Wall Street got their way way earlier with the Fed, they'll throw another tantrum now too.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Ford reports worst quarterly sales in China since onset of Covid pandemic
Ford on Thursday said it sold 120,000 vehicles during the second quarter in Greater China, a roughly 22% decline from a year earlier.
www.cnbc.com
Not sure if this has been posted already but…Haha
petit_bateau
Active Member
I think there are two serious points in the original offering:
1) Tesla solar roof is expensive vs the alternatives. It would appear that in the US it is cheaper to install a new conventional roof + groundmount panels versus Tesla. Here in the UK when I compare typical PV prices with US Tesla PV prices, the UK is cheaper - which is a terrible inditement of Tesla. Any ways you cut it, Tesla seems to be expensive in the solar game. And looking at the quarterly accounts Tesla doesn't seem to be making money in Tesla Solar either. Since every PV installer I know around the world (and two thirds of solar manufacturers*) is making good money and expanding as fast as they want, the conclusion is that something is going wrong inside the business we might term Tesla Solar.
2. Tesla domestic level storage (i.e. Powerwall) is losing the game globally. Everyone I know is switching to LFP offerings from Huawei etc. Not only is Tesla Powerwall unobtainable, it is also overpriced. And it is not necessarily superior from a product offering viewpoint either. The early mover advantage and the Tesla brand are being squandered. And looking at the quarterly accounts Tesla doesn't seem to be making money in Tesla Home Storage either, not that we get enough detail to be sure. Perhaps Powerwalls are money spinners and Megapacks are money sinks, I don't know (but I think not). Tesla Storage is not delivering in my view in the domestic sector.
So ... this is not how it is supposed to be, and it is not how it should be. It is not as if the business is short of capital. And since those other LFP offerings are able to source cells and silicon devices (chips) then it seems that is not an explanation for the poor performance.
Maybe there wil be jam tomorrow, but there should have been jam yesterday as well as today in this part of the business.
* One-third of global PV manufacturing capacity is at medium or high risk of bankruptcy, IEA says
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The Accountant
Active Member
I agree with you that there is a lack of detail on Tesla's energy business.
My assumption though is that Tesla makes significant margin on Powerwalls, Powerpacks and Megapacks and have huge loses on the solar panel/roof business. Put there is not enough detail for me to prove this position.
Really? It was in Orange County before escaping Disney World to settle in Carolina. Does that imply that you actually were searching for Orange County California and just overshot a bit with each move?
How the two of you can be Teslaphiles [with hydroinformatics on one side and generational excavating skills on the other] might well perplex ordinary mortals.
Lacking any advanced skills in AZ, AK, ID or Disney East I am forced to HODL and admire those peripatetic wise men from afar
Right up to resistance.... Tesla relative strength continuing to show.
Nasdaq is down over 1% and Tesla is flirting with green.... and was green for a while. Relative strength doesn't mean always green, it means doing better than the wider market.
I have lots of space for ground mounts, a luxury that others don't have. Let me be clear, the 104 is after tax credits. It's shockingly expensive.Yes, heaven forbid installation of solar panels on the roof of an abode; you wrote "don't want panels on the roof."
I guess we all have our priorities and, for many of us here at least, leaving a usable planet behind is waaaay up there . . . .
For those that DO care about what is most important, the US Federal Tax Credit drops another 4% again on 31 December. Order your PV system ASAP as I suspect the Senator Joe "Love that Coal and Oil!" Manchin (and the equally guilty 50 Republican Senators) are likely to keep Build Back Better dead forever. Details:
The federal residential solar energy credit is a tax credit that can be claimed on federal income taxes for a percentage of the cost of a solar photovoltaic (PV) system. (Other types of renewable energy are also eligible for similar credits but are beyond the scope of this guidance.)
The system must be placed in service during the tax year and generate electricity for a home located in the United States. There is no bright-line test from the IRS on what constitutes “placed in service,” but the IRS has equated it with completed installation.
In December 2020, Congress passed an extension of the ITC, which provides a 26% tax credit for systems installed in 2020-2022, and 22% for systems installed in 2023. (Systems installed before December 31, 2019 were eligible for a 30% tax credit.) The tax credit expires starting in 2024 unless Congress renews it.
There is no maximum amount that can be claimed.
Source:
Homeowner’s Guide to the Federal Tax Credit for Solar Photovoltaics
This guide provides an overview of the federal investment tax credit for those interested in residential solar photovoltaics, or PV.www.energy.gov
(Note that this may have a material impact on Tesla Solar's earnings, especially given the higher cost--and subsequent tax credits--on the Solar Roof.)
As for leaving a sustainable planet behind- I too think that's the most important thing. We live it, I don't think anyone on the forum does as much as our family and our little company. Day in day out, all week all year, no vacation in 3 years. If you ever get to northern VA shoot me a message and I'll take you on some site visits. Spending money foolishly doesn't solve the problem.
