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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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My post is more like a warning to those thinking of adding more on margin right now, playing with options, or over leveraging themselves.

The stock is clearly still firmly in the hands of hedgies and MM's. The breakout last week and outperformance of it's beta was just a false breakout.


Yeah......I don't really care lol. In fact, I think the thought that TSLA is only outperforming the overall market by 13% YoY shows just how corrupt the whole thing is. It's not like TSLA didn't increase their earnings 657% YoY......oh wait they did.

You can't even use the argument of TSLA being a super high P/E that was due for a correction. The P/E multiple had already compressed dramatically before the market decided to even sell off.
Why don't you just do what the hedgies do?
 
Why don't you just do what the hedgies do?
Because I don't really believe in playing that game? I'm fortunate enough to have enough shares for my goals at this point. I use margin, but in a very safe.

Again, my post(s) were more about caution for those that are more heavily leveraging themselves to try and obtain more shares. The trading action today and yesterday tell me hedgies and MM's are not done trying to drop TSLA and I'm not even confident the low from last week was the low.
 
I also started and scaled a company, and we were fully remote. What we did was just sit on an open Google Hangout call for the normal 8 hour work day. Everyone just stayed muted unless they had something to say, and so it was very much just like working in an office with people. It worked very well.
You were mfging a complicated item and trying to save the world, right? Or were you writing a book about accounting?

Let’s get real here. Sometimes a job can be done remotely, sometimes it can’t. Some people can be more productive unsupervised at home, some can’t.

If you want to work at Tesla, your butt is required to show up personally and face to face interaction with your colleagues, including those doing the grunt work. You can’t work that way, or it goes against your personal sensibilities, feel free to apply at Rivian, Lucid, Nikola, GM, Ford etc…. The options are vast.
 
The whole Nasdaq is tied to the 30 day MA. If the bears can get it to hold until next week (which will likely to be more volatile), they can likely use it work the market back down to the 20 day at ~11,700 (likely 11,600) on the bet that CPI is still too hot next Friday... which would allow a re-test of market lows. Vix got flatly rejected at 27 again, so right now, it seems the market isn't ready to re-test lows or even 20 MA... but the more 12k support is tested, the weaker it gets.

Now the bullish side also ties to the same 30d. A break and hold of the 30 day MA, sets the sights right on the 50 day MA that'll be in the ~12,700 range next week for the CPI that if it comes in below expectation should allow an immediate test next Friday with a larger goal of 13,200 in the following weeks. I certainly fall more on this side, but I like to know the dynamics of each direction.

Tesla will be along for the ride either way barring any significant news. A re-test of lows will have 600 in the sites with 580 being a target. Highs will be looking at 950 as a target.

And here is the second puncture of 12k this week. The reaction compared to yesterday's puncture will likely say a lot on how much or how little support there is.
 
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I agree with Elon regarding work from home, knowing what I’ve witnessed people doing with it, but can already see critics loading such a hard stance in the chamber and readying it to take further shots at Tesla for the S and G components of ESG scores.

Competitors will probably even amp up their flexibility to attract talent and hammer home their S and G superiority, though I think their innovative and productive edge will suffer as a result
 
Exactly! It does no one any good to have engineers sitting at home while everyone else is hands on at the factory. How can a closures engineer (as an example) be helpful if he/she doesn’t have his/her butt down in GA seeing firsthand issues? Answer: He/she cant.

Those panel gaps don’t get solved by running a computer simulation in a home office. Optimus doesn’t become the next best thing since Flufferbot until somebody actually puts it on the production line and sees firsthand it would be better off sweeping the floors with a toothpick.

People thinking ‘this’ is Elon being heavy-handed? 🤣😆😂 Big boy pants required when trying to save the world from itself.
The problem is being an absolutist about it. Are all the engineers supposed to get up and move every time a factory opens. Ok GigaTexas is open now. Everyone in California you are needed in GigaTexas to see that everything is running smoothly. Time to move. Oh we are opening a new factory in Ohio. Everyone move. Having core hours is key. I worked with teammates in Argentina. We always had screens running where we could see each other and have spontaneous conversations. Sometimes when making key design decisions some people would travel. When you have flexibility with employees they have flexibility with you. Oh I am on vacation and something comes up. Boom I get online and fix it. Believe I only work when in the office well then I wont even bring my laptop with me on vacation. Give people the power to be adults.
 
Here's another version of the e-mail, apparently to all staff.

"Everyone at Tesla is required to spend a minimum of 40 hours in the office per week," Musk said in the email.

