That's why everyone here's pissed when $TSLA is red?
One of my worst jokes on this sub
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
One of my worst jokes on this sub
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Not a lawyer, but I believe if this were a trial and he was found guilty there would be a separate sentencing phase. However, this is NOT a trial so it would not surprise me if and action the judge decides is prudent it would come at the same time as her ruling. Just a guess on my part though.
Dan
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
There's relatively straightforward explanations to most of these questions:
- The Q4 VIN registrations by Tesla were very uneven: most of them happened early on in the quarter. If Bloomberg's averaging method gives fresh bursts of registrations higher weight than old ones it's easy to see such a 7.8k jump on a late 3.5k burst. Yes, there is such math.
- @tsunamiofhurt commented that he noticed the late update to 61k in the Bloomberg tracker on the afternoon of the 30th of December.
- @tsunamiofhurt tweeted on the 31st documenting that the Bloomberg tracker is predicting 61k: "Bloomberg has cumulative production at ~61k". Two days before the Tesla report.
- I have no idea what happened to Carsonight's screenshots - time zones sometimes showed previous week's data on the tracker. Or he had the previous value cached. In any case @tsunamiofhurt's tweet on December 31 is incontrovertible evidence that the Bloomberg tracker already changed by then.
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Then your daughter doesn't know the essentials of ....
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cars,
You Are Now Aware That the Dodge Logo is the Female Reproductive System : pics
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, on Jan 1st, 2019 Model 3 VINs wrote:
So these cars were not produced in 2018Q4, and BB Tracker is further in error. It's a comedy of compounding errors now.
Make enough, and it'll average out, right? But never, ever show error bars for estimates, 'cause that might scare away some click revenue.
Humorous stuff, but I'm done for today. Too close to Market Hours to continue now.
Cheers!
According to the German BAFA:
https://www.bafa.de/SharedDocs/Down...wischenbilanz.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=41
there are about 2500 applications for subsidies for Model 3 so far. So that's the minimum number of delivered Model 3 in Germany until April 1st.
About 80% AWD / 20% Performance.
https://www.bafa.de/SharedDocs/Down...wischenbilanz.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=41
there are about 2500 applications for subsidies for Model 3 so far. So that's the minimum number of delivered Model 3 in Germany until April 1st.
About 80% AWD / 20% Performance.
I don't know about other northern places, but the ground is still frozen here. Also, the latitude looks to be pretty widely varying on these.
As to whether there's some seasonal pattern in the data... it doesn't look like there is.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I independently came to a 61k production estimate in Q4 as well, based on VIN registrations alone.
I can agree with the view that Bloomberg might have gotten lucky in Q4 - but that's a far cry from your accusation of them changing their estimate "retroactively", which they didn't.
I also agree with the criticism that the Bloomberg tracker was confusing. They tweaked the tracker for Q1: actual estimate is visible, and it's more transparent.
In any case:
- Your claim that math "cannot support" a 7.8k jump on 3.5k burst is false: that's only true of lagging averages - any sort of overeager predictive averaging function would overreact to a 3.5k registration.
- Bloomberg's tracker being off for much of Q4 was simply a function of Tesla registering almost all VINs in October already.
- The Carsonight screenshots are discredited by the contemporary snapshot @tsunamiofhurt gave on December 31.
- You provided no valid evidence whatsoever for me to distrust Bloomberg's tracker and Tom Randall's honesty.
Today Bloomberg's Q1 estimate is 79k, mine is 80k.
Tomorrow we might learn how much of a fool VINology made of both of us.
Let me put it this way: I will feel better when and if I can order a sample.
SW2Fiddler
We Are Cognitive Dissidents
I’m just not gonna believe half of what I see today, and none of what I hear.
Notary Advice.
Notary Advice.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You can get a sample today, just cost you $218M cash.
But Maxwell did already make their results available to the scientific community, and Tesla did not make their offer based on a whim or a rumor. JB knows full well what they're buying.
Cheers!
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
You can get a sample today, just cost you $218M cash.
But Maxwell did already make their results available to the scientific community, and Tesla did not make their offer based on a whim or a rumor. JB knows full well what they're buying.
Cheers!
I think the point is that there's a big difference between lab samples and products in mass production.
That said, I too am very excited about Maxwell's tech. Mainly for its cost-reduction potential. Major cost reductions from eliminating vacuum ovens in favour of hot rolling presses will happen almost assuredly. How well the various property improvements will materialize in a mass production environment is more up in the air (but again, I'm optimistic).
Cramer and someone else on CNBC said they recently read "the complaint" and said it reads as if Elon needs to go or be told if it happens again he goes. They suggested he needs to throw himself at the mercy of the judge.
Where is this complaint to be able to read?
If the above is true, perhaps this cat is dead and the knife needs to drop...
Where is this complaint to be able to read?
If the above is true, perhaps this cat is dead and the knife needs to drop...
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tesla: "the auto purchase the keeps getting better with age!"
From my read of the process, it is simpler than wet electrode, so scale up of a proven product should not be overly fraught with danger. The Maxwell blurb (which now eludes me) said they had been working for quite some time with someone on the cell, if that was/ is Tesla, then they have already evaluated the product.
(also optimistic)
RobStark
Well-Known Member
At the end of 2016 there were 1575 petrol stations in Norway.
Is there any new numbers that suggest BEVs are having an effect?
I know many petrol stations have chargers but.....
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Dunno. I'd think the most valid metric to measure the effect is the total volume of sales for transport fuels. Don't know about those either. But I do know that Statoil is divesting from some oil field leases and building offshore wind turbines. Doggerland!
Indeed - the loss of petrol stations will be the death knell for ICEs in Norway - particularly in remote areas.
You can own and use an EV without DC chargers. You can't do the same with an ICE without gas stations. If your town's gas station shuts down, and you have to drive 30km each way to the nearest gas station to fill up each time... you're going to ditch your ICE vehicle fast.
Many petrol stations are already struggling (and were even before EVs came into the picture). They can't afford to lose 10% of their business, let alone half.
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HG Wells
Martian Embassy
If Trump closes the border with Mexico this week (as Mulvaney has confirmed) how bad will it affect the stock price ?
Mulvaney: It would take 'something dramatic' for Trump not to close border
IE how much % wise of model 3 is made in Mexico ?
Mulvaney: It would take 'something dramatic' for Trump not to close border
IE how much % wise of model 3 is made in Mexico ?
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