Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AudubonB]

Which of you is going to be uncharacteristically acknowledging that someone else is going to have the last word, instead of endlessly subjecting this thread’s many other participants to your non-stop snoozefest? This is getting annoyingly common. There is not a fine line but a very clear and useful one between an intelligent discussion and a “I’m right and you’re just being obtuse, pedantic or plain wrong.”

You know who you are. And so do we.

 

[ZachF]

They are ramping very very quickly with close to half million BEVs last year - about half of Tesla's output. I think its entirely possible they grow faster and pass Tesla in 2024 or 2025.

Lol, I needed a good joke, thanks for the belly laugh.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Un-popular opinion:

If anybody is going to build more BEVs than Tesla it is going to be the VW Group. They are ramping very very quickly with close to half million BEVs last year - about half of Tesla's output. I think its entirely possible they grow faster and pass Tesla in 2024 or 2025.

But I don't care if they do - I don't think that will be a negative for the TSLA stock I own. TSLA has great vertical integration, massive investment in AI, potentially a big advantage in the batteries with the 4680, the Energy business just starting to grow, and significantly better margins per vehicle.

If VW (or anybody else) starts innovate on any of those, or in other significant areas that will increase the amount of money they earn for their shareholders then I might start to take notice.

I’d love to have some of what you’re smoking

 

[cliff harris]

Un-popular opinion:

If anybody is going to build more BEVs than Tesla it is going to be the VW Group. They are ramping very very quickly with close to half million BEVs last year - about half of Tesla's output. I think its entirely possible they grow faster and pass Tesla in 2024 or 2025.

With whose batteries? Unless I see a Volkswagen owned factory exclusively churning out Volkswagen batteries for >500,000 of their BNEVs per year, I wont lose any sleep over not owning VW stock.
Diess has the right idea, but he is surrounded by tired, old grey men who just want to ride the ICE decline into their retirement packages.

 

[damonbrodie]

With whose batteries? Unless I see a Volkswagen owned factory exclusively churning out Volkswagen batteries for >500,000 of their BNEVs per year, I wont lose any sleep over not owning VW stock.
Diess has the right idea, but he is surrounded by tired, old grey men who just want to ride the ICE decline into their retirement packages.

Sure - Diess could be disingenuous about saying he can scale the BEV output to pass Tesla without having contracts in place for the batteries. If that turns out to be true then VW shareholders should revolt (or worse).

 

[ZachF]

With whose batteries? Unless I see a Volkswagen owned factory exclusively churning out Volkswagen batteries for >500,000 of their BNEVs per year, I wont lose any sleep over not owning VW stock.
Diess has the right idea, but he is surrounded by tired, old grey men who just want to ride the ICE decline into their retirement packages.

Volkswagen’s EV growth it saw in 2021 is petering out. Last year VW sold 451k EVs to Tesla’s 936k. For Q1 this year VW sold 98k to Tesla’s 310k, so from roughly double to roughly triple.

VW’s ICE business is also getting kicked in the nuts.

World’s Top 5 EV Automotive Groups Ranked By Sales: Q1 2022

In this post we will check the volume and share of the top OEMs in the overall plug-in market in Q1 2022.

insideevs.com

By 2025 Tesla will pass VW and Toyota in revenue and become the world’s largest automaker of all types.

 

[ZachF]

Sure - Diess could be disingenuous about saying he can scale the BEV output to pass Tesla without having contracts in place for the batteries. If that turns out to be true then VW shareholders should revolt (or worse).

VW would never be disingenuous!

VW has been promising to pass Tesla “in two years from now” for over a decade now.

 

[thx1139]

Really time for Tesla to start supporting V2G. I sit here with 3 Tesla's fully charged. They get charged overnight and lately been about 5 cents per kWh. Now we have a heat wave with close to 100 degree weather. Late afternoon rates have been over 20 cents per kWh and even couple days ago hit 120 per hWh for an hour. Thinking about all that cheap energy just sitting in our batteries with no real plan to drive anywhere over next few days.

 

[henchman24]

Still not seeing this 4d chess trap you're describing.

Starting a process that will take ~15 years before car companies need to actually change anything benefits Tesla how? 15 years from now many of these companies might be out of business. The ones left will exist in an environment where FSD is already solved and everyone left has been doing OTA for years- so "how well does your 2022 L2 system work in 2035" will be a moot question.

And there is no basis for recalls here, nor can there be - you need evidence something is unsafe to force a recall and there's no such evidence in what data is available until many many years in the future by which time nobody'll be on these systems anyway... so unsure why that keeps being brought up.






As above- this might well be the start of NHTSA wanting such a mandate. Likely even.

But such mandates happen on decade-plus long timeframes-- so nothing that'll have any real impact to... anything... not for many years, and likely irrelevant to everyone by the time it happens.

As I mentioned- 14 years from start to effective mandate for EDRs in new cars.

