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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Robinhood shares pop more than 20% after Sam Bankman-Fried buys 7.6% stake
Sam Bankman-Fried, the CEO of crypto exchange FTX, has taken a 7.6% stake in Robinhood worth $648 million, according to an SEC filing.
bottom feeders with deep pockets
Why not, right? My pockets are not as deep as others. Feel better about that then shorting some distressed company.Robinhood shares pop more than 20% after Sam Bankman-Fried buys 7.6% stake
Sam Bankman-Fried, the CEO of crypto exchange FTX, has taken a 7.6% stake in Robinhood worth $648 million, according to an SEC filing.www.cnbc.com
bottom feeders with deep pockets
Another theory why trash stocks are going higher is because they all have capitulated. Did all of them fall like 20%+ after earnings piling on the fall since November? Pretty much. ARKK actually bounced off the bottom of the pandemic crash. That seems like capitulation
With that being said, maybe every sector needs to capitulate first before going higher....
With that being said, maybe every sector needs to capitulate first before going higher....
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Powell reiterating again the 50bps is the play at the next two meetings. That's the good part of his interview and should allow treasuries to stabilize under 3, likely 2.8. The bad is a walk back from the 75bps not being considered and talk of a soft landing being out of their control (which I think is really the expectation anyway).
The markets have decided that there will be a recession.
They are currently attempting to price this in. It is very difficult to price in something like a recession that has not even occurred yet. WS usually does this by smashing the market to pieces.
Did we see capitulation today? I saw some major dip buying. This is not the same thing.
I am not confident this is a bottom. I suppose you never are in the end.
Stay patient and stay invested. Do not use margin. I just blew up a very nice account (sold some shares that I had tagged as 'permanent') as I realized it could not take another ten percent move down in TSLA without some forced liquidation. So it goes. I have other accounts. They are showing large paper losses since the beginning of the year. No problem with those. They have no margin at all.
They are currently attempting to price this in. It is very difficult to price in something like a recession that has not even occurred yet. WS usually does this by smashing the market to pieces.
Did we see capitulation today? I saw some major dip buying. This is not the same thing.
I am not confident this is a bottom. I suppose you never are in the end.
Stay patient and stay invested. Do not use margin. I just blew up a very nice account (sold some shares that I had tagged as 'permanent') as I realized it could not take another ten percent move down in TSLA without some forced liquidation. So it goes. I have other accounts. They are showing large paper losses since the beginning of the year. No problem with those. They have no margin at all.
Cathie Wood, apparently
Yes, and it's nearly impossible to reach over the edge of a normal pick up because the bed is so high. It's also a great way to injure yourself. People can far more easily just reach over the tailgate of the adjustable suspension (8" lower) Cybertruck.
But maybe some people will pay 20k more for a comparable truck so they can reach over the side of the bed vs the tailgate.
We never really know when capitulation happens in the moment... we didn't know March 23, 2020 was in the moment, but we do know now.
Thank you. I've been wanting to say the same thing for quite a while. Using P/E ratios to evaluate the current market value of a company growing 50-70% per year is ridiculous. I think it is popular on this board because it is such a simple calculation to make. For mega growth companies, DCF analysis or even annualized P/S ratios are much more reasonable metrics. P/Es are irrelevant.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
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Or if you prefer not to give fred a click
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Ok. Was just trying to point out due to a fundamental design difference one truck might suite someone better and vice versa. This was a counterpoint to you pointing out the only reason someone would not buy a cybertruck is for 'looks' or if they are far removed from a supercharger. Are you really not going to reach over the edge and grab your bag/tool/whatever if its all the way up in the bed due to risk of injury? What about tossing stuff in. Never addressed that. Every design has pros and cons, and to not acknowledge that is a bit too rah-rah tesla in my opinion.
I've got it! Transport a Prufrock to Ukraine then drill under the Russian troops into the plant.
Sometimes I think back to when I predicted a bottom on March 18th, 2020 (the day TSLA touched $350 pre-split) right here on this forum, but didn't have the conviction to load up at the time. I'd be retired right now, but...c'est la vie.
Same here, 2 crazy days on call didn’t have time to pee during my 90 patients clinic and just logged in and realized my 40 shares order at 705 passed through. Another buy order I had set up 3 months ago. I thought we would be in the 1300s today, I was utterly wrong. But I still left the buy orders just in case an Armageddon happened.
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
That's when I sold a big chunk. I reached peak fear and quickly pulled myself back together and bought it all back at a small loss
. Probably after reading words of wisdom on here.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
Tesla Auto Business Summary (excluding ZEV Credits)
Taking a high level view of the performance since 2018, a few things are obvious.
1) Gross profit per car is headed towards $20k or more.
If deliveries merely grow 60% annually in ‘22 and ‘23, we’ll have 2.4 million sold in ‘23.
