Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

Ya.
Just a light bulp moment while trying to figure out why FSD hardware is in cars that didn't even order them. Eventually FSD will be offered as a monthly subscription. Even those who didn't order FSD will find it convenient to order it for a few months on roadtrips etc.

The hardware of which you speak is the four side cameras (which also provide blind spot detection). Radar and computer are needed for FCW, AEB, and TACC. Rear camera is a vehicle requirement. Sentry mode also relies on the sensor suite so removing them really hurts the feature set for very little cost savings. Further, by including the HW, Tesla can upgrade trade ins and/ or get orders for upgrade after the initial sale (versus need to modify the car).

It will be awesome to someday see headlines about Tesla enabling FSD for car fleeing natural disasters to increase safety and rate of evacuation.

 

[ZachF]

First pictures of HW 3.0!!!!!!!

Wow. Competitors are finished. Stock price rocket imminent!

 

[printf42]

First pictures of HW 3.0!!!!!!!

Wow. Competitors are finished. Stock price rocket imminent!

Actually I am a bit worried about what Elon’s April fools joke would be.
I really hope the Twitter name change was it, but probably something bigger would come after market close.

 

[smorgasbord]

"... As a result of the start of Model 3 expansion into Europe and China, deliveries will be lower than production by about 10,000 units due to vehicle transit times to these markets."

So if Bloomberg is in the right ballpark (questionable, I know) with their 79K Model 3 production prediction, does that mean 69K deliveries (which is actually more than Q4 2018)? Does anyone believe that? Sure is lots higher than Chowdry and Jonas (and I do think they're wrong, but not sure even 65K deliveries happened).

Any guesses as to how many SR/SR+ units delivered (in the US) during Q1? If under 10K, then those may not have that much of a detrimental an effect on overall profitability (SR/SR+ have much lower margins, but LR/Perf may now have higher margins as Tesla is improving their efficiency). If more like 20K (most of Mar production), then I think it would have an effect.

 

[Words of HABIT]

General rule for concrete is that the load, for which the foundation has been designed, should not be applied until 28 days of curing. In the case of GF3, I don't think there is any danger of having to wait for curing time. I.e., it will be a lot longer than that before it is time to install machinery. JMO.

Hock1, if you think they are waiting 28 days for concrete to cure, you have not been paying attention. High
Early concrete allows for 80% strength within two days. This is quite standard to expedite construction in North America, and rest assured China waits for no-one.
28-day-myth
High Early Concrete Cures Quickly, Reducing Wait Time, Increasing Turnaround

 

[KarenRei]

Hock1, if you think they are waiting 28 days for concrete to cure, you have not been paying attention. High early concrete allows fo 80% strength within two days. This is quite standard to expedite construction in North America, and rest assured China waits for no-one.
28-day-myth
High Early Concrete Cures Quickly, Reducing Wait Time, Increasing Turnaround

Indeed, concrete properties can vary greatly; it all depends on what your needs are (price, schedule, strength, etc). For my home I'm going with just the opposite, a pozzolonic concrete that takes many months to reach 80% of its strength. Upside is that it's ridiculously durable (more similar to Roman concrete) and has a much lower CO2 footprint, so if you're not in a rush...

(Definitely recommend pozzolanic concrete to anyone looking at any concrete job where the schedule isn't rushed. You can even use coal fly ash as your pozzolan, e.g. sequestering a waste product and putting it to good use).

 

[Johnny Ma]

Actually I am a bit worried about what Elon’s April fools joke would be.
I really hope the Twitter name change was it, but probably something bigger would come after market close.

 

[elasalle]

Just release the delivery numbers, one group is surely gonna be fooled ... waiting ...

 

[ZachF]

SP is now bumping up against the upper band of the falling wedge pattern it has been stuck in the last 4+ months.

 

[jhm]

Where my gorillas at?
All day long can't stop thinking about
RIP Harambe

 

[EVNow]

In the Q4 letter:

"While the number of Model 3 vehicles produced should increase sequentially in Q1, deliveries in North America during Q1 will be lower than the prior quarter as we start delivering cars in Europe and China for the first time. As a result of the start of Model 3 expansion into Europe and China, deliveries will be lower than production by about 10,000 units due to vehicle transit times to these markets."

Only model 3 though.

Production of Model 3 in Q3 : 53,239​

Production of Model 3 in Q4 : 61,394 (15% more or 8,155 more)

Sequentially more in Q1 = 70,603 (15% more) or 69500 (8k more) ~ 70k

Delivery 10k less than production = 60k !

So, that is the guidance for Model 3 in Q1.

ps : Reading a bit on this, sounds like in finance parlance, "increase sequentially" just means increase compared to last quarter. Doesn't say anything about how much the increase will be. So, even if the increase is by 0.1%, it would be inline with the guidance.

 

[Nocturnal]

Elon should offer FSD as a service

For vehicles that ship with HW3 maybe but the cost is too great to give new hardware to a guy that might only keep FSD for 2 weeks.

So if Bloomberg is in the right ballpark (questionable, I know) with their 79K Model 3 production prediction, does that mean 69K deliveries (which is actually more than Q4 2018)? Does anyone believe that? Sure is lots higher than Chowdry and Jonas (and I do think they're wrong, but not sure even 65K deliveries happened).

Any guesses as to how many SR/SR+ units delivered (in the US) during Q1? If under 10K, then those may not have that much of a detrimental an effect on overall profitability (SR/SR+ have much lower margins, but LR/Perf may now have higher margins as Tesla is improving their efficiency). If more like 20K (most of Mar production), then I think it would have an effect.

