Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

670 resistance breaking would allow a nice little move up.

. . . .give us a little bit more . . . .what's next?

 

[henchman24]

. . . .give us a little bit more . . . .what's next?

An Elon tweet that starts arguing around here.

 

[Alphacrux]

If not already posted, three Tesla presentations at Hot Chips on August 23rd:

DOJO: The Microarchitecture of Tesla’s Exa-Scale Computer

Emil Talpes, Tesla

DOJO - Super-Compute System Scaling for ML Training

Bill Chang, Tesla

Beyond Compute - Enabling AI through System Integration

Ganesh Venkataramanan, Tesla Motors

Advance Program

A Symposium on High Performance Chips

hotchips.org

 

[JRP3]

Has it affected their order backlog?

Didn't @The Accountant recently have his delivery date moved up?

 

[jbcarioca]

Never been to Poconos but The Beach Boys song always made it seem appealing.

Last I knew Kokomo was in Indiana. I've been there but I would not sing about it.
The Beach Boys - Kokomo (1988) - YouTube
I agree the Pokonos are much more appealing;

The Poconos! Or, How I Couldn’t Stop Singing The Beach Boys “Kokomo” Incessantly, For Days On End…

“Because we’re going to the Poconos, we’ll get there fast and then we’ll take it slow, that’s where we wanna goooo… Go to the Poconos!” -The Beach Bo…

www.benedictbeerblog.com

Neither are well supplied with Tesla sightings although the Pokonos are gaining.

 

[Singuy]

Didn't @The Accountant recently have his delivery date moved up?

It was moved down, then moved up, but still later than his original date I believe.

 

[The Accountant]

Any way to track the FSD option effect on delivery wait? That's an outsized effect on gross margin because all the development work is done anyway, with addtional FSD sales flowing straight through to gross profit.

Cheers!

Maybe Help for Q2 Margins

I used the Model Y tracker as it has a higher sample size. I took only Model Y LR deliveries and excluded Performance as we know that the Performance model is prioritized.
There is a slight prioritization of FSD but what I noticed is that higher base price vehicles were shipped faster than the lower base price vehicles meaning that some 2022 orders with the higher pricing may be cutting the line to optimize Q2.

For vehicles delivered in Q2 or confirmed for Q2:

Orders with FSD had a 5.7 mth wait time while no FSD had 7 mth wait time. So slight difference.​

​

Orders with older base price from 2021 had a 7.6 mth wait time but orders with higher 2022 pricing had a 3.7 mth wait time (20% of deliveries for Q2 have 2022 order dates). There are still many 2021 Model Y LR orders on the Tracker that have delivery dates for Q3 and Q4 meaning the 2022 orders jumped ahead of them.​

​

My reasoning may be flawed and I'm open to a different interpretation.

 

[henchman24]

Breaking above 679-680 and holding, can allow a test of 700. The hammer down on 680 was bigger than the 670, so this might need a Nasdaq breakout to 11,580. A Nasdaq bleed below 11,520 likely will have a re-test of 670.

 

[bkp_duke]

Maybe Help for Q2 Margins

I used the Model Y tracker as it has a higher sample size. I took only Model Y LR deliveries and excluded Performance as we know that th ePerformance model is prioritized.
There is a slight prioritization of FSD but what I noticed is that higher base price vehicles were shipped faster than the lower base price vehicles meaning that some 2022 orders with the higher pricing may be cutting the line to optimize Q2.

For vehicles delivered in Q2 or confirmed for Q2:

Orders with FSD had a 5.7 mth wait time while no FSD had 7 mth wait time. So slight difference.​

​

Orders with older base price from 2021 had a 7.6 mth wait time but orders with higher 2022 pricing had a 3.7 mth wait time (20% of deliveries for Q2 have 2022 order dates). There are still many 2021 Model Y LR orders on the Tracker that have delivery dates for Q3 and Q4 meaning the 2022 orders jumped ahead of them.​

​

My reasoning may be flawed and I'm open to a different interpretation.

There are always the wildcard variables too:
1) Regulatory credits (always a big unknown)
2) Deferred tax accounting
3) Deferred FSD revenue to be recognized
4) Decreased costs vs. increased costs (i.e. less shipping costs b/c less ships left Shanghai vs. paying for employee food/housing during the Shanghai lockdown).

Never a dull moment in TSLA financials.

 

[jbcarioca]

I knew I said that to AudubonB for a reason!

