Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SmokyPeat]

Dan Ives just slashed his price target by 29%. Citing Shanghai production issues, and Twitter fiasco.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Goodbye.

Welcome Everett Ruess, and I thank you for your down vote.

 

[ZachF]

He's got a lack of girlfriend problem, again.

(and that tends to be when he listens to Thiel & Co more, out there on the alt-R)

I wanna see the AOC pair up just for entertainment value

 

[Nocturnal]

As Tesla buyers we are also supporting the CCP if our cars are Shanghai built, it's pretty much impossible to avoid doing so, as with most products these days, so not really a valid point!

That aside, I agree with your sentiment to Mr.

It's a valid point, I'm sorry you can't understand it. You could buy a Lucid instead I guess. I hear the Saudis are very progressive.

Or a VW, the company that kills 5k people a year in Europe alone because of Dieselgate. Or GM, or Ford, companies that spent decades fighting against things like pollution controls, seatbelts, unleaded gasoline...

 

[SN_8]

Mostly ex- Mod: I've locked this thread and the twitter thread. I'm unable to take more detailed action due to the volume of posts. Everyone, take some time to cool off. I will unlock before going to bed (Pacific time) or Audie might unlock sooner.

No political statements anywhere.
No insulting other members.
Comments about Elon purchasing Twitter ONLY in the twitter thread.
Only things relevant to the company or the stock in this thread.

--ggr.

It was a nice few minutes while it lasted.

 

[Favguy]

Wow, we are at the S&P 500 entry price, again, after 18 months of phenomenal execution.

Yep, crazy times. At times like these, it helps to remind ourselves just how stupid the market is and how it always over reacts massively in both directions. We were too early to be at over $1200 a month or three back. We are most certainly ludicrously undervalued now, but just imagine how we're going to be feeling and where we'll be at after the next recovery once we've overshot in the other direction!

Let us enjoy the ride, as unlike most of the rest of the investing world, we know enough to see how this is going to pan out eventually, even with Elon constantly upsetting someone or other...

 

[Singuy]

For the care bears who are worried that no Republicans buy teslas anyways.

Survey puts Republicans at 30% vs 38% democrats.

Tesla owners are more Republican than you'd think

Elon Musk has trained his Twitter guns on top Democrats such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Now he's going after Joe Biden.

www.cnn.com

 

[Featsbeyond50]

What Tesla is aggressively pursuing with respect to car models is explosive production volume growth because they can’t keep up with demand for the S3XY lineup even at outrageous prices that were unthinkable just two years ago. Elon explicitly said that 2022 is all about production growth and FSD development.

The people saying this are like the morons and purveyors of FUD saying in 2012 that Apple should’ve focused more on new product development instead of iPhone, iPad and MacBook improvements and production growth. And you know what? Those fools missed out on one of the biggest increases in market cap of any company in history. Or worse, some of them established short positions on AAPL. Yikes.

When you have a winning product portfolio with deep competitive advantages and no end to demand growth in sight, you double down on what’s already working to minimize risk and complexity, especially if you’re a manufacturer. Management has reiterated this every single time they’ve been asked about new products lately and still people aren’t absorbing the message.

Additionally, in the coming quarters Semi, Cybertruck and Roadster sales will launch. 4 vehicle models —> 7 models. Do they need even more new products than that to satisfy Wall Street? Even if they wanted to, they don’t even have the labor, chip and battery supply to cover mass production of new products beyond this in the near term.

If by 2024 FSD isn’t ready, at least for Loop usage, then robotaxi production can be postponed easily enough. Tesla is agile and flexible enough in their plans to accommodate that. Or they could just quietly build up the fleet and keep it in inventory in anticipation of the most profound single bit flip in the history of computers.

Unfortunately, fund managers don't see things the way you AND I see things. Fund managers think Cruise and Waymo are ahead of Tesla and Tesla's FSD is dangerous and could be outlawed. They want to see Tesla focus on the automotive business and grow out more consumer options because if they don't, other manufacturers will catch up by offering variety verses Tesla's two models that aren't really that different from each other.

Here's the problem. Elon is aligning himself with the GOP likely for political expediency. Are other CEOs Republican or vote Republican? Yes, probably. But the difference is he has a megaphone when they do not. When you say things like the Democratic Party is the party of hate, after witnessing Charlottesville, white replacement theory, and everyone bowing down to their cult leader Trump, it's a huge difference. So yes, I canceled my Cybertruck order and I'm planning on selling my M3 and getting another luxury EV. I can't stand thinking that my $ is supporting these kinds of ideologies. Couple that with the Twitter deal, I'm officially done with Elon. I feel bad for those that work there and have to deal with this lunatic. So Rivian or Polestar here I come. And I'm happy to do so.

