Megapacks, in particular, have both substantial deployment in Tesla sites and numerous large commercial projects that almost certainly have project accounting rules. Those should be material but are not sufficiently disclosed to know. Perhaps some could be seen by looking into public project finance documents, both the effort would outweigh the value. Further, Megapacks have been known to imply cells from numerous sources (Hornsdale was Samsung SDI, IIRC) and now they seem to be moving to LFP.
In the meantime all major battery suppliers including BYD have competitive offerings. BYD even has a range with wide modular size options.
With all that is visible in stationary storage I no longer think Tesla has major advantages, is simple storage.
I wonder how many of us even think about these:
Every year, electrical grids around the world add more renewable energy. Learn more about how Tesla utility-scale batteries and software controls can dispatch this energy, lower lifecycle costs and create a more stable and sustainable grid.
www.tesla.com
The utility, grid services and distributed storage links are distinctly different:
Tesla has applied its deep experience in battery technology to build out an advanced ecosystem of software that powers its hardware product platform.
www.tesla.com
Quite without our general notice Tesla has scaled the original Autobidder to Opticaster, with Powerhub, Microgram Controller and Virtual Machine Mode allowing quite vast grid services.
Now Tesla has utility licenses in EU, UK, Texas (not yet all permitted) and some others. We've noticed those developments but always thought they were too obscure to measure.
We have all noticed that Tesla is opening Superchargers to other brands, and we have commercial pricing schedules for some places already. We have not noticed that Supercharger sites have increasing storage capacity, that pricing is already demand-variable. Right now we are about to have NA BEVs all able to use Superchargers, and our interest has been limited to whether or not our wait times will increase.
All this means that grid services and Tesla as a storage intermediary has arrived. This market is so gigantic that it swamps automotive. Thus far we've not figured out how to quantify this but we must.
There must be some among us who, like
@Paracelsus , understand the structure of NA energy markets. We need somebody who really understands wholesale energy accounting to help with finding the numbers.
I've been too optimistic several times; maybe I suffer from Elon disease. This time all the pieces are already in place and many are already functioning, almost invisibly, as befits typical electrical grid information worldwide. It all hides in plain sight.
So, take the smallest and most trivial part of all this, BEV charging. If one million vehicles is a Suecharger 3 times per year and US$18 average price and margins for Tesla are 25%, there's at least US$3.5 million annual to the bottom line now. Obviously that much probably happened last year, and this year it's already less consequential than are the utility products. Solar roofs, solar panels, wind farms and other sources are already using these Tesla products and much of the Supercharger network is already operating in grid services.
What should we do? Am I still too optimistic?