To be effective the solar roof system must be roughly similar to the alternative basket (roof + solar from another source). It can even be a premium. It can't be double the costs. Otherwise it's capital that is being poorly allocated. Capital allocation needs to be effective.
I'm in the middle of the Caribbean with anemic connectivity, but ETrade seems to be OK. Sounds like TD is NG.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
We're at a point where spending more than needed on renewables can have a net negative impact on progress. We're scaling, not early adopting.
Renewables plus battery storage is now cheaper and far better than adding any other type of capacity. That needs to be the narrative and reality so everyone understands there's a purely economic reason to accelerate this transition.
Trying too much can be our worst enemy. Look at residential solar market in the US. Everyone wants it, but sales cost is still 20-30% of the pricetag. The most comon hindrance to customers buying solar......is the noise and cost of the customer acquisition model itself.
Megapacks, in particular, have both substantial deployment in Tesla sites and numerous large commercial projects that almost certainly have project accounting rules. Those should be material but are not sufficiently disclosed to know. Perhaps some could be seen by looking into public project finance documents, both the effort would outweigh the value. Further, Megapacks have been known to imply cells from numerous sources (Hornsdale was Samsung SDI, IIRC) and now they seem to be moving to LFP.
In the meantime all major battery suppliers including BYD have competitive offerings. BYD even has a range with wide modular size options.
With all that is visible in stationary storage I no longer think Tesla has major advantages, is simple storage.
I wonder how many of us even think about these:
Utilities | Tesla
Every year, electrical grids around the world add more renewable energy. Learn more about how Tesla utility-scale batteries and software controls can dispatch this energy, lower lifecycle costs and create a more stable and sustainable grid.
Tesla Energy Software | Tesla Support
Tesla has applied its deep experience in battery technology to build out an advanced ecosystem of software that powers its hardware product platform.
Now Tesla has utility licenses in EU, UK, Texas (not yet all permitted) and some others. We've noticed those developments but always thought they were too obscure to measure.
We have all noticed that Tesla is opening Superchargers to other brands, and we have commercial pricing schedules for some places already. We have not noticed that Supercharger sites have increasing storage capacity, that pricing is already demand-variable. Right now we are about to have NA BEVs all able to use Superchargers, and our interest has been limited to whether or not our wait times will increase.
All this means that grid services and Tesla as a storage intermediary has arrived. This market is so gigantic that it swamps automotive. Thus far we've not figured out how to quantify this but we must.
There must be some among us who, like @Paracelsus , understand the structure of NA energy markets. We need somebody who really understands wholesale energy accounting to help with finding the numbers.
I've been too optimistic several times; maybe I suffer from Elon disease. This time all the pieces are already in place and many are already functioning, almost invisibly, as befits typical electrical grid information worldwide. It all hides in plain sight.
So, take the smallest and most trivial part of all this, BEV charging. If one million vehicles is a Suecharger 3 times per year and US$18 average price and margins for Tesla are 25%, there's at least US$3.5 million annual to the bottom line now. Obviously that much probably happened last year, and this year it's already less consequential than are the utility products. Solar roofs, solar panels, wind farms and other sources are already using these Tesla products and much of the Supercharger network is already operating in grid services.
What should we do? Am I still too optimistic?
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MartinAustin
Active Member
Didn't Elon sell his shares in the $900's ? If he ends up not buying TWTR he may call his broker immediately - before the news is really out - and say "buy TSLA" - and it would rocket up, and he could end up with more than he had to start with.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
We're almost certainly getting capped here for a $749 close, but volume is pretty good.....
I'm sure there will be a huge fight to keep it below 750. Might break intermittently, but I think we are looking at a close in the 743-746 range.
That said, if the Nasdaq recovers, 760 will be the next battleground and likely the last one until 800.
SunCatcher
Member
I'm in AZ,use TD Ameritrade, and am experiencing no problems with it at all this morning. Not sure why they're picking on you personally.
Bloomberg is reporting that the Twitter execs (including the CFO) and Elon are going to be at this Sun Valley Conference at the same time. He's set to speak on Saturday.
Edit: here's the source.
Edit: here's the source.
Tesla crash/investigation FUD doesn't seem to work anymore. I'm barely seeing it picked up on outlets even.
It is not at all surprising to me that elon would meet Pope Francis who wrote the Encyclical in 2015 on Care for Our Common Home (Climate Change etc.)
Laudato si' (24 May 2015) | Francis
Encyclical Letter Laudato si' of the Holy Father Francis on care for our common home (24 May 2015)
not at all surprising Tesla and Elon are executing much of the vision in the 2015 encyclical .. i know many people think the catholic church is backwards and does not believe in science etc....this could not be further from the truth ... just another example of FUD
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