it succeeds in being just a better source of news/ entertainment than the current media, it would bring big profits
- in addition it does bring in the needed raw input for Tesla's AI DOJO venture, currently solving FSD, but next to help Optimus and also advanced AI/ DOJO as a service. This can be potentially as big if not bigger than Amazon's cloud services.
Edit: grammar, typos
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
I've been thinking about the $0.4B jump in pollution credits Tesla booked this quarter. I interpret it as a bonus for Tesla managing to maintain production during Covid while other manufacturers falter in their EV production plans and have to come to Tesla to make up the regulatory difference.
Thought about that way, Tesla's performance during Covid and the supply crunches has added another 0.5 Gigafactory or so to to its eventual manufacturing capacity, multiplied by say 50 years of production.
And now for a wild number: 0.5 GF * 1M cars/factory*year * 50 year factory lifetime * $10k profit per car ...
= 250 Billion bonus prize. Not bad Tesla, not bad.
Thought about that way, Tesla's performance during Covid and the supply crunches has added another 0.5 Gigafactory or so to to its eventual manufacturing capacity, multiplied by say 50 years of production.
And now for a wild number: 0.5 GF * 1M cars/factory*year * 50 year factory lifetime * $10k profit per car ...
= 250 Billion bonus prize. Not bad Tesla, not bad.
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