Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[hobbes]

V3 stalls have 250kW independent to each pedestal. The electrician I talked to while they were installing locally said the electrical service he was installing could handle all 8 pedestals at max capacity simultaneously.

V2 is 150kW shared between an A and B pedestal.

As this got a disagree rating: I can confirm that is true at least for Europe.

 

[growler23]

Good comment IMO, unfairly perhaps but I can’t help but find a bit of connection with StarShip also. Once StarShip reaches orbit I would not be surprised if Tesla is not an ancillary beneficairy.

"Ancillary Beneficiary" could be the next Ann Leckie (sci fi) book. A bit chilling to think SpaceX would get there anytime soon (shiver).

Spoiler: OT: "Ancillary Justice"

OT: Ancillary Justice
Awesome SciFi book
Really don't want SpaceX (or all of us) to become Ancillaries though
(Highly recommend that book but if you must TL;DR: in the book, Ancillaries = AI-controlled human bodies. Many bodies per AI. No bueno for the original intelligences inhabiting said bodies)

 

[LYTRIDR]

As this got a disagree rating: I can confirm that is true at least for Europe.

Yeah, others too have updated my knowledge base. Cunningham's law at work. Thanks all!

 

[hobbes]

The electrical service might be able to, but the V3 infrastructure can't. (The site may have been overprovisioned for future expansion.) Unless they have changed the V3 cabinets recently. (Or the site has a lot of battery storage, which most don't.)

A V3 cabinet can only supply ~88kW per stall, but it can share power with other cabinets and batteries. Most sites don't have battery storage. So if the site is full each stall gets ~88kW. (Bjorn even commented on that in a recent video, so it applies to the V3 installed in Europe as well.) Even with sharing and battery storage the most that a cabinet can deliver to all 4 stalls at once is ~230kW.

A 8 stall, 2 cabinet, install with no battery storage would max out at ~175kW/stall with 4 stalls in use. So you would have to double the number of cabinets per install to meet the BBB requirements. (Or have ample battery storage.)

Of course, everyone coming in with a low SoC, and fully pre-conditioned, is likely to never happen, so it isn't normally a bottleneck and nobody even notices.


I thought it was ~350kW per cabinet.

View attachment 838184

Can you link to Bjoern´s video you mention? I have never been limited on the V3 chargers I have used in Europe (only by my own battery´s state of charge). From what I know, V3=250kW per stall independent, V2=150kW per 2 stalls shared. Maybe this has something to do with the different connectors? In Europe, the V3 chargers have only CCS connectors.

 

[kbM3]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556619702386008065

Pierre Ferragu on Twitter: “Aren’t lawmakers hopeless? What is the point of making a $7,500 credit for EVs, whereas EV supply will be below demand for years, if not a decade? I appreciate the +ve for $TSLA - will help margins, but it isn’t it a waste of taxpayer money? Maybe I am missing something?”

Ferragu is correct that it won’t increase Tesla’s production, since they’re already increasing at an historic pace that cannot be improved.

But it should make EVs and PHEVs more profitable for legacy and induce them to increase production of those at the expense of regular hybrids and gas vehicles.

 

[traxila]

Seeing WAY BELOW average volume for all big techs and QQQs... except for TSLA coming in at slightly above average on this August day.

Can only be reconciled with relentless selling, which is why we have gone flat.

No duh, you say. OK who is selling and why? Are there really that many traders that are bailing or betting on further downside right now? Peculiar....

Take the green day I guess.

 

[Usain]

How about swapping the battery pack for a larger one with an upgrade.
Easier to do with new structural, 4680 battery pack architecture?

Sell < 55K config with smaller battery pack (< 200 miles ... still beats 7kWh PHEV ) .... after 3 mths provide an upgrade option to a larger battery pack with 300+ miles?
(+ rather than swap, remove the empty slots and add more cells as part of servicing)?

I wouldn't call it easy. Also, the seats and center console are attached to the structural pack.

Easier to just ship the bigger battery and allow unlock with software. You could charge $54,990 with a range so small that almost everyone would pay for the unlock.

I just don't know if the government would let Tesla get away with it.

 

[Singuy]

Ferragu is correct that it won’t increase Tesla’s production, since they’re already increasing at an historic pace that cannot be improved.

But it should make EVs and PHEVs more profitable for legacy and induce them to increase production of those at the expense of regular hybrids and gas vehicles.

This is a good bill. Having China controlling most of the world's battery material will end up biting people in the butt just like what EU is dealing with Russia. This bill help diversify production, but specifically bringing battery materials inhouse. This is the best part of the bill and brings battery pack manufacturing/raw material mining back into North America which needed to happen like half a decade ago.

 

[thx1139]

Ferragu is correct that it won’t increase Tesla’s production, since they’re already increasing at an historic pace that cannot be improved.

But it should make EVs and PHEVs more profitable for legacy and induce them to increase production of those at the expense of regular hybrids and gas vehicles.

To many takes on the EV Tax Credit act like it is like a 1, 2, 3 year program. It is 10. It will do very little for overall EV adoption the 1st couple years. Should they have made it start 2025. Oh yeah that would have worked well. Should they have waited to pass it in 2024 for 2025. Oh yeah thats a good idea, NOT.

 

[Curt Renz]

TSLA closed near the low of the session. Nevertheless, it gained 0.78%. A gain of 0.78% compounded for each of the 251 market days in a year, would result in a price 7 times what it closed today.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Isn’t it wonderful that government can write such a comprehensive bill in clear, easy to understand language? What would be the point of writing a convoluted one, where people would have to discuss for days on end what it all meant and then afterwards walk away scratching their heads?

