Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

Uber and Lyft drivers opt for Teslas amid rising petrol prices

As prices continue to climb, the advantages of electric cars becoming more stark

www.thenationalnews.com

"Ms Barnes opted to rent a standard Tesla Model 3 for a month through Hertz, which has a deal with Uber offering drivers a weekly rate of $344 that includes insurance, basic maintenance and unlimited miles.

Even after accounting for the cost to charge the car, Ms Barnes was paying roughly $450 a week for “the car of her dreams”, less than almost $600 required to fuel her Camry. In her first week, Ms Barnes’ earnings covered the cost of the rental for the month."

 

[Cosmacelf]

Tom's Guide on Starlink speeds worldwide with some cool nuggets:

"In Mexico, Starlink had the fastest satellite internet in North America during the first quarter of this year with a median download speed of 105.91 Mbps followed by Starlink in Canada and the U.S. However, in Puerto Rico, HughesNet took the top spot with download speeds of 20.54 Mbps."

How fast is Elon Musk’s Starlink — the results are in

Starlink is faster than ever but is it enough for rural internet users?

www.tomsguide.com

Edit: Mexico was at 7mbps back in 2020 (based on this website) https://fairinternetreport.com/research/internet-speed-by-country

The original Ookla article is interesting too: Here’s How Fast Starlink Has Gotten Over the Past Year | Ookla®

I like how these articles end saying “competition is coming”, just like with Tesla starting around 2014. Same thing‘s going to happen. Competition will arrive in 8 years to be competitive with Starlink speeds today while Starlink will be on their third or fourth generation satellite system with an order of magnitude better speeds. Not to mention worldwide coverage. Starlink is building out base stations and getting telecom approval in all the countries now, not “eventually”.

 

[AndrewZ]

Did you read it? Mobileye REM™ - Road Experience Management

They are only collecting map related data augmented by the CANbus data (this is very limited in nature like %throttle, %brake, steering angle, headlights on/off, turn signal on/off, etc).

Not camera information.

Advanced driver assistance system | Mobileye Fleet Solutions

advanced driver assistance system by Mobileye helps protect drivers and reduce collisions with an advanced collision avoidance system.

www.mobileye.com

Using computer vision technology, our system scans the road and roadside, and extracts only the relevant information, turning it into highly compressed semantic information.

It's not just CANbus data, they're collecting visual data about road markings, traffic signs, and are also sending CANbus data. How they take visual data from the cameras and convert it into 10kb per kilometer, I have no idea.

In terms of expanding the OEDR and recognizing more objects and especially unusual objects, which is what Tesla's AI training data is doing, Mobileye has been collecting visual data for over 25 years.

Mobileye’s Self-Driving Secret? 200PB of Data

Powerful computer vision tech and natural language models turn industry’s leading dataset into AV training gold mine.

www.intel.com

Large-scale data labeling is at the heart of building powerful computer vision engines needed for autonomous driving. Mobileye’s rich and relevant dataset is annotated both automatically and manually by a team of more than 2,500 specialized annotators. The compute engine relies on 500,000 peak CPU cores at the AWS cloud to crunch 50 million datasets monthly – the equivalent to 100 petabytes being processed every month related to 500,000 hours of driving.

I know you just recently showed up here to contribute your “contrarian voice” so here’s some help.

@Discoducky worked at Tesla on the Autopilot engineering team in 2014 and 2015 which was the Mobileye AP1 era. Lecturing him on how it works is a bad look, especially when you don’t understand the subject matter yourself.

Yes, Mobileye technically sends back some fleet data from consumer vehicles but it’s not AI training data which is what was being discussed. They’re using it to form a big map.

Discoducky is Googling stuff just like me, they are not an expert in autonomous vehicles and very few people in the world are right now.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Sandy Munro has a Model Y 4680 incoming for teardown! (~20:40 into the video)

OOOO, can't wait to see the details on this one!

And The Limiting Factor has a 4680 cell tear down video coming, along with chemical and physical analysis of it. Patreon supporters can get sneak peeks at both.

 

[Nocturnal]

Oh damn the general consensus is waaaay different from my own projections

Tesla has me so spoiled that I'm sitting here thinking how awful it would be to have an SP of 1300 in 2025. I do the same in my head though, not pricing in FSD or Optimus. It's comforting to know that even if Tesla is a huge failure in those areas that they can still double over a few years.

 

[wtlloyd]

re: Munro Live on YouTube, one wonders how they can be sure they will receive an Austin Y with 4680 and not 2170

Not yet noted here, later in the current video they also state they are heading to IDRA to view current GigaPress production (presumably the 9000) and hope to discover, among other things, who has presses on order (Sandy mentions (mispronounces?) Geeley has a known order for a press.

 

[Blue horseshoe]

re: Munro Live on YouTube, one wonders how they can be sure they will receive an Austin Y with 4680 and not 2170

Not yet noted here, later in the current video they also state they are heading to IDRA to view current GigaPress production (presumably the 9000) and hope to discover, among other things, who has presses on order (Sandy mentions (mispronounces?) Geeley has a known order for a press.

Someone who recently received an austin made 4680 model Y sold it to Sandy for teardown

 

[hobbes]

Sandy Munro has a Model Y 4680 incoming for teardown! (~20:40 into the video)


OOOO, can't wait to see the details on this one!

Anyone want to buy a 4680 cell - only $800 !

Man, they expect 800-something cells in the pack, so they´ll make $640,000 if that works so they can buy another 10 Model Y with that, nice Ponzi scheme .