That is very unkind. Making such a reference to that very nice young man is inappropriate when he's nearly two decades younger than am I. For that matter there are quite a few very experienced people posting here. Of course, we forgive you for your youth and inexperience. In time you'll overcome those weaknesses.

Anyway, Tesla supporters come in all shapes, sizes, colors and maturity. Everyone should feel welcome here.
note: this is not labeling with an /s because it is not so intended. It is intended to be [modestly] humorous.

 

[jbcarioca]

There are always the wildcard variables too:
1) Regulatory credits (always a big unknown)
2) Deferred tax accounting
3) Deferred FSD revenue to be recognized
4) Decreased costs vs. increased costs (i.e. less shipping costs b/c less ships left Shanghai vs. paying for employee food/housing during the Shanghai lockdown).

Never a dull moment in TSLA financials.

FSD itself is thus far a wildcard also.

 

[henchman24]

Vix is going to try to break 28 and go lower. If it does, we can get to the lowest Vix ignoring expiry day since May 4th. A close below 27 would be very bullish.

 

[wipster]

That is very unkind. Making such a reference to that very nice young man is inappropriate when he's nearly two decades younger than am I. For that matter there are quite a few very experienced people posting here. Of course, we forgive you for your youth and inexperience. In time you'll overcome those weaknesses.

Anyway, Tesla supporters come in all shapes, sizes, colors and maturity. Everyone should feel welcome here.
note: this is not labeling with an /s because it is not so intended. It is intended to be [modestly] humorous.

?

 

[lafrisbee]

Shanghai

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Whole Mars Catalog Retweeted



Ross Gerber
@GerberKawasaki

Tesla Shanghai is up and running full speed ahead. Great news for tesla. Phew. $TSLA

 

[Stretch2727]

I think investors (including me), may be underestimating Berlin and Austin for Q2. It can ramp very quickly.
Elon's comments from the Q1 earnings call:
View attachment 807829

I have worked in manufacturing in the US, EU and Asia, not cars, but mostly electronics. In Asia the "human" aspect of the ramp tends not to be the limiting factor. The pool of labor is huge and getting the right ones on board is pretty easy. In the US and EU getting the right people on board and getting them trained usually is the limiting factor.

Obviously you can't generalize, every situation is different.

Let see how this goes but my guess is the ramp will be limited by the hiring and training of people both in Texas and Berlin. I think Tesla knows this and one reason for the Cyber Rodeo etc. Get people on board quickly.

 

[wipster]

That is very unkind. Making such a reference to that very nice young man is inappropriate when he's nearly two decades younger than am I. For that matter there are quite a few very experienced people posting here. Of course, we forgive you for your youth and inexperience. In time you'll overcome those weaknesses.

Anyway, Tesla supporters come in all shapes, sizes, colors and maturity. Everyone should feel welcome here.
note: this is not labeling with an /s because it is not so intended. It is intended to be [modestly] humorous.

BTW I'm probably older than you my friend... wiser? Now that I can't say. Anyway I was under the impression that farfegnugen meant "driving pleasure" albeit from a VW perspective. My apologies to AudubonB if he took offense and farfegnugen to you too JB!

May the farce be with you!

/s

 

[lafrisbee]

aannnd...

Tesla Giga Shanghai Has Produced 26K Cars Since Resuming Production After Lockdown

Tesla Giga Shanghai has produced 26,000 vehicles since resuming production a month ago after the lockdown eased. With a limited number of workers, parts, and logistical difficulties, the factory was able to achieve more than 45% production, compared to the pre-shutdown month.

www.tesmanian.com

 

[henchman24]

It took until 11,493 to break TSLA below the breakout. Market is showing the bears are not quite done yet.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I wonder what they meant by "electric units".

It means that the sponsor of REUTERS news 'features' is now paying in Yuan instead of Rubbles... /s

Cheers!

 

[OrthoSurg]

I remain of the opinion that TSLA's weakness has primarily been Shanghai (not Tesla's fault) if anything, and not Elon's politics or Twitter stuff or FUD or Tesla arson. (Even if you include all the obvious arson cases over the last few days, Tesla's still catch fire significantly less than gas cars) . Anyway, with the news out that Shanghai has not only resumed but has come back with record daily production numbers, I think we're headed back up. FOMO will be intense, so we should go up quickly.

That will help calm the fears of this oversold market.

Do I have the permission to print that post, put it in a frame and put it on my bedroom ceiling if I ever wake up at night