There is something extraordinary going on with energy prices in Europe. Electricity prices are now 3-5x what they were a year ago. It's a price shock comparable in magnitude to the oil crises of the 1970's, yet the significance of this does not seem to get the attention it deserves.
Source :
Nordpool electricity spot market data
The chart shows the spot market price of electricity in Germany and France, but it's reflective of the general trend in nearly all of Europe. It started in 2021, well before the Ukraine war. It has partly to do with reduced nuclear generating capacity in Germany, France, and Sweden. Of course, cutting off electricity generation with Russian natural gas will exacerbate matters even more, as there are no obvious alternatives.
Many consumers have long-term contracts, so they are not affected yet, but when they need to renew their contract they're in for a rude awakening. In my personal case, my household energy bill will triple from 100 to 300 euro a month.
As investors, we should be concerned with the ramifications of this. There may be social upheaval, and it's going to be ugly for manufacturing requiring a lot of electricity.
Gigafactory Berlin will be affected. Tesla owners will be affected, as most of the fuel costs savings from going electric are evaporating (still a small advantage).
There is a silver lining down the road, though. Solar power is going to get a massive boom. Rooftop solar is generally achievable at 200 Euro/MWh, so this is now profitable without subsidies. Large-scale solar even more so. There will be a massive market for battery storage.
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