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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
ZachF
Active Member
So on a positive note, saw my personal physician in person yesterday for the first time in quite a while. Turns out he's a Tesla man himself and has gotten his order in for a tri-motor CyberTruck fairly close to the start of ordering. Anyway, he got his delivery notice last week for October 15, 2023, which bodes quite well for production starting in mid 2023! He was also asked if he wanted to convert to a quad motor, to which he said yes enthusiastically, which may move his delivery date up some.
Anyway, it's great that folks are now receiving delivery notices on the CyberTruck! Seems like it will finally be a reality!
Go longs!
Anyway, it's great that folks are now receiving delivery notices on the CyberTruck! Seems like it will finally be a reality!
Go longs!
ZachF
Active Member
Cybertruck Quadmotor will be the “it” car of the 2020s
It's real, I trust this man implicitly.
CyberTruck is a go!
CyberTruck is a go!
Are we sure he actually got a notice? I'd think that would be news that is all over the place if people were getting notices.
Delivery notice? Whoa.....bullish if true...not that i am questioning the integrity of your personal physician, but agreed with @henchman24, this would be all over the news and probably push $TSLA to $950
Well, we'll see. You're right, surely he can't be the only person to receive a delivery notice. Hopefully we'll be inundated with news shortly and maybe it will be brought up tomorrow at the shareholders meeting.Delivery notice? Whoa.....bullish if true...not that i am questioning the integrity of your personal physician, but agreed with @henchman24, this would be all over the news and probably push $TSLA to $950
Would be a very nice surprise if Tesla announced the start date of the Cybertruck at the Shareholders Meeting. Like an actual date (month...hell I'll even take an exact quarter) instead of just the broad 2nd half of 2023.
MountainRatMat
Member
Get us a screen shot of the notice for the record.
Tesla can't even figure out a Model 3 delivery within a week, you really think they can nail it down to over a year?
"Good morning wipster. I've reviewed your lab results and I have good news and bad news"
"What's the good news, doc?"
"I'm getting a cybertruck"
This would be amazing news, indeed. I'm about to board a plane right now on my way to Austin for tomorrow's meeting. It would be fantastic to hear some confirmation to the rumor and I'd love to be flying down again around that time next year to pick my own Cybertruck up.
Krugerrand
Meow
Still, meh.To all of us who support the Tesla mission it is quite relevant to have huge success from at least several participants for every part of global transition to sustainable energy.
Thus I, like Elon Musk, hope for others to succeed. Tesla is only as successful as is the global adoption of renewable energy and BEVs. He has been very clearly disappointed in slow and minimal adoption.
For that reason I hold that the rapid development and success of Chinese BEVs is a rare case of widespread industrial support to Tesla's aims.
We might even think of analogies. Was there ever a global transition that depended on only one company?
Cases from Singer, Colt, Ford, and so on, all were prime movers of new technologies, as is E. Musk.
None invented the things they perfected, although their roles were fundamental to wide adoption.
Thinking for the Tesla mission we should recall how important Elon has repeatedly emphasized how important wide adoption really is.
Bluntly, Tesla can only thrive when BEVs become popular as utility level storage has done, as utility level photovoltaics and wind power have become. Tesla is thriving in those too, but si not the single largest player in some fo it.
To imagine Tesla must command the total market or even the dominant share is to suggest the total market will not successfully compete. Should that dominance continue a decade from now Tesla will have been a failure, commanding a huge share of a small market.
Giving competitors access to Superchargers is only the first step. Tesla is also helping battery suppliers learn how to improve, by buying from all the good ones and helping them do better.
CATL and BYD are just the beginning also. It's instructive that Mr. Musk knows both and actively helps them. It serves Tesla narrow and long term goals at the same time. That SAIC and others help teach legacy OEMs how to produce BEVs is also serving the Tesla mission.
So, yes, the Chinese are important. They may well be the only significant participants to be learning what they need to learn to help the world transition to sustainable energy.
Most of us are ready to write off all the legacy OEMs. Directly, that is probably correct. However, several of the least likely are learning , reluctantly, from the Chinese.
One early obvious example was that only Chinese owned IDRA could muster the capital expense and time to build a 6000 tom press. Bühler, certainly the preferred vendor, refused. What happened? Bühler changed their outlook quickly and became deeply committed themselves. That may seem irrelevant. I don't think so. Soon even BMW will see they've missed the manufacturing revolution.
In my opinion, there are three impediments to widespread success. 1) Legacy OEM need to seriously feel pain beginning with Toyota and BMW. 2) Labor unions need to understand their options. 3) Governments need to become serious quickly. All three are strained now, whether their stakeholders can see it or not.
The realization will become acute once they all see that BEV building can be and is, cheaper than ICE.
