Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[rallykeeper]

Just wanted to drop a heads up to some of you. As one of the chumps (savvy investors?) who bought TSLA after the "funding secured" tweet 4 years ago, I received a notice from my broker today about submitting a claim. It was a pretty easy process to submit everything online (including redacting the necessary documents, it took me about 20 minutes). I still hold those sub-$80 cost basis shares, so it's pretty much bonus money for me.

Deadline is September 17 if you're eligible.

Information here for those eligible or just curious: https://www.secvteslafairfund.com.

It'll be interesting to see how much of my eligible claim ultimately gets paid -- you never get 100 cents on the dollar in these things.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Shenanigans, like I wrote before expect more of them leading up to the split.

At least the split will take the “I owe you” shares that are used for naked shorting out of the market for the few days leading up to Aug 17.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Did squwak square hijack @StarFoxisDown! account? Asking for a friend

Haha is squwak square posting something similar?

I don't particularly like to be in agreement with that guy since his trades/timing are terrible, but the trend/pattern is so obvious that a preschooler could call it out.

What's becoming very clear is how little buying interest there is for TSLA at this valuation. Now before anyone jumps on that statement, what I mean is that Wall St, as usual, it completely clueless to what is about to happen with Tesla's earnings starting in Q3. So to Wall St, they have no desire to buy TSLA at this valuation. That dynamic drastically changes with each earnings going forward since it will drop TSLA's TTM, Forward P/E, and PEG materially each time.

But for the time being, this is open season for MM's and the stock will be completely dictated by them. I doubt the split makes any difference at all. Like I said, MM's will cover their naked shorts over 1-2 days, the stock will pop and right after the "record" date, they'll just put those same naked shorts in place.

 

[MP3Mike]

V3 stalls have 250kW independent to each pedestal. The electrician I talked to while they were installing locally said the electrical service he was installing could handle all 8 pedestals at max capacity simultaneously.

The electrical service might be able to, but the V3 infrastructure can't. (The site may have been overprovisioned for future expansion.) Unless they have changed the V3 cabinets recently. (Or the site has a lot of battery storage, which most don't.)

A V3 cabinet can only supply ~88kW per stall, but it can share power with other cabinets and batteries. Most sites don't have battery storage. So if the site is full each stall gets ~88kW. (Bjorn even commented on that in a recent video, so it applies to the V3 installed in Europe as well.) Even with sharing and battery storage the most that a cabinet can deliver to all 4 stalls at once is ~230kW.

A 8 stall, 2 cabinet, install with no battery storage would max out at ~175kW/stall with 4 stalls in use. So you would have to double the number of cabinets per install to meet the BBB requirements. (Or have ample battery storage.)

Of course, everyone coming in with a low SoC, and fully pre-conditioned, is likely to never happen, so it isn't normally a bottleneck and nobody even notices.

They are done in groups of 4 not 8. The initial V3 systems did not have 250kW per stall, and in fact had just 380kW between four stalls though I think there are now better V3 systems.

I thought it was ~350kW per cabinet.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Haha is squwak square posting something similar?

I don't particularly like to be in agreement with that guy since his trades/timing are terrible, but the trend/pattern is so obvious that a preschooler could call it out.

What's becoming very clear is how little buying interest there is for TSLA at this valuation. Now before anyone jumps on that statement, what I mean is that Wall St, as usual, it completely clueless to what is about to happen with Tesla's earnings starting in Q3. So to Wall St, they have no desire to buy TSLA at this valuation. That dynamic drastically changes with each earnings going forward since it will drop TSLA's TTM, Forward P/E, and PEG materially each time.

But for the time being, this is open season for MM's and the stock will be completely dictated by them. I doubt the split makes any difference at all. Like I said, MM's will cover their naked shorts over 1-2 days, the stock will pop and right after the "record" date, they'll just put those same naked shorts in place.

Nah...he did not, but your previous post was something that follows his daily mantra

 

[elasalle]

I couldn't find a topic on Redwood Materials so I am posting it here. Loup Ventures thinks Redwood is more than battery recycling. They are moving into battery manufacturing too using those recycled materials.

Redwood Materials Is Onto Something Bigger Than Battery Recycling | Deepwater

I often wonder who will be behind the next big idea. If I wrote a book on the topic, Elon Musk would have a few chapters, which is one of the reasons I stay current on what he’s thinking. Recently, he participated in the FT’s Future of the Car event. What caught my attention was…

loupfunds.com

Here is a snippet that caught my attention, and I thought it didn't make sense to me. Cathode is the "positively" charged end of the battery that discharges electrons ?