Definitely the number of SRs is low. Some people are claiming that it's a bait and switch. Aside from that tinfoil hat business Tesla definitely wants to sell the SR+ considering how much value you get for that 2k difference.

 

[jbcarioca]

Indeed, concrete properties can vary greatly; it all depends on what your needs are (price, schedule, strength, etc). For my home I'm going with just the opposite, a pozzolonic concrete that takes many months to reach 80% of its strength. Upside is that it's ridiculously durable (more similar to Roman concrete) and has a much lower CO2 footprint, so if you're not in a rush...

(Definitely recommend pozzolanic concrete to anyone looking at any concrete job where the schedule isn't rushed. You can even use coal fly ash as your pozzolan, e.g. sequestering a waste product and putting it to good use).

For those who do not know pozzolonic:
The use of pozzolans in concrete

My associates and I have used pozzolonic concrete for kitchen countertops and high end garages for houses. A key advantage is that they are generally less porous than other concretes. Because of their increased strength and resilience some types are often used industrially, but the key disadvantage is the curing time. I'm told the frequent difficulty is the lack of consistency in large scale batches, as mentioned in the link. Long ago such concrete was often deployed to handle heavy machinery loads, especially when industrial loads took place above ground floors.

Clearly the materials chosen for GF 3 have been engineered for very fast curing as well as effectiveness. My quantity surveyor friend told me that almost endless permutation are made today, and, as logically expected, the more demanding the specification the higher the initial cost. Obviously much about concrete has probably been known for millennia. I once worked in a ~3,000 year old building in Yemen, so I suspect high durability has been long perfected.

 

[KarenRei]

For those who do not know pozzolonic:
The use of pozzolans in concrete

My associates and I have used pozzolonic concrete for kitchen countertops and high end garages for houses. A key advantage is that they are generally less porous than other concretes. Because of their increased strength and resilience some types are often used industrially, but the key disadvantage is the curing time. I'm told the frequent difficulty is the lack of consistency in large scale batches, as mentioned in the link. Long ago such concrete was often deployed to handle heavy machinery loads, especially when industrial loads took place above ground floors.

Clearly the materials chosen for GF 3 have been engineered for very fast curing as well as effectiveness. My quantity surveyor friend told me that almost endless permutation are made today, and, as logically expected, the more demanding the specification the higher the initial cost. Obviously much about concrete has probably been known for millennia. I once worked in a ~3,000 year old building in Yemen, so I suspect high durability has been long perfected.

Modern concrete is much less durable (with respect to time) than ancient concrete (although much stronger... including actually having meaningful tensile strength, vs. ancient unreinforced concrete which had basically none). Non-pozzolanic mixes are more chemically active and permeable, while the rebar inside is basically a timebomb; as the cement absorbs CO2 from the air (basically turning back to limestone), its pH drops; when the pH at the rebar drops too much, the steel no longer maintains a passivation layer, quickly rusts, expands in size dramatically, and the concrete spalls out. For a typical concrete structure, that may be 50-150 years or so. Only things like dams, where the concrete is so thick that CO2 will never realistically penetrate all the way through, can last for thousands of years.

In my house I'm using a mix of basalt fibre rebar and stainless rebar (wanted to go all basalt but they had to use stainless in areas of shear stress). Should easily last for many hundreds if not thousands of years. No home will ever have a lower environmental footprint than one that doesn't have to be rebuilt once every 50-100 years...

But yeah, Tesla has bigger fish to fry with a project like GF3. The faster they're operational, the more they'll help make the world a cleaner place.

 

[anthonyj]

Sold 10 shares as a sacrifice. Get ready for $300

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm sitting on this 4/5 §297,5 call, which is over 200% up at the moment and can't decide what to do with it.

My optimistic side tells me that the delivery report is going to be good, my pessimist half is warning that even good figures will be spun by the MSM.

A wildcard is the court hearing on Thursday - there's a slight chance the judge throws the case out, the SP would rocket.

Surely whatever I do it will be wrong...

 

[KarenRei]

I'm sitting on this 4/5 §297,5 call, which is over 200% up at the moment and can't decide what to do with it.

My optimistic side tells me that the delivery report is going to be good, my pessimist half is warning that even good figures will be spun by the MSM.

A wildcard is the court hearing on Thursday - there's a slight chance the judge throws the case out, the SP would rocket.

Surely whatever I do it will be wrong...

I normally say "split the difference". But in this case, when you only have one...

You could convert it to a spread. Sell a 4/5 call worth half its value. That'd be basically splitting the difference.

 

[EVMeister]

Where my gorillas at?
All day long can't stop thinking about
RIP Harambe

Are you sipping on some Bombay?

 

[Mobius484]

OT:No I’m sitting in my Tesla waiting to start my shift at work, listening to the latest from Emo G Records. Got it on repeat. Laughing my a$&$ off..

It’s called, RIP Harambe, can’t get it out of my head today for some reason....LOL

 

[Tslynk67]

I normally say "split the difference". But in this case, when you only have one...

You could convert it to a spread. Sell a 4/5 call worth half its value. That'd be basically splitting the difference.

Sell a call? Never don't that before...

I'm thinking to sell it and get something outside the money for Mid-May to take benefit of good delivery data, good Q1 results and end of SEC case.

But I can still see the SP popping in the coming days and my 200% could easily go much higher.

You can see I'm a total noob with this!