Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[The Accountant]

Not bad.

I do suspect though that when Tesla’s profit exceeds ~$50b you’re going to start seeing buybacks and the number of shares will begin to decline.

Some companies have a "quiet buyback program" just to buy back shares when employee stock options are exercised.
This keeps outstanding shares flat. I think Tesla may consider something like this in the future.

 

[BrownOuttaSpec]

Good points and to reply to them

2. Totally get that and I am worried about Q2 knocking SP down as well, but Q3 should be massive (already looking forward to the Oct earnings call)

Aren't SP movements typically tied to future guidance? For example Netflix came out with good numbers last quarter 3.53 EPS vs 2.9 estimated but their stock dropped like a rock because they lost subscribers and had lower future guidance. Tesla will come out with whatever EPS but their guidance is going to be continued 50+% growth so as long as the EPS is close to the estimate it should kick the SP up......

Of course that would make sense if the market itself made sense and wasn't fully manipulated.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Turns out they didn’t even need a hit piece FUD anyways. They just yank the stock irregardless. Let’s see how much TSLA underperforms it’s beta yet again

 

[GOVA]

Can´t help but think these Ys in Berlin look redish under their white covers, especially comparing to the white tent in the background
(Also from Tobi Lindh´s latest vid)

View attachment 822604

Yes, those do look pinkish.

This might be from the optical/light reflecting characteristics of that lens/sensor. With this quality and magnification the white ballance is probably off.

Those are most likely 'normal' gray covers.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I assume Tesla is prioritizing Model Y throughput, but if they wanted to could ramp up S/X to take over the market, but that wouldn't be optimal for the vision of sustainable energy.

I found this chart and had to laugh as Tesla isn't on it and Genesis, Crysler and Kia are.

View attachment 822595

Tesla has 0% of the non Tesla market share. Clearly a busted growth story.

 

[The Accountant]

I used to have a PE of 60 in all my forecasts, but i sleep better at night pricing down to 30 My problem was that net income dropped very sharply when looking into 2026-2030 if i was not including FSD. If robotaxi's become a thing, you could easily double net income and 3-4X the PE for 2025. But i don't feel the need to add it into the valuation model. For me it's all about knowing the potential without FSD, and if FSD gets solved ill just consider it a bonus. Also PE's have been a bit too inflated the last 5+ years.

I hear you! It's tough seeing huge year on year growth once Tesla gets to $300B in annual sales.
I too don't have FSD/RoboTaxi in my long range plan. However, when Tesla solves the battery constraint problem, product & geography expansion will continue to drive strong YoY growth. I have assumed Energy Storage will accelerate post 2026. And now with AI as a new potential future revenue stream, it improves the odds of strong YoY growth continuing.

In 2026, Tesla will have $Billions of Cash to invest, be the leader in Battery Technology and perhaps be a big player in AI technology.
There won't be a lack of innovation and there won't be a lack of money. I think things will become clearer to all in a year or two.

 

[Knightshade]

Turns out they didn’t even need a hit piece FUD anyways. They just yank the stock irregardless. Let’s see how much TSLA underperforms it’s beta yet again

FWIW most of the Q CommentFUD I've seen this morning is around 2 things:

Layoffs on autopilot team, combined with the reintroduction of EAP, "clearly" means they're admitting FSD isn't happening (or isn't happening soon) and they want to recognize more rev and reduce costs on development

and

Austin delivering 2170 is a tacit admission 4680 is ramping poorly



These are actually (relatively anyway) less "requires really weird cherry picking or flat out ignoring how accounting works" theories than usual at least.

 

[oldTAVguy]

Tesla has 0% of the non Tesla market share. Clearly a busted growth story.

"Tesla has 0% of the non Tesla market share."

This is the best one sentence describing Tesla market share.

 

[ZachF]

I hear you! It's tough seeing huge year on year growth once Tesla gets to $300B in annual sales.
I too don't have FSD/RoboTaxi in my long range plan. However, when Tesla solves the battery constraint problem, product & geography expansion will continue to drive strong YoY growth. I have assumed Energy Storage will accelerate post 2026. And now with AI as a new potential future revenue stream, it improves the odds of strong YoY growth continuing.

In 2026, Tesla will have $Billions of Cash to invest, be the leader in Battery Technology and perhaps be a big player in AI technology.
There won't be a lack of innovation and there won't be a lack of money. I think things will become clearer to all in a year or two.

Growth rate will slow as it gets larger, that’s just a function of reality. I think my napkin math had it slowing to about 15% CAGR by the 2030s… still enough to get to $1 trillion in revenue in a ~decade.

20m in auto sales is about $800b, 1TWH of stationary storage is about $200b.