Sounds like video should drop Wednesday next week.

 

[hobbes]

re: Munro Live on YouTube, one wonders how they can be sure they will receive an Austin Y with 4680 and not 2170

Long range = 2170,
Standard range = 4680

or did I miss something?!

 

[unk45]

Hyundai and Kia have been selling EVs for 6+ years. ??

Maybe author needs to do a little more research? Didn't read the source, but... why bother chasing garbage.

Not garbage, please, but certainly first efforts.
Kia Soul EV began Korea deliveries in June 2014

https://www.currentautomotive.com/a-look-back-at-the-excellent-first-generation-kia-soul-ev/

Hyundai BlueON was introduced in September 2010. Although very few were made and delivered it still was the first. The first serious volumes were of the Kona in July 2016.

Vehicle History 2010 BLUE ON | Hyundai Experiences | Footer - Hyundai Worldwide

Hyundai Motor Company's vehicle history. Explore BLUE ON with stories and galleries of them.

www.hyundai.com

FWIW a Norwegian friend of mine bought a Soul EV in ~2015. He still uses it as a third car.
So, factually Hyundai/Kia have been building and delivering BEV's almost as long as has Tesla.
This isn't intended to be a strong endorsement of their products, but does explain why Elon has more respect for them than for many who toyed with BEV's, perhaps, but not seriously.
The Kia Soul EV really taught the Hyundai Group how to build, deliver and service EV's. That car deserves respect.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yep, should be over that now, and 100+/day at Austin is 700/w, add them together and should be at or near 2k.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1542162525847953408

Might want to up that rate........significantly.

I don't trust Electrek's sources so I'm not about to get all giddy about it. But 2k/week from Austin + 1200/week from Berlin (now that it's 6 days a week) is in the ballpark of 40k per quarter and we're not even in Q3 yet.

Given further increases to production rate throughout Q3, I think at least 50k from Austin/Berlin with a upside to 75K is definitely possible.

So still on track for a Q3 P/D print of 420k.

 

[Chenkers]

Fred out with an article that's mostly positive* for a change (*apart from a gripe about MYLR being 2170 not 4680):

One source said that Tesla is making as many as 5,000 vehicles available to deliver per week from Gigafactory Texas, but it’s not clear if that’s a sustainable rate. Another source said that Tesla is capable of producing at least 2,000 Model Ys per week at the plant since adding the Model Y Long Range to the mix.

If the sources are accurate this is a lot higher production rate than I've noticed in drone flyovers, although they have been increasing substantially. I'm seeing this picked up in my broker feed so hopefully it gets noticed.

Tesla ramps up Gigafactory Texas to thousands of units per week, adds new Model Y version

Edit: @StarFoxisDown! just beat me to it.

 

[Sofie]

Oh damn the general consensus is waaaay different from my own projections

Are those share prices predictions after some sort of split every year or something? Because I mean, 970$ for next year and 1,386$ by 2025 seems kind of low.

 

[FEERSUMENDJIN]

" .. it will outperform the model S I sell in every metric..." except comfort - the Y is more like the Mercedes of old, with a firm /stiff suspension. BUT there's a fix for that via Tesla Model Y Luxury Coilover Suspension Kit by Unplugged Performance

PS. Someone please get Tesla to install these at their centers as an option so it doesn't void the Tesla warranty. Unplugged Performance already has good connections w/ Tesla techs. Just make it better integrated, good for profits if done right

Both R Simmons and Tesla Bjorn have reported that the Berlin Model Ys have great new shocks.

 

[mongo]

Are those share prices predictions after some sort of split every year or something? Because I mean, 970$ for next year and 1,386$ by 2025 seems kind of low.

So much OpEx growth (at least 30% YoY)...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Are those share prices predictions after some sort of split every year or something? Because I mean, 970$ for next year and 1,386$ by 2025 seems kind of low.

It's because he has the P/E of TSLA at 38 which to me is laughable considering TSLA would have just increased earnings 100% and will increase earnings again over 50% (both number I think are way too low btw)

Sorry but you can't have P/E of a company be lower than it's actual earnings growth rate Let's just say, I very much disagree with those share price numbers. I also disagree with the dilution amounts per year. 2020 and 2021 were heavily influenced by Elon's compensation plan, dilution going forward will likely be 2% or 0% if Tesla does just a minor stock buy back

 

[SOULPEDL]

Shortzes swimming against the stream as of 10:03 ET (only TSLA and NVDA in the red)

View attachment 822614

Lol!

Good for the economy, some public relief from 401K shock. Gotta keep people spending and cash flowing - otherwise...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

So much OpEx growth (at least 30% YoY)...

Correct, which if I'm remembering correctly goes against Tesla's own guidance.

 

[Mengy]

Fred out with an article that's mostly positive* for a change (*apart from a gripe about MYLR being 2170 not 4680):

One source said that Tesla is making as many as 5,000 vehicles available to deliver per week from Gigafactory Texas, but it’s not clear if that’s a sustainable rate.

That sounds a tad too fast of an increase to me, from a realistic point of view. It would be extremely nice if true though!

 

[wtlloyd]

Long range = 2170,
Standard range = 4680

or did I miss something?!

I am aware of that, but things are in such a state of flux with the 4680 ramp I wouldn't bet my life they wouldn't push out software limited 2170s if their order queue somehow required it. Very low probability, granted, but my mother was from Missouri (the "Show Me" state).