With evolving battery technology, new better materials (i.e. cheaper and more effective), and gigantic presses all the pieces will be nearly complete. It's very, very close now. The final piece is one that Tesla now has, an effective 'factory operating system'. In my opinion that last piece will begin just as soon as Geico-Taikihsa:
begins to show how Tesla Grüneheide paint shop works.
Why doI say that is the final piece? Because that paint shop is essentially impossible to retrofit. It is also essentially impossible to sue without a complete factory OS. That also, by itself, can save more than 5% of total production cost, more than just the paint, because to make it work the entire production line needs to be optimized.
So, long-winded though it is, thus far it seems that all the orders for the two giant cost cutters, quality enhancers are from Tesla and Chinese OEM and suppliers. Nobody can try to do those at all without confidence that they can build a new factory with technologically competent human beings.
Now that the most important suppliers are already deeply committed we're not too far away from some revolutionary decisions by some of those traditional OEM's. The ones that don't will not survive the transition. Obviously that means quite a few failures.
I don’t disagree strongly enough with the views and premises set forth here to go point by point. And I concede that a lot of people will be onboard with your take on things.
I just don’t actually think it turns out how you’re expecting it to anymore than how Elon thought it would go down, or all the naysayers and opinionated sorts and vaporware specialists and ‘I hung out a sign so that makes me an expert’ people thought is was going to go just to this point. Every single one of those myriad of people were flat out, straight up, categorically wrong and still are. Many people here were wrong and they believed enough in Elon, Tesla, The Mission to bet on it.
IMO, you’re making the same mistakes as all who came before and still spout Tesla death knells and we’re coming to get you, Tesla, and impassable obstacles. You’re reasoning by analogy and what you’ve experienced in life, what’s come before, and extrapolating that forward.
I mean how can I possibly argue Elon and his companies won’t essentially own the whole planet? It’s never happened so that has to mean it can’t happen. Right? Governments will step in, they won’t let Tesla get too big, they won’t let their OEMs die, OEMs will get bailed and regroup yet again and come guns blazing, Tesla can’t do it all etc…. Yeah, your way sounds like a likely scenario given historical data.
But what if it doesn’t happen that way? That’s what I’m banking on. Full bore chaos and Stranger Things upside down world. I see an entirely different path and future for this planet and mankind. Prepare to have your mind blown.
Ultimately, though, it doesn’t make a lick of difference to me if I’m right or you’re right, neither of us will be here as our current selves to say I told you so.
So is the quad-motor the same price as the tri-motor?
Have a great time and ask a lot of questions my friend!
I had very low expectations for this week. There's very little that "forces" Wall St to act this week and in fact, I won't at all be surprised by a bear raid on Friday. Might actually do some LEAP buying if that happens.
Then a rebound on Monday as the FOMO sets in for the stock split, which I expect the date of the stock split to happen the same day as the shareholders meeting or Friday, the day after.
I'd absolutely love if Tesla announced something wildly unexpected at the shareholders meeting which causes a buying frenzy on Friday but we all know there's like a .001% of that happening. The shareholder meetings are usually more a snooze fest type thing.
Is this real?
Am I missing the joke?
This is huge news! I don't think most of WS even believes the CyberTruck will ever ship.
Seems like Austin is ready to make a another material increase in production rates
(New logistic/delivery lot paved and lined)
Sounds like not everyone in the Rust Belt is happy with the proposed EV legislation. The requirement for mineral sourcing and processing in the US or country with a Free Trade agreement is going to prove tough.
/cloudfront-us-east-2.images.arcpublishing.com/reuters/4T2D37C74FJ6XMRSADQAOM66DE.jpg)
www.reuters.com
Hadn’t really thought about this, but this essentially makes all Model 3s ineligible, the less expensive ones due to LFP content, the more expensive due to pricing. Model Y fares a bit better I think. Not sure about where Panasonic gets their minerals sourced. Texas cells should be safe here?
Since GM & Ford source all their batteries from China and Asia, they aren’t loving this either.
Rivian is complaining about the cap for obvious reasons.
Maybe round 3 is going to get scuppered as well.
Automakers press U.S. Senator Manchin for changes to EV tax credit proposal
Automakers want Democratic Senator Joe Manchin to revisit his proposal to restructure the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, raising fears it could be largely unworkable because of new sourcing requirements for battery components and critical minerals.
www.reuters.com
Hadn’t really thought about this, but this essentially makes all Model 3s ineligible, the less expensive ones due to LFP content, the more expensive due to pricing. Model Y fares a bit better I think. Not sure about where Panasonic gets their minerals sourced. Texas cells should be safe here?
Since GM & Ford source all their batteries from China and Asia, they aren’t loving this either.
Rivian is complaining about the cap for obvious reasons.
Maybe round 3 is going to get scuppered as well.
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