Sky is the limit for robotics, but the forecasting error bars are also gigantic.

1T in revenue with 20% margin and 15% CAGR should have a “fair” P/E of ~30, which is a ~$6T market cap.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Shortzes swimming against the stream as of 10:03 ET (only TSLA and NVDA in the red)



Lol!

 

[elasalle]

Austin 100+/day

https://twitter.com/x/status/1542148326539272196

 

[ZachF]

Austin 100+/day

https://twitter.com/x/status/1542148326539272196

Probably means that Berlin and Austin combined are closing in on 2000/wk.

We should easily be over a 1.5m/y pace by now.

 

[MP3Mike]

* About a thousand Tesla employees in California involved in "labeling" various objects in autopilot images will be laid off.

@Papafox Where is that number coming from? (As that would be almost the entire labeling staff.) What I've read is that it was about 200 employees that were laid off.

 

[elasalle]

Probably means that Berlin and Austin combined are closing in on 2000/wk.

We should easily be over a 1.5m/y pace by now.

Just 1-2 weeks ago ... berlin was at 1K/week . cheers!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Stocks resume upward push as Powell addresses path back to 2% inflation rate | Marketwatch

TSLA noticeably capped c.f. NDX after comments from the FED Chairman. Shortzes think they know sumthin, and will not go away quietly.

Shortzes know nothing.

Cheers!

 

[betstarship]

Tom's Guide on Starlink speeds worldwide with some cool nuggets:

"In Mexico, Starlink had the fastest satellite internet in North America during the first quarter of this year with a median download speed of 105.91 Mbps followed by Starlink in Canada and the U.S. However, in Puerto Rico, HughesNet took the top spot with download speeds of 20.54 Mbps."

How fast is Elon Musk’s Starlink — the results are in

Starlink is faster than ever but is it enough for rural internet users?

www.tomsguide.com

Edit: Mexico was at 7mbps back in 2020 (based on this website) https://fairinternetreport.com/research/internet-speed-by-country

 

[henchman24]

FWIW most of the Q CommentFUD I've seen this morning is around 2 things:

Layoffs on autopilot team, combined with the reintroduction of EAP, "clearly" means they're admitting FSD isn't happening (or isn't happening soon) and they want to recognize more rev and reduce costs on development

and

Austin delivering 2170 is a tacit admission 4680 is ramping poorly



These are actually (relatively anyway) less "requires really weird cherry picking or flat out ignoring how accounting works" theories than usual at least.

Along with the FSD fud, the EAP points to possibility of Tesla trying to save margins on a bad quarter. There are some cracks that can be taken advantage of, and they will be.

Also, the NIO short seller report has an impact on the whole EV market... specifically on those that operate in China. Its dumb but always happens.

More than all of this though... the Fed hawks are still out there in the headlines and pushing for even faster increases in rates. Long duration growth with high PEs are getting hammered. TradeDesk dropped 10% yesterday on zero real news... and it should as it is a 200+ trailing pe stock. NVDA as a ~45 PE is even getting it. Until Tesla can get below ~35 PE... it'll be lumped in to these wider long duration pull backs and be pounced on when they happen. Sadly, with the Shanghai shutdowns we are unlikley to get an extreme growth in ttm PE this quarter. That'll have to wait until Q3.

Today is serious underperformance after we've had outperformance for a while (Nasdaq went a whole level lower than when Tesla hit its lows and Tesla only re-tested its previous low). Nasdaq is at a pretty key point today that could signal a re-testing of lows or showing support at this level. If we re-test overall lows, Tesla breaking below previous low would be a bad sign for the strength of the stock. If Tesla holds, it is another sign of strength in a a weak market. This overall market is currently very weak and it is tough to get going within it, especially as a stock that's valuation is underfire by interest rates.

 

[bkp_duke]

Sandy Munro has a Model Y 4680 incoming for teardown! (~20:40 into the video)


OOOO, can't wait to see the details on this one!

 

[Mengy]

I used to have a PE of 60 in all my forecasts, but i sleep better at night pricing down to 30 My problem was that net income dropped very sharply when looking into 2026-2030 if i was not including FSD. If robotaxi's become a thing, you could easily double net income and 3-4X the PE for 2025. But i don't feel the need to add it into the valuation model. For me it's all about knowing the potential without FSD, and if FSD gets solved ill just consider it a bonus. Also PE's have been a bit too inflated the last 5+ years.

I agree with this 1000% and my own model nearly parallels PKE's here. Any performance above my modest predictions will only be icing on the cake.

 

[ZachF]

Just 1-2 weeks ago ... berlin was at 1K/week . cheers!!

Yep, should be over that now, and 100+/day at Austin is 700/w, add them together and should be at or near 2k.