Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mengy]

For the care bears who are worried that no Republicans buy teslas anyways.

Survey puts Republicans at 30% vs 38% democrats.

Tesla owners are more Republican than you'd think

Elon Musk has trained his Twitter guns on top Democrats such as Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Now he's going after Joe Biden.

www.cnn.com

That's no surprise, the majority of people buy products they like no matter what political affiliation the CEO is, nor however the CEO conducts his personal life. There is a vocal minority who conduct crusades against this or that based on feelings and emotions, but most people don't really care about that kind of stuff, they simply buy what they want and enjoy their lives. Steve Jobs was a terrible person yet iPhones have always sold incredibly well. Bill Gates ain't no angel yet Microsoft and Windows are giants to this day.

Great products sell themselves, and the truth is no amount of effort by any vocal minority will change that.

 

[mongo]

So what's up with the accelerated delivery of MY Tesla offers for waiting buyers?

279 miles of range vs 330 LR
0-60 in 5.0 seconds vs 4.7 LR

Is this the new form factor with front and rear gigacastings and new batteries?
Why would anybody go for lower range and acceleration?

Yeah, these are Austin cars.
Gets the newest, shiniest Y sooner.
Price is $3k lower than LR also.

 

[ZachF]

They want Tesla to buy back shares as the profits roll in. They can’t buy back shares on credit. I mean I guess they could use a margin account but that sounds like a disastrously bad idea.

If your company is issuing new net debt while performing share buybacks, functionally you are borrowing money to buy back shares. Poorly run firms do this often… GM did it a whole bunch during the teens after it had its debt discharged in bankruptcy.

 

[15Peter20]

Looks like my numerology-based trading is looking good today:

Limit order at $694.20.

Filled at $694.20

Day's Range

694.11 - 715.73

That was a big bounce you caused!

 

[juanmedina]

Rivian and Lucid +6%... thanks Dan

 

[ZachF]

Existing home sales fell in April to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic

Rising mortgage rates and continued tight supply caused home sales to drop to the lowest level since the start of the pandemic.

www.cnbc.com

cooling in progress ...

Unfortunately, I think the question of recession is becoming less and less of a maybe.

Europe, USA and China are probably all in recession now.

 

[elasalle]

Unfortunately, I think the question of recession is becoming less and less of a maybe.

Europe, USA and China are probably all in recession now.

but market is still thinking inflation right? So can we have a soft landing please ...

 

[henchman24]

but market is still thinking inflation right? So can we have a soft landing please ...

Don't worry, when inflation dies because of recession, we will have a depression to worry about. Win-win-win.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Rivian and Lucid +6%... thanks Dan

Dan Ives today showed exactly how clueless of an analyst he is.

The may 2nd quarter had lost a total of anywhere from 50,000-100,000 of production for this year. That’s like 4-8% of 2022’s total production.

Yet he slashed his PT by 27%. Sure Dan. He also didn’t alter his PT after Tesla blew away his EPS estimate in Q1.

I expect the streak of bull side analyst to continue showing their true ignorance over the next month

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Unfortunately, I think the question of recession is becoming less and less of a maybe.

Europe, USA and China are probably all in recession now.

You must have missed that April retail sales data.

You know….the one that blew away expectations

 

[betstarship]

Boring Company's Vegas Strip Loop Nearing Final Approval - Connect CRE

Casino operators have said above-road surface congestion is stymying growth opportunities at the ever popular venue. The newly drilled tunnels will drastically reduce drive times around the heavily congested Las Vegas Strip, and for the users fares will be somewhere between an Uber ride and a...

www.connectcre.com

"The underground loop being built by Elon Musk’s Boring Company will allow Tesla programmed vehicles to travel over 100 mph through the underground tunnel with no congestion. It’s expected to receive full approval at the June 2 Las Vegas City Council meeting.

The cost of the project is being funded by the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Bureau, the casinos who will have stops along the way and the Boring Company, who will be tasked with operating the system and receiving the revenue generated by the rides.

At full build-out, the Loop will have 51 stations and take 57,000 passengers an hour."

So, at full build out - does the math -

57000 passengers / hr x 24 hrs / day x 365 days / year x $1 / passenger = $499.32 M a year in revenue just from Vegas alone.

How would this revenue be shared between Boring / Vegas / Tesla?

Also, that's one municipality, there's over 3000 counties and 19000 municipalities in the US alone.

 

[cliff harris]

Dan Ives today showed exactly how clueless of an analyst he is.

The may 2nd quarter had lost a total of anywhere from 50,000-100,000 of production for this year. That’s like 4-8% of 2022’s total production.

Yet he slashed his PT by 27%.

What especially annoys me when people do this, is that Tesla, if they know they can only produce X vehicles instead of 2X, can simply choose to build the most expensive variants, prioritize the performance Ys, and the Ys with FSDs etc.. The ones with frankly gratuitous profit margins!
Plus if the parts are still being delivered, there is scope to make up the shortfall over time with extra shifts... its just really bad analysis.

