Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bkp_duke]

Let's not forget Elon has said much worse about him just because he didn't mention Tesla. Elon chose to go the route of personal attacks.

Only if calling out a clear bias is a "personal attack". Don't obfuscate that part.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Yep, for those of us who have been around for a while this is nothing new for Tesla/Elon. He has done this in the past during some critical times.

My bet is they still will have more employees at the end of the year than the start of the year.

Every company does that. During downturns, companies need to cut expenses to survive. It only makes sense to cut your poorest, least productive individuals. Not like the are going to cut their best and brightest.

 

[Electroman]

Comparing $10/MWh solar to the equivalent gasoline price is a good way to get a sense of how revolutionary that is for transportation once that price starts to be achievable in less sunny locations than the Middle East and North Africe.

Saudi Arabia utility-scale solar price:

$10.4/MWh (and dropping)​

Approximate panel-to wheels efficiency for local solar grids:

80%​

Assume localized power production and thus relatively cheap transmission costs from solar farm to load (in this case, the charging cable). Normally electricity transmission costs $30/MWh, but since it’s a new design using solar, let’s estimate half the cost off for $15/MWh. Note that even here, the transmission costs are more than the generation costs, which suggests that rooftop or backyard solar would be even cheaper than this model.

Cost per MWh of generation and transmission:

$10.4 + $15 = $25.4/MWh​

Cost per MWh of useful propulsion work done by EV:

$25.4/MWh / 80% = $32/MWh​

A gallon of gasoline is worth 33.7 kWh of energy and it's used at around 30% efficiency in ICEV propulsion. So $32/MWh solar cost is equivalent to gasoline priced at:

$32 = Cost of gas for 1 MWh of work​

​

= Gallons required * Price per gallon​

​

= 1 MWh * 1000 kWh/MWh * 1 gallon/33.7 kWh / 30% efficiency * Price per gallon​

​

$32 = 99 gallons * Price per gallon​

​

$32/99 gallons = Price per gallon​

​

$0.32 = Price per gallon​

​

Wow!​

​

If this math is run again with aspirational 5x solar power cost improvement between now and 2035 to get all-in energy cost of $5/MWh, the equivalent price per gallon of gasoline would be $0.063/gallon!

This is significantly cheaper than gas anywhere in the world, not even Libya at $0.12/gallon, Venezuela $0.11/gallon, nor Iran at $0.19/gallon. (I learned that Saudi Arabia actually in in 20th place for gasoline price.)

To predict this just requires willingness to extrapolate the solar cost curve trends of 10-15% per year saved for just 12 more years or so. The cost curve has been steady for about 68 years since 1954 and there is no clear reason to expect the trend not to continue for the foreseeable future. EVs will be cheaper up front and cheaper to operate literally everywhere on the planet, even countries with more oil & gas than they know what to do with.

There are real solar contracts being signed right now in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, for $10.4-19/MWh. (link link). When materials and logistics shortages calm down, prices will continue dropping.

Here is another way to calculate the equivalency of Solar cost to Gasoline cost, and voila I arrived at the same number as you did: 32c per gallon !!

We can play with the parameters on the top of the chart, like miles/ KWh for an EV, or the miles/gallon of gas or price of gas.

 

[thx1139]

Another thanks Elon day

 

[thx1139]

"Lots of luck on his trip to the moon." - Biden

Elon doesn't forget. Remember the stuff he's tweeted back to Russia's Space group in the past after thoroughly embarrassing them in rocketry? I can't wait to see what he does here.

And thats the problem Elon is taking action by being petty.

 

[JRP3]

Only if calling out a clear bias is a "personal attack". Don't obfuscate that part.

"a damp sock puppet in human form". Yeah, don't obfuscate.

 

[bkp_duke]

And thats the problem Elon is taking action by being petty.

Politicians don't understand anything else. They are petty by nature. Sometimes, you just have to get into the mud to defend yourself (and yes, Elon does believe that he and Tesla are being attacked).

 

[bkp_duke]

"a damp sock puppet in human form". Yeah, don't obfuscate.

Again, Elon didn't START it, but he won't let it slide after it has started.

 

[JRP3]

Again, Elon didn't START it, but he won't let it slide after it has started.

He did in fact START the personal attack, stop trying to pretend otherwise. Not mentioning Tesla is not a personal attack.

 

[thx1139]

LOL this is so wrong. here's an example of CFRA now pushing out what is now confirmed as incorrect information, and basing a price target on it?!?!?! WTF.