Mods, I think politics should be allowed on this thread if related to how they will affect share price. This post however, has no place here.

 

[Accident]

48 MYP delivered yesterday in just Norway and Sweden. The highest number I've seen so far.

I think my one day data point is enough to be considered a trend, right?

 

[ZachF]

I don't follow that sort of celeb-media. Are they dating ?

…….

So .... let's hope he starts dating someone again soon, and that they all live happily ever after, and don't have any time for anything outside the (very tight) day job except for each other.

They had a funny Twitter exchange a few months ago.

On the second part, hopefully not another Amber Heard… looks like he (and we…) dodged a bullet there.

 

[Nocturnal]

Just a reminder folks, the ignore button is a wonderful tool. (and if you use that on me I totally understand)

 

[Favguy]

It's a valid point, I'm sorry you can't understand it. You could buy a Lucid instead I guess. I hear the Saudis are very progressive.

Or a VW, the company that kills 5k people a year in Europe alone because of Dieselgate. Or GM, or Ford, companies that spent decades fighting against things like pollution controls, seatbelts, unleaded gasoline...

Hey, I own a good ol' USofA built model S! The Saudi's can keep their overpriced lucid, I'll only be driving a Tesla.

My point is you just can't use the "buying Chinese is bad" argument when one of our own production facilities is also pouring huge revenues to the CCP. Well you can, but it's Hypocritical.

 

[ZachF]

Hey, I own a good ol' USofA built model S! The Saudi's can keep their overpriced lucid, I'll only drive a Tesla.

Factoid:

Tesla and BMW are the only automakers that make more cars in the US than they sell.

 

[Nocturnal]

Hey, I own a good ol' USofA built model S! The Saudi's can keep their overpriced lucid, I'll only drive a Tesla.

My point is you just can't use the "buying Chinese is bad" argument when one of our own production facilities is also pouring huge revenues to the CCP. Well you can, but it's Hypocritical.

I believe that directly supporting a Chinese company is worse than indirectly supporting one. And to continue that logic, then everything we as Americans do winds up supporting the GOP as well. So someone selling their Tesla doesn't make sense.

 

[ZachF]

I believe that directly supporting a Chinese company is worse than indirectly supporting one. And to continue that logic, then everything we as Americans winds up supporting the GOP as well. So someone selling their Tesla doesn't make sense.

I’m a total heretic… I eat both Chick-fil-a and Ben and Jerry’s!

 

[UncaNed]

The Tweet advocated using FCF surplus to buy back shares, not reduction of cash on hand.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527137981206671360

Tweet text:
@KoguanLeo

Agree!
@MartinViecha
, Tesla must announce immediately and buy back $5 billion of Tesla shares from its free cash flow this year and $10 billion from its free cash flow next year, without effecting its existing $18 billion cash reserves with ZERO debt.

How would that work?? Tesla essentially buys back shares from itself or something??

I don't get it.

 

[ZachF]

So what do you guys think today, is the market going to choose violence again?

 

[juanmedina]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1527262800661422081

 

[dl003]

So I’ll go ahead and call the bottom at 622. Hoping it doesn’t go that low but history tends to repeat itself.

Biggest TSLA drops:

2016 50% (57-28. Solar city acquisition)
2019 52% (76-37. Model 3 “production hell”)
2020 64% (193-70. COVID)
2022 50%? (1243- 622)?

I’ve been through all 3 prior 50% drops and haven’t sold a share yet. Luckily I don’t do options so I can afford to hold. Of course macro events are heavily influencing this drop but I also I think MMs are trying to flush out all the highly leveraged option holders, buyer beware.

So except for COVID, there’s been support at a 50% drop. Having said that, I don’t want it to drop any lower than it is now. But it could.

I remain long term as bullish as ever.

Coincidentally, 620 is also on a support trendline that has extended from the Day 0 post-split peak.

We can also go all the way down to 500 which is the weekly EMA 200 which couldn't be broken even by the mighty COVID crash.

I know many members are not as enthusiastic about technicals but they have worked for me and enabled me to buy more shares that I wouldn't have otherwise been able to afford.

 

[ZachF]

How's that work?? Tesla essentially buys back shares from itself or something??

I don't get it.

They use profits to buy shares on the open market.

Share buy backs are a way to possibly return money to investors by decreasing the total amount of shares in existence.