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He’s getting to those numbers by having expectations that the price hikes ove the past 2-3 quarters will start hitting earnings in a big way starting in Q2.

I would remind people, while ASP increased in Q1, I still haven’t seen the impact from those price hikes actually flow into earnings in any meaningful way. Maybe Q2 is the quarter it finally happens

I agree the price-ramp should have significant impact on margins.

Best I can tell, Q2 will "start" to see it, but the bulk of the post-2021 orders land in Q3 and forward
 
My understanding of HIPAA is that personal health information can't be disclosed without the patients permission.

Is there some corollary wherein you can't post your health info to be read online without my permission? If not, Mods Gods make it so! Or else move it to the off topic gory section of the forum?

HIPAA is strictly about what you doctor/hospital can release without your permission. You are free to say whatever the heck you want about yourself.
 
Off-topic, but objectively, I would have not used staples there. I know they are common on the head, but unless the guy was going to grow his hair out, that's going to be a prominent scar. IMHO a wound like that thread like this deserves a little more TLC to reduce scaring. I once spent and entire ER shift on a woman's back (pushed through a plate glass window) doing subcuticular stitching because . . . scars matter (I stopped counting after the equivalent of ~400 stitches).
Because it's scary enough, already. Thank you, everyone.
 
I don't really care if robotaxi becomes reality. My hope is simply for greater transport efficiency that's also 100% EV so we can turn our focus to the grid.
Robotaxis are important for ensuing all of the world has access to affordable transport.

Many believe that beyond a 90% renewable grid, the last 10% gets expensive.

Every year the Australian scientific research organisation CSRIO publishes a generation cost report, Google CSIRO GenCost.

The authors of the GenCost report think an Australian 100% renewable grid needs less storage than is commonly assumed. That might also be true elsewhere.

I'm in the Tony Seba camp expecting a relatively rapid transition to clean energy and transport, mainly because China is driving a very aggressive ramp of domestic EV production. EV market share is an Olympic 100 metre sprint, China and Tesla are out of the blocks.

The war in Ukraine has focused many on the need to wind back Fossil Fuel dependency.
 
Someone else's freedom to speak should not impact my freedom to not listen or read.

They need to carry their [paltry] gore to an appropriate place.

We could totally discuss code of conduct on a public forum, decency, moderation policy etc - none of that would have ANYTHING to do with HIPAA, which was the only matter I addressed.

OK, back to the thread topic: Q2 numbers coming in the near future. They should show Tesla remains solidly profitable even with factory lockdowns, supply chain drama, and slower-than-hoped-for ramp-ups.
 
We could totally discuss code of conduct on a public forum, decency, moderation policy etc - none of that would have ANYTHING to do with HIPAA, which was the only matter I addressed.

OK, back to the thread topic: Q2 numbers coming in the near future. They should show Tesla remains solidly profitable even with factory lockdowns, supply chain drama, and slower-than-hoped-for ramp-ups.
and a huge bitcoin impairment.
 
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Cory Steuben from Munro Live is interviewed. I thought the most interesting bit was where he talked about the GigaPress. For all its advantages, he explains that it is worthless if you can't get the throughput high enough. He says an auto plant typically puts out a car every 45 seconds.

This sounded low to me, but I assume he was taking multiple production lines into account?

So if the GigaPress can't keep up with the production rate then you might as well not use it. In this case, you need it to output a casting every 45 seconds or buy more GigaPresses.

As the resident Gigapress here on the forum I want to add to this.

Manufacturing lines in general need to have smooth flow through the production system with minimal inventory, which is achieved by matching the cycle time of every production step so that everything remains synchronized. In car manufacturing, around 45-60 seconds is the typical cycle time as Cory said.

However, steps can have a longer cycle time than the rest of the production system as long as they can be parallelized. Cory’s example numbers were:

“What it really comes down to is: can your throughput match your production? And so, getting the cycle time down in the area of a minute, now you’re matching the speed of the assembly line in final assembly. So essentially most plants will put a car out every 45 seconds to 60 seconds, and so if the machine is taking 120 seconds, right, you need twice as many machines and then it becomes less valuable. So almost more important than the capability of the machine is the ability to match throughput and that’s something that’s kind of overlooked. So the fact that a machine that large can output castings that fast is more impressive than just the scale of the machine, and the reason I mention that is if it took 5 minutes per part it would never make sense…”

In Cory’s example, if Tesla’s factory operates on a 60 second cycle but a Gigapress spits out a casting every 120 seconds, this can be balanced out by having two Gigapresses that collectively output a casting every 60 seconds. In practice, incongruent cycle times aren’t always a clean whole number multiple like 120/60=2, but this can be overcome by rounding up and then having periodic machine downtime or slowing down their operational speed.

Analogy: A fast food sandwich shop will typically have one production line for assembling the sandwiches sequentially, but will have like 4 toasters. This is because the cycle time for each toaster is roughly 4 times longer than the cycle time for the sandwich assembly and cash register, so for smooth flow without a toaster bottleneck there must be multiple toasters that can work simultaneously in parallel and feed into the next step.