This is a consequence of the 24-hour news cycle that we live in. People have to react immediately without getting all the facts.

1. 10% of salaried workers, not 10% of all.
2. Tesla does NOT have a hiring freeze. At all. He explicitly says hiring of manufacturing workers will continue.
3. I doubt Tesla wants to get rid of Shanghai people. The Chinese are clearly showing that they are highly productive.
4. The impact of Shanghai on annual numbers is miniscule. Well within the margin of error of the Berlin and Austin production ramp speed, which actually looks like it may be ahead of many expectations.

This will all blow over by next week once people recognize that this info is wrong.

Yeah most likely US workers based in California. Then slowly rehire same roles in Texas. 4. Are you saying Berlin and Austin ramp looks ahead of expectations. Sorry dont see it. Austin ramp looks rather slow. Of course if carriers picking up cars at night I could be wrong, but sure looks like carriers dont pick up often. I assume most sales are still going to employees.

 

[Ogre]

Also very convenient that this stricter policies happen after Tesla's head of AI just returned from a sabbatical.

Sabbatical is by definition not "Working". Karpathy's sabbatical would not be affected here at all.

Don't get how the one relates to the other.

 

[thx1139]

Politicians don't understand anything else. They are petty by nature. Sometimes, you just have to get into the mud to defend yourself (and yes, Elon does believe that he and Tesla are being attacked).

Elon wants his ego stroked. Trump did that and Elon and Tesla got nothing. Biden hasnt and really the only car manufacturer that has benefited during Biden administration is Tesla. The raising of CAFE standards which Tesla lobbied for did what double the amount of regulatory credits got in Q1. Biden put money right in Tesla pocket, but he showed up at Ford and GM factories for photo opps to calm purple state auto workers nerves about EV transition.

 

[Ogre]

He did in fact START the personal attack, stop trying to pretend otherwise. Not mentioning Tesla is not a personal attack.

Imagine for a moment you went to the Olympics and won the gold medal. You get back to the US and POTUS doesn't even mention your accomplishment, but instead crows about how the guy who won the Silver is "A Number 1" and makes America Proud. Silver Bob is the best runner of the generation!

Genius.

 

[henchman24]

A flat out vix rejection at 26 and Nasdaq trying to reclaim 30 day MA. Those are bullish signs and Tesla has even recovered a small amount.

 

[bkp_duke]

Elon wants his ego stroked. Trump did that and Elon and Tesla got nothing. Biden hasnt and really the only car manufacturer that has benefited during Biden administration is Tesla. The raising of CAFE standards which Tesla lobbied for did what double the amount of regulatory credits got in Q1. Biden put money right in Tesla pocket, but he showed up at Ford and GM factories for photo opps to calm purple state auto workers nerves about EV transition.

Right . . . Trump just didn't get in the WAY of Elon. There's a difference. He let Tesla do Tesla, and nothing more.

Biden has STOKED the unions against Tesla, refused to mention Tesla until directly confronted on it, and FLAT OUT LIED about the leader of the EV industry ("Mary, you led.").

EV awareness in general has been increasing, I'm not giving Biden "points" for that one. That trend has been ongoing since the Obama administration, Biden doesn't get points for "the trend".

 

[elasalle]

cnbc has the email now

Here's the email Elon Musk sent all Tesla employees about 10% head count reduction

Tesla is cutting 10% of its salaried employees CEO Elon Musk wrote in an email to all employees there on Friday.

www.cnbc.com

 

[Queeg500]

When reacting to Elon’s behaviour, there are only three sane choices.

 

[bkp_duke]

cnbc has the email now

Here's the email Elon Musk sent all Tesla employees about 10% head count reduction

Tesla is cutting 10% of its salaried employees CEO Elon Musk wrote in an email to all employees there on Friday.

www.cnbc.com

Typical CNBS headline, they can't put in the headline "salaried". They have to let the implication run that Tesla is cutting 10% of the workforce overall.

 

[Curt Renz]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1532750097024487426

 

[JRP3]

Imagine for a moment you went to the Olympics and won the gold medal. You get back to the US and POTUS doesn't even mention your accomplishment, but instead crows about how the guy who won the Silver is "A Number 1" and makes America Proud. Silver Bob is the best runner of the generation!

Genius.

I never suggested there wasn't a legitimate gripe, just that being ignored is not the same as a direct personal attack. Elon's childish response is just another all too increasingly frequent example of poor choices in communication.