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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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So on a positive note, saw my personal physician in person yesterday for the first time in quite a while. Turns out he's a Tesla man himself and has gotten his order in for a tri-motor CyberTruck fairly close to the start of ordering. Anyway, he got his delivery notice last week for October 15, 2023, which bodes quite well for production starting in mid 2023! He was also asked if he wanted to convert to a quad motor, to which he said yes enthusiastically, which may move his delivery date up some.

Anyway, it's great that folks are now receiving delivery notices on the CyberTruck! Seems like it will finally be a reality!

Go longs!
As much as I’d love for this to be true. This strikes me as highly unlikely.

I wonder if your physician was scammed.
 
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So on a positive note, saw my personal physician in person yesterday for the first time in quite a while. Turns out he's a Tesla man himself and has gotten his order in for a tri-motor CyberTruck fairly close to the start of ordering. Anyway, he got his delivery notice last week for October 15, 2023, which bodes quite well for production starting in mid 2023! He was also asked if he wanted to convert to a quad motor, to which he said yes enthusiastically, which may move his delivery date up some.

Anyway, it's great that folks are now receiving delivery notices on the CyberTruck! Seems like it will finally be a reality!

Go longs!

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To all of us who support the Tesla mission it is quite relevant to have huge success from at least several participants for every part of global transition to sustainable energy.

Thus I, like Elon Musk, hope for others to succeed. Tesla is only as successful as is the global adoption of renewable energy and BEVs. He has been very clearly disappointed in slow and minimal adoption.

For that reason I hold that the rapid development and success of Chinese BEVs is a rare case of widespread industrial support to Tesla's aims.

We might even think of analogies. Was there ever a global transition that depended on only one company?
Cases from Singer, Colt, Ford, and so on, all were prime movers of new technologies, as is E. Musk.
None invented the things they perfected, although their roles were fundamental to wide adoption.
Thinking for the Tesla mission we should recall how important Elon has repeatedly emphasized how important wide adoption really is.

Bluntly, Tesla can only thrive when BEVs become popular as utility level storage has done, as utility level photovoltaics and wind power have become. Tesla is thriving in those too, but si not the single largest player in some fo it.

To imagine Tesla must command the total market or even the dominant share is to suggest the total market will not successfully compete. Should that dominance continue a decade from now Tesla will have been a failure, commanding a huge share of a small market.

Giving competitors access to Superchargers is only the first step. Tesla is also helping battery suppliers learn how to improve, by buying from all the good ones and helping them do better.

CATL and BYD are just the beginning also. It's instructive that Mr. Musk knows both and actively helps them. It serves Tesla narrow and long term goals at the same time. That SAIC and others help teach legacy OEMs how to produce BEVs is also serving the Tesla mission.

So, yes, the Chinese are important. They may well be the only significant participants to be learning what they need to learn to help the world transition to sustainable energy.

Most of us are ready to write off all the legacy OEMs. Directly, that is probably correct. However, several of the least likely are learning , reluctantly, from the Chinese.
One early obvious example was that only Chinese owned IDRA could muster the capital expense and time to build a 6000 tom press. Bühler, certainly the preferred vendor, refused. What happened? Bühler changed their outlook quickly and became deeply committed themselves. That may seem irrelevant. I don't think so. Soon even BMW will see they've missed the manufacturing revolution.

In my opinion, there are three impediments to widespread success. 1) Legacy OEM need to seriously feel pain beginning with Toyota and BMW. 2) Labor unions need to understand their options. 3) Governments need to become serious quickly. All three are strained now, whether their stakeholders can see it or not.

The realization will become acute once they all see that BEV building can be and is, cheaper than ICE.
With evolving battery technology, new better materials (i.e. cheaper and more effective), and gigantic presses all the pieces will be nearly complete. It's very, very close now. The final piece is one that Tesla now has, an effective 'factory operating system'. In my opinion that last piece will begin just as soon as Geico-Taikihsa:
begins to show how Tesla Grüneheide paint shop works.

Why doI say that is the final piece? Because that paint shop is essentially impossible to retrofit. It is also essentially impossible to sue without a complete factory OS. That also, by itself, can save more than 5% of total production cost, more than just the paint, because to make it work the entire production line needs to be optimized.

So, long-winded though it is, thus far it seems that all the orders for the two giant cost cutters, quality enhancers are from Tesla and Chinese OEM and suppliers. Nobody can try to do those at all without confidence that they can build a new factory with technologically competent human beings.

Now that the most important suppliers are already deeply committed we're not too far away from some revolutionary decisions by some of those traditional OEM's. The ones that don't will not survive the transition. Obviously that means quite a few failures.

Nominated for "Moderators' Choice: Posts of Particular Merit". Thank-you.
 
As much as I’d love for this to be true. This strikes me as highly unlikely.