At $20k gross profit per car we’d make $48B auto gross profit in ‘23. With $8B OpEx, 10% provisioned for income tax, and 1.2B shares outstanding, ‘23 earnings per share would be $30. This is my BEAR CASE. (Remember, this is excluding ZEV credits and counting Energy as zero. These might add another $1-4 to EPS.)
A reasonably bullish scenario would be delivery growth of 80% and $25k gross profit per car. Now we get ‘23 deliveries of 3 million cars and $50 EPS.
Upside even from there:
1) Tesla may raise prices even more, or close orders for lower variants, or require inclusion of nonstandard extras.
2) Europe may have enough demand to sustain Model Y sales prices of $70k+ deep into 2023 even as Giga Berlin has begun dumping volume into that market.
3) FSD take rate and price may materially increase, especially with Beta rollout beyond USA and purported radical improvements with V11 (single stack).
4) Model Y production ramp at Austin/Berlin/Shanghai Part 2 may be legendary, considering that Model Y manufacturing is well understood now and we have heard of no substantial issues with the production processes. Also, Tesla has guided for supply constraints to ease around the end of ‘22
6) Tesla Energy might finally make money.
7) FSD may, finally, be safe enough for initial robotaxi rollout. Maybe
.
Even a year ago I didn’t anticipate anything close to this. The whole business is just ludicrously strong. The Master Plan is all coming together at once.
| Auto Rev | Auto CoGS | Gross Profit | Vehicle deliveries | Avg Rev per Vehicle | Avg CoGS per Vehicle | Gross Profit per Vehicle | Gross Margin | Operating Expenses | OpEx as Percentage of Gross Profit | |
| Q1 2018 | $2,685 | $2,196 | $489 | 29980 | $ 89.6 | $ 73.2 | $ 16.3 | 18.2% | $1,053 | 215% |
| Q2 2018 | $3,304 | $2,667 | $637 | 40740 | $ 81.1 | $ 65.5 | $ 15.6 | 19.3% | $1,240 | 195% |
| Q3 2018 | $6,047 | $4,525 | $1,522 | 83500 | $ 72.4 | $ 54.2 | $ 18.2 | 25.2% | $1,107 | 73% |
| Q4 2018 | $6,322 | $4,786 | $1,536 | 90700 | $ 69.7 | $ 52.8 | $ 16.9 | 24.3% | $1,029 | 67% |
| Q1 2019 | $3,508 | $2,973 | $535 | 63019 | $ 55.7 | $ 47.2 | $ 8.5 | 15.3% | $1,088 | 203% |
| Q2 2019 | $5,265 | $4,360 | $905 | 95356 | $ 55.2 | $ 45.7 | $ 9.5 | 17.2% | $1,088 | 120% |
| Q3 2019 | $5,219 | $4,131 | $1,088 | 97186 | $ 53.7 | $ 42.5 | $ 11.2 | 20.8% | $930 | 85% |
| Q4 2019 | $6,235 | $4,934 | $1,301 | 112095 | $ 55.6 | $ 44.0 | $ 11.6 | 20.9% | $1,032 | 79% |
| Q1 2020 | $4,778 | $3,821 | $957 | 88496 | $ 54.0 | $ 43.2 | $ 10.8 | 20.0% | $951 | 99% |
| Q2 2020 | $4,751 | $3,862 | $889 | 90891 | $ 52.3 | $ 42.5 | $ 9.8 | 18.7% | $940 | 106% |
| Q3 2020 | $7,214 | $5,506 | $1,708 | 139593 | $ 51.7 | $ 39.4 | $ 12.2 | 23.7% | $1,254 | 73% |
| Q4 2020 | $8,913 | $7,070 | $1,843 | 180667 | $ 49.3 | $ 39.1 | $ 10.2 | 20.7% | $1,491 | 81% |
| Q1 2021 | $8,484 | $6,617 | $1,867 | 184877 | $ 45.9 | $ 35.8 | $ 10.1 | 22.0% | $1,621 | 87% |
| Q2 2021 | $9,852 | $7,307 | $2,545 | 201304 | $ 48.9 | $ 36.3 | $ 12.6 | 25.8% | $1,572 | 62% |
| Q3 2021 | $11,778 | $8,384 | $3,394 | 241391 | $ 48.8 | $ 34.7 | $ 14.1 | 28.8% | $1,656 | 49% |
| Q4 2021 | $15,653 | $11,085 | $4,568 | 308650 | $ 50.7 | $ 35.9 | $ 14.8 | 29.2% | $2,234 | 49% |
| Q1 2022 | $16,182 | $11,322 | $4,860 | 310048 | $ 52.2 | $ 36.5 | $ 15.7 | 30.0% | $1,857 | 38% |
Taking a high level view of the performance since 2018, a few things are obvious.
1) Gross profit per car is headed towards $20k or more.
