Indeed - makes me think they didn't actually do any deliveries, but the data didn't hit the registration system until the next day.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Indeed - makes me think they didn't actually do any deliveries, but the data didn't hit the registration system until the next day.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Sorry, that does not work as a methodology. Their estimate changed by 7,800 units in the last update. That's nearly 12 days of production, but updated in the last day of the quarter? They were wrong, and scrambled to cover their asses. Too small to admit their problem.
We literally have screen shots the day before the end-of-quarter. It's not kosher to claim we were right when their low-ball estimates were dragging down the SP for weeks.
At a miminum, they should be displaying error bars and confidence intervals. A hindcast would be the next step to demonstrate validity in their model. But they're not doing any of that because they are hacks.
I am simple trying to determine if they are paid hacks.
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I guess right after rating this post Informative, @Lycanthrope rushed to order one pair of second hand socks (hopefully before they run out of stock)
Hey, that's cheating, I rated the post BEFORE the socks/panties video was added after.
Otherwise would have given it a "love" rating, of course
shlokavica22
Member
They adjusted numbers more than once (Q4 is only one of the instances).
Willingly, or unwillingly they provided a "source" for countless bear articles at a time TSLA was fighting hard to ramp up production.
I can understand the doubt from the side of people with deep statistical knowledge, because by adjusting the numbers, two main reasons pop up- incompetence or/and foul play.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Why is TMC giving credit on its home page to "the (Bloomberg) tracker has been accurate so far, forecasting Tesla’s actual output over the two past quarters within less than a percentage point", when this has already been debunked here on this thread by Karen, Artful and others?
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Yikes, Elon has been kidnapped by cats. Or it is a dog false flag operation...
Or it's April 1... who knows...
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Bloomberg's final estimate was still issued before Tesla reported their numbers, right?
Tesla registered new VINs until the last moment: 3.5k VINs on December 30, and Bloomberg had this long averaging method back then, so the time that passed had an effect too.
I don't think screenshots exist that show the Bloomberg estimate change after Tesla reported, right?
X Fan
Active Member
Some awfully good food....
Maybe, visiting Gulfstream? Their main plant is just outside Sav airport (SAV has a supercharger that I charge at when traveling to/from NC-FL).
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
A really big port among other things.
Maybe he just wanted to visit. It really is a beautiful town if I do say so myself.
Dan
Respectfully, I have come to appreciate the difference between a company publishing a paper / advertisement / press release, and an actual engineering sample on my desk. I'm a huge fan of Maxwell's supercaps and I believe them more than some asian company claiming a 200% energy density increase without a product ever materializing. I have seen many announcements of wondrous new cell chemistries but rarely they have ever come to market.
And I'd love to be wrong and have new Maxwell tech become part of the Tesla lineup and working fabulously. I doubt it will happen quickly though. It's safer not to assume miracles.
His jet is a Gulfstream. So maybe it's there for maintenance.
SebastianR
Active Member
March numbers in Sweden was lower than I hoped. M3 was only 5th best selling car.
M3 1005
MS 72
MX 29
First, that's not bad at all. It is much more than Sweden hat in the past.
Second, I think we need to be careful to not have unrealistic expectations. E.g. Germany: I do think that Germany will be more than 1000 cars in March. However, I don't think it will be Norway levels of cars: Think of it this way - we know that Teslas on the road sell Teslas. And so I think we should temper our expectations of market potential by looking into past success of Model S / X. Europe will be a huge market. But it will take a few months to fully develop (which also gives Tesla a moment to establish their delivery structures).
March numbers in Sweden was lower than I hoped. M3 was only 5th best selling car.
M3 1005
MS 72
MX 29
Wow!
I changed your smiley, because THAT is a pretty strong number in a country with 10m. people and far travel distances. I doubt that that more crowders, smaller countries can match up to!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Bloomberg's final estimate occurs when the quarter ends. That's when carsonight took his 'before' screenshots.
Here's the real problem: explain how a late registration of 3,500 VINs increased their Quarterly estimate by 7,800 units at the last minute? Then remains unseen by diligent Users until after the end of quarter? There is no math that creates this behavior. This is not a credible explanation. The answer lies elsewhere.
These are just some of the methodological problems with the BB Tracker. It is of dubious reliability.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Here's @tsunamiofhurt (Model3VINs) describing that Bloomberg changed their Q4 estimate on January 30:
Tesla's report was issued on January 2, which was three days later.
So the claim that Bloomberg changed their Q4 production estimates to match Tesla's numbers retroactively is simply false:
What you accuse them of never happened. It's not the truth. It's not a thing.
The last minute adjustments you saw on January 30 was simply the Bloomberg model reacting to last minute VIN registrations by Tesla on the last days of the quarter:
Model 3 VINs on Twitter
"#Tesla registered 3,569 new #Model3 VINs. ~52% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 193556."
"#Tesla registered 3,569 new #Model3 VINs. ~52% estimated to be dual motor. Highest VIN is 193556."
New data results in new estimates - and that happened in this quarter as well: yesterday the Bloomberg tracker updated their Q1 estimate, reacting to the new VINs Tesla reported on Saturday.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
So you discount the engineering samples provided to other scientists at the link I provided?
BTW, the dry electrode tech has nothing to do with bty chemistry, they specifically say in the Abstract to their paper that it is a manufacturing technique which has been applied to numerous chemistries.
Same for ultracaps: unrelated issue.
Anyone have any clue - if the judge in the SEC case rules against Elon - as to whether any punitive action would be announced at the same time, or whether they would be handed down in a separate decision at a later date?
Not that I expect him to lose this, of course.
Not that I expect him to lose this, of course.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Well this clearly will not be resolved today. Again carsonight took screenshots on Jan 2nd showing an est'd prod at 4,008 cars/wk, and later that day at 4,608 cars/wk. He has been a reliable source of information, and has training in the legal field. I have no reason to doubt his evidence, and further I saw the same 'tweaks' at the end of 2018Q3.
But this is legal / retortical argument. Again, there is no MATH that makes any model prediction jump by 7,800 units with a late addition of 3,500 VINs.
This does not pass the B.S. test. The rest looks like hand waving because we 'like' somebody or some organization.
I do not care. I want to see the math. Everything else is flufferbot fodder.
Cheers!
Chickenlittle
Banned
My daughter claims it’s the female anatomy
Gulfstream, probably service.
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