 

[betstarship]

Some more info:

The Boring Company San Antonio Loop's net revenue expected to be $25M per year, fares to start at $10

On Wednesday, May 18, The Alamo Regional Mobility Authority (RMA) board was briefed on more details about The Boring Company’s (TBC) proposed tunnel from the San Antonio International Airport to downtown. Bexar County Public Works director and county engineer Renee Green briefed the Alamo RMA...

www.teslarati.com

"The San Antonio tunnel project is expected to generate a net revenue of up to $25 million per year, with fares between $10 to $12."

Add a zero to the Las Vegas project for a $10 fare rather than $1 ... ~$5B a year in revenue.

 

[MP3Mike]

So, at full build out - does the math -

57000 passengers / hr x 24 hrs / day x 365 days / year x $1 / passenger = $499.32 M a year in revenue just from Vegas alone.

How would this revenue be shared between Boring / Vegas / Tesla?

Also, that's one municipality, there's over 3000 counties and 19000 municipalities in the US alone.

They aren't going to run at capacity 24x7... Probably not anywhere near that.

And the only revenue Tesla is likely to see is from the handful of vehicles they sell to the Boring company.

 

[betstarship]

They aren't going to run at capacity 24x7... Probably not anywhere near that.

And the only revenue Tesla is likely to see is from the handful of vehicles they sell to the Boring company.

Are you sure? Which company are riders going to interface with in terms of a mobile app to hail a ride...? Would these Tesla vehicles strictly be sold to Boring company and be used in the tunnels or, as mentioned by Elon in various talks, have ways to get surface-side and go via roads outside of the tunnels?

(not asking leading questions, I really don't know)

 

[Nocturnal]

They aren't going to run at capacity 24x7... Probably not anywhere near that.

And the only revenue Tesla is likely to see is from the handful of vehicles they sell to the Boring company.

A nice bit of "free" advertising at least.

 

[MP3Mike]

Some more info:

The Boring Company San Antonio Loop's net revenue expected to be $25M per year, fares to start at $10

On Wednesday, May 18, The Alamo Regional Mobility Authority (RMA) board was briefed on more details about The Boring Company’s (TBC) proposed tunnel from the San Antonio International Airport to downtown. Bexar County Public Works director and county engineer Renee Green briefed the Alamo RMA...

www.teslarati.com

"The San Antonio tunnel project is expected to generate a net revenue of up to $25 million per year, with fares between $10 to $12."

Add a zero to the Las Vegas project for a $10 fare rather than $1 ... ~$5B a year in revenue.

Still no. Look at some of the details they provide:

The presentation stated that 100 Tesla vehicles could transport about 32,000 passengers through the San Antonio tunnel daily on average. It would have a maximum capacity of transporting 4,500 passengers per hour with 100 vehicles. If the tunnel’s Tesla fleet increased to 350 vehicles, it would be able to accommodate 112,000 commuters daily and 15,750 passengers per hour from the airport to downtown.

So while they have a capacity of 4,500/hour, they are only expecting 32,000/day. So they are only expecting an overall ~30% utilization. That might be higher in Las Vegas, or it might be lower because they build out for a higher peak capacity.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What especially annoys me when people do this, is that Tesla, if they know they can only produce X vehicles instead of 2X, can simply choose to build the most expensive variants, prioritize the performance Ys, and the Ys with FSDs etc.. The ones with frankly gratuitous profit margins!
Plus if the parts are still being delivered, there is scope to make up the shortfall over time with extra shifts... its just really bad analysis.

What’s worse is that if you go back to webush’s earlier notes from the last 6 months, their base case PT of 1400 (with a bull case of 1800) is predicated on Tesla achieving a 2 million annual run rate by the end of 2022. Absolutely nothing has changed there.

He also mentions 6 months ago, his PT was based on Tesla expanding margins…..which they did. While Q2 margins might take a hit, they will continue to expand margins in Q3/Q4.

Dan Ives is a story/narrative driven analyst who really uses top line numbers without doing any of the actual work.

 

[Cattledog]

So what's up with the accelerated delivery of MY Tesla offers for waiting buyers?

279 miles of range vs 330 LR
0-60 in 5.0 seconds vs 4.7 LR

Is this the new form factor with front and rear gigacastings and new batteries?
Why would anybody go for lower range and acceleration?

If Tesla is battery constrained, they can stretch the number of cars they sell by offering the lower mileage variant. Not positive that's the reason, but may be.

 

[Cattledog]

You know, I was sort of hoping we'd go through a Roaring '20s, and then we all could have tried to sneak out the back door in mid-2028, but right now it feels like we missed the memo that changed things to Roaring '21.