View attachment 838182

Elon said Tesla is recycling 50 packs a week, and they aren't much packs to recycle ...
.... so what # of packs could Redwood be recycling?

(Redwood is recycling computer, cell batteries as well ...)

 

[TN Mtn Man]

SUVs are derivatives of light trucks.
Station wagons are derivatives of passenger vehicles.
Model Y is a light truck because it has 3 rows of seats and the rear 2 sets fold for more cargo area.
Mach E is only 2 row
(Tailgate is not defined)
40 CFR § 600.002 - Definitions.

49 CFR § 523.5 - Non-passenger automobile.

That's one of the most ridiculous claims I've ever seen. There is nothing remotely "truck-based" about the car. (BTW, not attacking you-it's a government def and I don't expect sense there).

 

[Singuy]

Haha is squwak square posting something similar?

I don't particularly like to be in agreement with that guy since his trades/timing are terrible, but the trend/pattern is so obvious that a preschooler could call it out.

What's becoming very clear is how little buying interest there is for TSLA at this valuation. Now before anyone jumps on that statement, what I mean is that Wall St, as usual, it completely clueless to what is about to happen with Tesla's earnings starting in Q3. So to Wall St, they have no desire to buy TSLA at this valuation. That dynamic drastically changes with each earnings going forward since it will drop TSLA's TTM, Forward P/E, and PEG materially each time.

But for the time being, this is open season for MM's and the stock will be completely dictated by them. I doubt the split makes any difference at all. Like I said, MM's will cover their naked shorts over 1-2 days, the stock will pop and right after the "record" date, they'll just put those same naked shorts in place.

People are taking profits and potentially positioning themselves for additional squeezes. During these erratic times where the QQQ goes from bright green to bright red for zero reason, no one cares about fundamentals. Everyone is too busy playing music chairs.

You can scream through the roof top about Tesla's being undervalued, but no one thinks you are a genius when bed bath and beyond went up 30% today.

 

[Skipdd]

Yup, TSLA back to trading like a dog. Sure was nice to get a couple weeks of reprieve from how terrible TSLA trade's but now back to regularly scheduled programming.

Yes TSLA will likely pop on 1 or 2 days over the next two weeks. But MM's do their usual thing to made the stock underperform to account for those 1-2 day pops.

This thing likely trading like a dog until Q3 P/D or Q3 earnings. At this point, I think the only thing that will force this issue is blowout earnings on a large scale that rapidly drop TSLA's TTM P/E and/or force Moody's/S&P into the credit rating upgrade. Don't be at all surprised when TSLA rockets 15-20% in a single day for no reason followed by a Moody's/S&P rating upgrade the following week

Sigh, I’ve resigned myself to accept this pattern may continue until not only are Tesla’s earnings and FCF ginormous (I will leave the figures to the SMEs), Q over Q, but one or two of the other companies go out of business or are merged into others. Like how many ignored Amazon until, brick and mortar stores started closing, or on the cloud front, most smaller players bowed out. So maybe another few years until it is obvious to all that Tesla is a juggernaut of unimaginable value and one of the best ways to make money as an investor. I would love to be wrong and have this recognition occur much sooner. Until then, I will keep accumulating.

 

[thesmokingman]

You can scream through the roof top about Tesla's being undervalued, but no one thinks you are a genius when bed bath and beyond went up 30% today.

That's nothing, I raise you KRTX +74%... heh.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

People are taking profits and potentially positioning themselves for additional squeezes. During these erratic times where the QQQ goes from bright green to bright red for zero reason, no one cares about fundamentals. Everyone is too busy playing music chairs.

You can scream through the roof top about Tesla's being undervalued, but no one thinks you are a genius when bed bath and beyond went up 30% today.

That's kinda my point. There is no genuine buying interest in TSLA at this valuation right now. Thus, practically all movement in the stock is what MM's want it to be. Simple as that.

The only thing that is surprising to me as how much MM's are willing to stretch this out. Maybe they're confident in another macro downturn or leg down. Maybe they're hoping for another Covid Shanghai shut down. But the longer the stock gets artificially held down, the less they're going to get in options. And that's because as Tesla's valuation compresses further and further into value territory, there's only one way for the stock to go, and that's up. MM's will lose half their potential returns because no ones going to place bets (Puts) on TSLA at a TTM P/E of say 50.

 

[Singuy]

That's nothing, I raise you KRTX +74%... heh.

Well AMTD started it up with the +1050%..lol

 

[Usain]

Isn't FSD also an option that can be added post purchase? Perhaps there are other options that could be installed OTA that would allow the original purchase price to be $50K or less.