"If you don't show up, we will assume you have resigned."
"There are of course companies that don't require this, but when was the last time they shipped a great new product? It's been a while," Musk said in the email.

"Tesla has and will create and actually manufacture the most exciting and meaningful products of any company on Earth. This will not happen by phoning it in."


Again, I assume that almost everyone is already on-site and has been since the early days of covid.

This could repel some and attract others. A lot of self-sorting is going on in this economy.
 
Do you know why?

Reddit moderators are mini-Napoleons, and the site admins give them complete control as to how their Subreddits are moderated. There are no hard and fast rules about who you can or cannot ban. So if you want to create a Subreddit and immediately ban anyone who speaks positively about Tesla, you're allowed to.

I was permanently banned from /r/solar because I was only commenting on threads that asked about Tesla. And then after my ban they retroactively added a "No crusading" rule with this language: "If you are lying in wait for posts or comments mentioning a specific company, you are likely the problem."
 
You don't see Tesla credited within that blog post because it's from Sunrun, the top US solar installer whose business model is diametrically opposed to Elon's vision for decentralized energy.

Sunrun is a pure sales & marketing firm masquerading as a solar installer. They are literally 80% of the reason residential solar hasn't taken off in the US.

I'll leave it at that. I can't get my rage levels too high this early in the day.
The point which you conveniently ignore is that all kinds of players are trying to join grid services. If Sunrun bothers to try to position that way the topic has become mainstream. Nobody sane would think of them in the same league as, say, ABB or GE. My point is that the topic has reached critical mass driven towards that in large part by the proven success of Tesla Autobidder with Hornsdale and subsequent distributed individual housing units.

Let your rage subside a bit and think in context.
 
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The point which you conveniently ignore is that all kinds of players are trying to join grid services. If Sunrun bothers to try to position that way the topic has become mainstream. Nobody sane would think of them in the same league as, say, ABB or GE. My point is that the topic has reached critical mass driven towards that in large part by the proven success of Tesla Autobidder with Hornsdale and subsequent distributed individual housing units.

Let your rage subside a bit and think in context.
I'm saying that these players lack the vision, tenacity, or even desire to make the changes you're talking about. Tesla will end up having to make very similar pivots in power as they made in EVs when the herd is hesitant to follow.

Remember, GE is doing amazing things in wind and renewables, but they are the quintessential centralized energy provider. There's gonna be massive internal resistance to change, even if the renewables division is exciting and growing rapidly.

The time for talk is over, and I'm still seeing mostly talk out of most players other than Elon. Plenty of low hanging fruit out there.....what's the holdup?
 
This delivery date update, which shifts everything out by one month, comes about one month after the last delivery date update (May 3rd). So if nothing else, it appears that the US backlog is no longer growing, but nor has it shrunk either. Caveat being that this data is very murky, but is nevertheless pretty much the only visibility we have into Tesla's order book (other than time elapsed from ordering to delivery for customers).


I am certain that Tesla (and therefore Elon) have tremendously granular visibility into their order flow, and can likely know whether there have been any repercussions with regard to orders due to Elon's increased political visibility.
 
This delivery date update, which shifts everything out by one month, comes about one month after the last delivery date update (May 3rd). So if nothing else, it appears that the US backlog is no longer growing, but nor has it shrunk either. Caveat being that this data is very murky, but is nevertheless pretty much the only visibility we have into Tesla's order book (other than time elapsed from ordering to delivery for customers).


I am certain that Tesla (and therefore Elon) have tremendously granular visibility into their order flow, and can likely know whether there have been any repercussions with regard to orders due to Elon's increased political visibility.
Just a thought... it could still be growing, but only at an equal rate to the expectation of the Austin ramp.
 
Just a thought... it could still be growing, but only at an equal rate to the expectation of the Austin ramp.
I was just about to comment the same thing.

Austin the big mystery here because we don't know the production rate right now. Though in the past 2-3 drone videos on Austin, there has been a very material increase in production with the drone flyers noting that there are carriers taking away cars consistently every day. You can also see this if you pay attention to the cars that are lined up from one day to the next.
 
Just a thought... it could still be growing, but only at an equal rate to the expectation of the Austin ramp.

It's likely that the Austin ramp was already factored into delivery expectations a month ago, isn't it? Your point is well taken though - changes to Tesla's internal production expectations (to which we aren't privy) could mean that the backlog is growing or shrinking in terms of ordered vehicles, if not time.