- Peaked in 2018 around $17k when S&X were about half of sales and when Performance 3s were heavily prioritized during Production Hell
- Fell to around $10k per car for 9 consecutive quarters
- Steadily has risen since a year ago
- Naïve linear extrapolation takes us to $20k by Q1 ‘23
- I expect the trend to actually accelerate from here if per-car revenue starts reaching like $60k with cost staying around $35k, giving $25k gross profit, or more optimistically maybe $63k rev and $33k cost for $30k gross profit per car. Not likely sustainable long term, but excellent for next few years.
- Note that recently most of the expense rise has come from Elon’s stock plan, expedited shipping, and increasingly ambitious R&D efforts not directly tied to car development, manufacturing and sales
- As of Q1, OpEx is still eating a very substantial 38% of auto gross profit. Therefore, net income will grow much faster than vehicle deliveries for the next few years as operating margin asymptotically approaches gross margin.
- Average revenue per vehicle in Q1 ‘22 at $52.4k was unchanged from Q2 ‘20, which is the closest comparison quarter because of seasonality, similar amounts of S&X sales in mix, and COVID mayhem in Q1 ‘20.
- 15-20% price increases remain, about half of which went into effect in late Aug thru early Nov and thus will probably hit in Q2. The rest came in March and will not hit until Q4 at the earliest.
- The nominal US Producer Price Index has increased 15% (source) since the beginning of 2021.
- Tesla’s average cost of goods sold per vehicle has been flat at $35-36k throughout that time period, even as high-cost S&X sales rose from almost nothing in Q1 & Q2 2021 to 14k+ in Q4 ‘21 and Q1 ‘22.
- Tesla does have many long-term supply contracts that cause a lag before inflation hits them, but after 5 quarters we still haven’t seen CoGS increase. Inflation seems to have simply paused the trend of declining costs.
- Primary factor has been producing more in Shanghai than Fremont
- New factories once ramped will save $thousands per car on manufacturing, shipping and tariffs
If deliveries merely grow 60% annually in ‘22 and ‘23, we’ll have 2.4 million sold in ‘23.
At $20k gross profit per car we’d make $48B auto gross profit in ‘23. With $8B OpEx, 10% provisioned for income tax, and 1.2B shares outstanding, ‘23 earnings per share would be $30. This is my BEAR CASE. (Remember, this is excluding ZEV credits and counting Energy as zero. These might add another $1-4 to EPS.)
A reasonably bullish scenario would be delivery growth of 80% and $25k gross profit per car. Now we get ‘23 deliveries of 3 million cars and $50 EPS.
Upside even from there:
1) Tesla may raise prices even more, or close orders for lower variants, or require inclusion of nonstandard extras.
- Hertz rentals and Vegas Loop generating millions of rest rides
- “Competition” and Hertz paying for Tesla advertisements
- Potentially sustained oil price above $100/barrel
- Cybertruck blowing minds in America
- Twitter driving even more social media engagement
- European anti-Putin government and grassroots efforts to eliminate oil demand
2) Europe may have enough demand to sustain Model Y sales prices of $70k+ deep into 2023 even as Giga Berlin has begun dumping volume into that market.
3) FSD take rate and price may materially increase, especially with Beta rollout beyond USA and purported radical improvements with V11 (single stack).
4) Model Y production ramp at Austin/Berlin/Shanghai Part 2 may be legendary, considering that Model Y manufacturing is well understood now and we have heard of no substantial issues with the production processes. Also, Tesla has guided for supply constraints to ease around the end of ‘22
- The high end of guidance from Elon for Berlin is 10k per week by end of Q4 ‘22. Austin would likely be faster. Call it 22k per week combined which is 1.14M annualized. Fremont could be at 0.6M annualized, which is its nominal capacity. Shanghai may grow 50% to 1.2M annualized. Total would be 3M annual production heading into ‘23, bumping ‘23 full-year projections to more like 3.5-4.5M, wow!!
6) Tesla Energy might finally make money.
7) FSD may, finally, be safe enough for initial robotaxi rollout. Maybe
.- It seems the whole leadership team actually believes this is more likely than not. Elon has been saying it flat out, and Andrej took a long vacation. Project Vacation secured?
Even a year ago I didn’t anticipate anything close to this. The whole business is just ludicrously strong. The Master Plan is all coming together at once.
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If I remember correctly, Elon has some submarine-pods developed to get people out of caves underwater -- he did not get to use them, other than an offer to shove it up his backside...
So, just dig a tunnel from the sea into the steel plant (AFAIK, its right on the shore) and transport them out one by one using the infamous pods
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Yup, from the tailgate.
If the truck was low enough and the tool wasn't near the tailgate. Of course those trucks didn't squat down and have a built in ramp.
Yeah, the business is running on all cylinders right now and it's glorious to behold knowing how things were going just four years ago. Yes the Shanghai lockdown is going to goof up Q2 this year but that's just a speed bump and it doesn't change anything about the strength of the core business.
The market might lag in the short term due to various issues, but in the long term the market always catches up to strong fundamentals.
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