Ideally you’d need only one gigapress for the front casting and one for the rear and fortunately it appears IDRA and Tesla have achieved this. However, I’d bet the business case would still be strong even if Tesla had to buy twice or three times as many gigapresses per line because the savings are so large from eliminating 30% of the body shop, getting better first-pass quality and reducing vehicle weight.

Also, 45 second cycle time is actually pretty fast. 31,536,000 seconds in a year. With maybe 75% overall uptime including daily breaks, holidays, maintenance etc. , that’s half a million cars annually per line.
 
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HIPAA is strictly about what you doctor/hospital can release without your permission. You are free to say whatever the heck you want about yourself.

BINGO. And I will point out, there is a certain (stupid) republican congresswoman that once said asking about someone's vaccination status is a HIPAA violation. It most certainly is not.
 
It almost feel like Tesla wants to leverage their brand value, High end brand, screw it, we will increase prices, no one is close to copying our vehicle yet, let's go to Apple way, You could buy $300 Android phone but Apple say we will charge $700.00 plus, people are still buying it.
If they drop the price $10K they are leaving money on the table that others will scoop up. A buyer could sell their new car for $10K more than they paid, plus a time premium of another $5K or more. Without a doubt.
Tesla isn't setting the price so much as they are trying to find where the price is at. It's the buyers who ultimately control the price.
 
If they drop the price $10K they are leaving money on the table that others will scoop up. A buyer could sell their new car for $10K more than they paid, plus a time premium of another $5K or more. Without a doubt.
Tesla isn't setting the price so much as they are trying to find where the price is at. It's the buyers who ultimately control the price.

Supply and demand determine the market price. Demand is sky high, and Tesla can't source components / build factories fast enough to meet demand. Only option is to increase price until you can scale up. Econ 101.
 
If they drop the price $10K they are leaving money on the table that others will scoop up. A buyer could sell their new car for $10K more than they paid, plus a time premium of another $5K or more. Without a doubt.
Tesla isn't setting the price so much as they are trying to find where the price is at. It's the buyers who ultimately control the price.
My only fear is , Tesla will increase their volume significantly over next couple years, finding buyer who is willing to pay 66K for Model Y could run into problems. Having said that, Elon is no dummy, he will come out with lower trim version of Y at lower starting price if demand becomes an issue.
 
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My only fear is , Tesla will increase their volume significantly over next couple years, finding buyer who is willing to pay 66K for Model Y could run into problems. Having said that, Elon is no dummy, he will come out with lower trim version of Y at lower starting price if demand becomes an issue.

Which is why you sell every Tesla you can make right now at a premium price while demand outstrips supply, and farm the profits into higher optimized factories, supplier deals, even get into mining if that appears to be a cost bottleneck so that when you're able to make enough cars to meet supply you have the option of dropping prices and still make a nice profit - with better margins than any of your competitors can accomplish.
 
Most people don't realize it but this quarter earning is very important, Elon is sending all kind of mixed signal, Tesla is burning ton of money because of ramp of Burlin and Texas at the same time. He even went to as far as saying Tesla is worthless unless we solve FSD, I don't buy this, because competition is still hanging out in low volume/high cost arena.
 
Q2 chart now updated with the Tesla Economist estimate:

View attachment 829580
A question about these numbers. Are they the mean, median or the mode of the estimated distribution?

1658106325654.png


For example if you estimate that Tesla will make $1 eps but there is a 10% chance they will recognize $2 eps in deferred revenue, is that a mean of $1.2 or a mode of $1?
 
My only fear is , Tesla will increase their volume significantly over next couple years, finding buyer who is willing to pay 66K for Model Y could run into problems. Having said that, Elon is no dummy, he will come out with lower trim version of Y at lower starting price if demand becomes an issue.

There are a few different options here.

1. Keep finding ways to lower production costs and/or live with a bit lower margin on higher volumes.

2. Create lower trims, LFP, RWD, smaller batteries, etc.

3. Get FSD working.

4. Introduce new more compact models. with smaller batteries.

As far as we know Elon and Tesla are currently not pursuing compact models, because they think FSD will work sometime soon, and/or they don't currently have the resources to do it.

I think Tesla will eventually need to do all of 1..4
 
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There are a few different options here.

1. Keep finding ways to lower production costs and/or live with a bit lower margin on higher volumes.

2. Create lower trims, LFP, RWD, smaller batteries, etc.

3. Get FSD working.

4. Introduce new more compact models. with smaller batteries.

As far as we know Elon and Tesla are currently not pursuing compact models, because they think FSD will work sometime soon, and/or they don't currently have the resources to do it.

I think Tesla will eventually need to do all of 1..4
I think they are pursing compact models, but Tesla will keep their mouth shut as long as it necessary, they knows cannibalization very well.