People continue to suck in every way imaginable. I noted Elon said Earth would be okay. He didn’t say people were going to be okay.

Next up, a 23 page instruction guide on how to boil wieners.

Mel Brooks voiceover: "Gentemen, we have to protect our phoney-baloney jobs".

P.S. TSLA closed 2 cents above its 10-Day MA

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

This is a good bill. Having China controlling most of the world's battery material will end up biting people in the butt just like what EU is dealing with Russia. This bill help diversify production, but specifically bringing battery materials inhouse. This is the best part of the bill and brings battery pack manufacturing/raw material mining back into North America which needed to happen like half a decade ago.

I really don't get the outrage that I've seen on Twitter (and some gross misinformation by clueless Tesla bulls cough......WholeMars......cough)

It's a United States tax exemption/credit. Of course it should require US investment. Tesla avoided a Union clause which is a big win, not just for Tesla, but other EV makers as well.

 

[ZeApelido]

Not to change the subject, but Stallantis (current owner of Chrysler) has got and is developing some pretty competitive BEV's in Europe and I doubt it would take too much modification to bring them to the US. I know Dodge is already planning to convert the Challenger and Charger to electric, but some new affordable and proven vehicles that could be built in the States under an American moniker might make for more BEV adoption in the US.

Any comments from our European members are welcome!

Stallantis's best chance of survival is changing the Dodge brand to Doge and make their cars in this shape.

 

[thx1139]

I really don't get the outrage that I've seen on Twitter (and some gross misinformation by clueless Tesla bulls cough......WholeMars......cough)

It's a United States tax exemption/credit. Of course it should require US investment. Tesla avoided a Union clause which is a big win, not just for Tesla, but other EV makers as well.

Tesla investors
Tax Credit does nothing for Tesla because all the cars will be sold anyway

Tesla investors
Tesla wont be able to offer the tax credit for cars in 2023 because Tesla may not hit the material sourcing requirements.

Hey maybe this bill really isnt about 2023 EV sales, hell maybe not even 2024.

 

[thesmokingman]

In other fail news, Toyota still hasn't figured out why the wheels are falling off its EV the BZ4X, so if you can't wait for them to figure it out, they'll buy it back. Roflmao. You can't make this *sugar* up.

Toyota is offering to buy back an electric SUV because its wheels could fall off

In June, Toyota issued a warning to owners of its BZ4X electric SUV that they should stop driving the vehicle and have it transported to a dealership because of a severe problem: the wheels could fall off while driving even after just a short time on the road.

www.cnn.com

 

[snellenr]

Karen writes:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1556659450005671937

This is too cute... Karen quotes the law's provision that "licensed" dealers are approved at the federal level and jumps from there to saying that Tesla qualifies "by all means" - therefore, it's good!

Except that her screen grab shows that the law specifically says that the licensing is done by the states... and the problem states (like Michigan) only allow licensing by franchised dealers, not direct-sales manufacturers like Tesla.

 

[mongo]

This is too cute... Karen quotes the law's provision that "licensed" dealers are approved at the federal level and jumps from there to saying that Tesla qualifies "by all means" - therefore, it's good!

Except that her screen grab shows that the law specifically says that the licensing is done by the states... and the problem states (like Michigan) only allow licensing by franchised dealers, not direct-sales manufacturers like Tesla.

No, it says "a state" as in any state (along with all other applicable entities).
Tesla sells vehicles somewhere; therefore, at a federal level, they qualify. Or rather, wherever they sell vehicles, they can get the credits.

‘‘(8) DEALER.—For purposes of this subsection, the term ‘dealer’ means a person licensed by a State, the District of Columbia, the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, any other territory or possession of the United States, an Indian tribal government, or any Alaska Native Corporation (as defined in section 3 of the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act (43 U.S.C. 1602(m)) to engage in the sale of vehicles.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What is this $25k Tesla model that fake newsed its way into existence?

That was the price of the Tesla Compact Car as discussed by Elon at the June 2018 AGM:

Elon Musk Tesla Shareholder Q&A (June 2018)

It then appeared "under wraps" in the Sep 2020 Battery Day slide deck, where Elon also announced that most Tesla cars would ship with LFP batteries in the future, and high-nickel chemistry would be exclusively for long-range cars + Semi. LFP is critical for EV affordability.

Robotaxi has since been moved up in the product pipeline (I think that'll be the "factory announced later this year", likely to be next door to Giga Shanghai. But that Model is not the $25K car.

So, inflation adjusted, the Compact Car is now more likely to be ~$30K USD, but sold in Yuan and Euros from China, Berlin, and maybe others (Seoul? Osaka? Jakarta?). Large, crowded Asian megacities, and old European cities with narrow streets and limited parking demand a compact car, and Tesla will provide one in due course (once its profitable to make one).

Cheers!

 

[oneday]

This is too cute... Karen quotes the law's provision that "licensed" dealers are approved at the federal level and jumps from there to saying that Tesla qualifies "by all means" - therefore, it's good!

Except that her screen grab shows that the law specifically says that the licensing is done by the states... and the problem states (like Michigan) only allow licensing by franchised dealers, not direct-sales manufacturers like Tesla.

So people from those states will buy out of state, just like they do now. Same difference, just now they’ll be *possibly* also getting a credit Federally.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Let's see how this MMD goes. I'm saying 892 then back up to 915.

10-Day Moving Average. Surprise.