Also, does the bill allow for inflation? If the rebate is applicable for 10 years, things are certainly going to cost more (although maybe not BEV's). Inflation should definitely be included if it will be available for that length of time.

It's hard to know what Tesla will be allowed to get away with when it comes to offering a crippled version that is unlocked after the sale.

I don't see anything in the EV section of the bill regarding inflation. So I'm pretty sure that's a "no".

 

[jabloomf1230]

It's hard to know what Tesla will be allowed to get away with when it comes to offering a crippled version that is unlocked after the sale.

I don't see anything in the EV section of the bill regarding inflation. So I'm pretty sure that's a "no".

Aha! Now we know why BMW made options like heated seats and a heated steering wheel available as subscriptions. /s

 

[Singuy]

That's kinda my point. There is no genuine buying interest in TSLA at this valuation right now. Thus, practically all movement in the stock is what MM's want it to be. Simple as that.

I think MM are busy trying prevent a market collapse this week due to these short squeezes. The option market for Tesla is kind of meh as IV is crushed down to the 50s. Tesla's action will likely be as much as watching paint dry compared to the rest of the market this week unless we have a disclosure of Elon selling then movement will not be positive that's for sure.

 

[thesmokingman]

Well AMTD started it up with the +1050%..lol

Crazy ass stock with such sketchy movement as it's lost most of that gain.

 

[EVMeister]

Crazy ass stock with such sketchy movement as it's lost most of that gain.

That's no way to talk about TSLA.

 

[WattsHappening]

That's kinda my point. There is no genuine buying interest in TSLA at this valuation right now. Thus, practically all movement in the stock is what MM's want it to be. Simple as that.

The only thing that is surprising to me as how much MM's are willing to stretch this out. Maybe they're confident in another macro downturn or leg down. Maybe they're hoping for another Covid Shanghai shut down. But the longer the stock gets artificially held down, the less they're going to get in options. And that's because as Tesla's valuation compresses further and further into value territory, there's only one way for the stock to go, and that's up. MM's will lose half their potential returns because no ones going to place bets (Puts) on TSLA at a TTM P/E of say 50.

Makes sense. We keep hoping the investment public will see the same things we do. Between the stock split dates being announced on Friday and the IRA bill getting passed by the Senate, I would think there would be more buying of TSLA at this price. But trading volume makes it clear that investors are not bought into the good news. I expect CPCA numbers this evening will not move the market unless there is a big surprise. Perhaps August and September CPCA numbers, which could be huge, might open some eyes. Or maybe we have to wait until Q3 P&D report, or Q3 earnings. Who knows.

Oh well, just a matter of time as we all know the long term outcome is inevitable. Another reason to heed the advice to continue to buy and HODL common shares.

 

[elasalle]

It's hard to know what Tesla will be allowed to get away with when it comes to offering a crippled version that is unlocked after the sale.

I don't see anything in the EV section of the bill regarding inflation. So I'm pretty sure that's a "no".

How about swapping the battery pack for a larger one with an upgrade.
Easier to do with new structural, 4680 battery pack architecture?

Sell < 55K config with smaller battery pack (< 200 miles ... still beats 7kWh PHEV ) .... after 3 mths provide an upgrade option to a larger battery pack with 300+ miles?
(+ rather than swap, remove the empty slots and add more cells as part of servicing)?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Makes sense. We keep hoping the investment public will see the same things we do. Between the stock split dates being announced on Friday and the IRA bill getting passed by the Senate, I would think there would be more buying of TSLA at this price. But trading volume makes it clear that investors are not bought into the good news. I expect CPAC numbers this evening will not move the market unless there is a big surprise. Perhaps August and September CPAC numbers, which could be huge, might open some eyes. Or maybe we have to wait until Q3 P&D report, or Q3 earnings. Who knows.

Oh well, just a matter of time as we all know the long term outcome is inevitable. Another reason to heed the advice to continue to buy and HODL common shares.

I wasn't expecting anything like the first split, so I had pretty tempered expectations. But for buying interest to evaporate so quickly on the first day after is pretty bearish. The CPCA numbers will be ignored by Wall St like they always are unless they're negative, in which case everyone runs the story.

To me, the mindset is more "how low will Wall St manage to take TSLA down before Q3 numbers" verses "how high can TSLA go before Q3 numbers". The trading action today spells it out that the split will be a non event. As I mentioned before, the credit rating upgrade could be the only catalyst that could cause a breakout from here......of which Wall St will know of it well before any of us here will.