I wonder if your physician was scammed.
Now I wish I had a follow up appointment with him! I seriously doubt he was scammed especially with the upgrade to quad. I'll see what else I can find out, but it's kind of tough to get in touch with a doctor to ask Tesla questions. Hopefully we'll hear more about this tomorrow.
 
Now I wish I had a follow up appointment with him! I seriously doubt he was scammed especially with the upgrade to quad. I'll see what else I can find out, but it's kind of tough to get in touch with a doctor to ask Tesla questions. Hopefully we'll hear more about this tomorrow.
You should schedule a follow up appt....let's say around the release of Q4 numbers....just for 'precautionary reasons' like a heart attack on how much $$$ your portfolio will be rising.


☺️ ☺️ ☺️ ☺️ ☺️
 
Hadn’t really thought about this, but this essentially makes all Model 3s ineligible, the less expensive ones due to LFP content, the more expensive due to pricing. Model Y fares a bit better I think. Not sure about where Panasonic gets their minerals sourced. Texas cells should be safe here?
I don't think that the bill necessarily makes Model 3s ineligible.

It's not clear what the rules will be about price. It could be that only the base price needs to fall below the cap. If that's the case then all Model 3's would qualify. If you look at a Tesla purchase agreement, things like extended range and performance package are considered to be options.

The LFP packs might be OK under the rules as long as final pack assembly happens here and the minerals are sourced from a free trade country (even if refined in China it would still qualify).

It all depends on how the rules are set after the legislation is passed. But I think Tesla could make the necessary adjustments in order to make all Model 3 and Model Y qualify.
 
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I would looooove to see two really tough US crude supply reports the next two Wednesdays and cap it off with a calm CPI report on the 10th.

We have a real good chance to put this inflation peak behind us the next couple weeks.
So far, so good. This week's crude/fuels supply report came in with merely a modest build, but futures pricing felt it. Oil down 4% this afternoon.

A week from today we have hopefully another report putting downward pressure on this oil trade that's already cracked, plus a hopefully positive CPI report.
 
I don't think that the bill necessarily makes Model 3s ineligible.

It's not clear what the rules will be about price. It could be that only the base price needs to fall below the cap. If that's the case then all Model 3's would qualify. If you look at a Tesla purchase agreement, things like extended range and performance package are considered to be options.

The LFP packs might be OK under the rules as long as final pack assembly happens here and the minerals are sourced from a free trade country (even if refined in China it would still qualify).

It all depends on how the rules are set after the legislation is passed. But I think Tesla could make the necessary adjustments in order to make all Model 3 and Model Y qualify.
The above has some caveats I just read about.

Exclusion of vehicles with inputs sourced from "foreign entities of concern"...

Basically, it looks like it boils down to this for the LFP Model 3:
  • Cells manufactured in China would make the car ineligible in 2024.
  • Critical minerals processed in China would make the car ineligible in 2025.
 
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Well, we'll see. You're right, surely he can't be the only person to receive a delivery notice. Hopefully we'll be inundated with news shortly and maybe it will be brought up tomorrow at the shareholders meeting.
If nobody has concocted a fake “Your Cybertruck is ready for delivery, click here to confirm your delivery date“ phishing attack yet, I’m sure they will soon. “Pay your initial deposit in bitcoin to lock in your configuration!”

People believe what they want to believe and after years of working with doctors, many of them are likely more vulnerable to this kind of thing.
 
If nobody has concocted a fake “Your Cybertruck is ready for delivery, click here to confirm your delivery date“ phishing attack yet, I’m sure they will soon. “Pay your initial deposit in bitcoin to lock in your configuration!”

People believe what they want to believe and after years of working with doctors, many of them are likely more vulnerable to this kind of thing.
I just sent an email to him requesting that he give me a call on a non-medical issue. I'll let you all know what I find out.
 
Better yet, why is post-growth 125 PE Amazon up 4.x% while Tesla is up 2.x%
🧐
What really boggles the mind is when you start looking at PEG numbers and not just Amazon, but Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, and so on.

Tesla's PEG is currently 2.1
Apples PEG is 2.8
Microsoft PEG is 2
Nvidia PEG is 2.65
Amazon PEG is .............................7.7 🥴

Keep in mind.............Tesla's PEG is based on the average of estimates for the next 5 years of earnings. Which we all know are laughably low. But even based on those laughably low 5 year Earnings estimates, TSLA is still cheaper than Apple, Nvidia, and Amazon by quite a bit and Microsoft is the only one priced relative to TSLA
 
Well, we'll see. You're right, surely he can't be the only person to receive a delivery notice. Hopefully we'll be inundated with news shortly and maybe it will be brought up tomorrow at the shareholders meeting.
Kindly call them, ask if this was true and ask if they provided any money/PII (Personal Identifiable Identification) as they may have been spoofed. If not, then great, thank your friend for making my day and many others.

The only reason I think this could be true is that I/we know you are truthful (longtime poster) as opposed to your physician.
 
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