ABS they began the effort in 1995 and the mandate didn't kick in until 2012... 17 years to mandate ABS


You think anybody in 2035+ was otherwise selling a car that can't report data back to the car maker? How did they stay in business long enough to do that?

The ABS mandate took that long, but how many cars in the US didn’t have ABS after 2003? I can only think of a handful.

More of the point though is this forces the spotlight on how far behind they are and basically says they can’t do anything to Tesla here. A mandate may take a very long time and it will be fought.

 

[Usain]

But again you misunderstand how US regulation works.

They aren't required to "prove it's safe" to "allow" it- since by default it's already allowed under existing rules and law.


Instead- they are required to prove "it is NOT safe" before they can issue a recall.

I remember Elon complaining that in Europe, the opposite is true. In Europe, you first have to prove it is safe. It's "not allowed" by default.

 

[bkp_duke]

Really time for Tesla to start supporting V2G. I sit here with 3 Tesla's fully charged. They get charged overnight and lately been about 5 cents per kWh. Now we have a heat wave with close to 100 degree weather. Late afternoon rates have been over 20 cents per kWh and even couple days ago hit 120 per hWh for an hour. Thinking about all that cheap energy just sitting in our batteries with no real plan to drive anywhere over next few days.

Could not disagree more. V2G can really stress the AC/DC inverters, causing substantially more failures than we see now.

Nope, not a good idea, not unless we want to spend more money on each and every car produced to have beefer onboard inverters.


EDIT - VERY different if we just want to put a 240V plug into each car and limit the output, that could be doable with current hardware. But to really plug back into the grid and drive an entire house . . . nope. I wouldn't do it. Did you see the burnt contactors I posted yesterday or the day before? All kinds of components of the HV system would be put under additional stress.

And then there is the question of who's responsible if there is a fire while the car is parked in your garage? Car insurance, homeowners insurance? Both? Neither until an "investigation" is performed?

 

[mongo]

Really time for Tesla to start supporting V2G. I sit here with 3 Tesla's fully charged. They get charged overnight and lately been about 5 cents per kWh. Now we have a heat wave with close to 100 degree weather. Late afternoon rates have been over 20 cents per kWh and even couple days ago hit 120 per hWh for an hour. Thinking about all that cheap energy just sitting in our batteries with no real plan to drive anywhere over next few days.

Easy, turn off your house AC, go sit in your Tesla, turn on camp mode, and watch Netflix or read a book.

Edit: be sure to unplug charge cable first!

 

[Singuy]

But again you misunderstand how US regulation works.

They aren't required to "prove it's safe" to "allow" it- since by default it's already allowed under existing rules and law.


Instead- they are required to prove "it is NOT safe" before they can issue a recall.



if there's almost no data, and what little there is shows no problem, regulators will not touch it


This might start a 15 year process to eventually, some day, GET more data-- but that would come many years after those systems aren't even being installed on cars anymore.

But that's unlikely to have any significant benefit to Tesla here. This fight will be long over by then.

Heck NHTSA isn't even at the point of asking for additional data that does exist-- Like requiring each company to report total # of ADAS equipped vehicles they've sold.



At this point the only thing the data does is provide fodder for FUD stories that misrepresent or overplay how useful or relevant this data is in light of its vast limitations.

Nthsa finds themselves not able to establish what constitute as "not safe" unless they use Tesla's data. This is why if they were to dig deeper, they need to find out what is considered safe so they can deem a threshold below it to be "not safe". Not having a base line is this report's biggest problem.

 

[JRP3]

Easy, turn off your house AC, go sit in your Tesla, turn on camp mode, and watch Netflix or read a book.

This gave me an idea I'll explore in the engineering thread.

 

[Singuy]

Man, vix is about to hit support as FOMC comes out in 5 mins. Boom or bust here we go! (have to say it looks to be a set up to be a bust no matter what comes out)

 

[canoemore]

Man, vix is about to hit support as FOMC comes out in 5 mins. Boom or bust here we go! (have to say it looks to be a set up to be a bust no matter what comes out)

Then boom it is! jk

 

[henchman24]

Don’t like the 75bps rate increase… can’t trust fed guidance at all right now

 

[bkp_duke]

Don’t like the 75bps rate increase… can’t trust fed guidance at all right now

Market can't decide what it likes right now. Schizo. Up, down, sideways on the news.

 

[traxila]

They put a gun to the Feds head with the 75 point hike.

Bloomberg this AM was explicitly stating that the market would sell off if the 75 point hike was not enacted as the Fed would no longer be trusted by the market to contain anything. And they were not alone.

Seems the market expected it and likes it for today. At least so far lol.

It will probably weaken into the close...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fed interest rate hike: Key rate raised 0.75 points by central bank www.usatoday.com › story › money › 2022/06/15 › fed-interest-rates-hike

Federal Reserve increases key interest rate by 0.75% in biggest hike since 1994. What's that mean for economy and you?

The Fed hiked its key interest rate by the most since 1994 to fight inflation. It forecast more big increases that will impact rates for consumers.

www.usatoday.com