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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Food for thought. Announcing the split with the market in its current low /conservative valuation condition all but guarantees no chance of having the same fireworks as the market timing of the previous split. If it weren't for Elon's desire to reward his hard working Tesla employees that are participating in the stock purchase program with some action, I suspect Tesla would just wait for much better timing. But, alas, we know Elon values his employees far more than short term SP movement. Maybe the next split can be timed better...
 
Good volume neuters the MMD today and we head further north. Nice!

You called the top within 5 min - impressive.

TSLA.2022-08-08.10-38.Hi.png
 
This is too cute... Karen quotes the law's provision that "licensed" dealers are approved at the federal level and jumps from there to saying that Tesla qualifies "by all means" - therefore, it's good!

Except that her screen grab shows that the law specifically says that the licensing is done by the states... and the problem states (like Michigan) only allow licensing by franchised dealers, not direct-sales manufacturers like Tesla.
But they get around it by letting you buy the car in a different state where they are a licensed dealer under the law. So everyone who qualifies can still get the tax credit no matter what state you live in.
 
In other fail news, Toyota still hasn't figured out why the wheels are falling off its EV the BZ4X, so if you can't wait for them to figure it out, they'll buy it back. Roflmao. You can't make this *sugar* up.

Gets my vote for the biggest BEV fail of the year.

If course, it was the Bolt last year.
 
Gets my vote for the biggest BEV fail of the year.

If course, it was the Bolt last year.
Jury is still out, there is another 4.5 months left in 2022 for some even more boneheaded problem to crop up.

Plus, we still haven't seem how much the Mustang Mach-E failure will set them back. Toyota's issue only affects a couple thousand cars. My feeling is the longer Ford's temporary fix is in place, the more expensive the ultimate solution will be. They are scrambling around right now trying to find a solution to their billion dollar problem.
 
Seeing WAY BELOW average volume for all big techs and QQQs... except for TSLA coming in at slightly above average on this August day.

Can only be reconciled with relentless selling, which is why we have gone flat.

No duh, you say. OK who is selling and why? Are there really that many traders that are bailing or betting on further downside right now? Peculiar....

Take the green day I guess.
Right around the time in the afternoon when QQQ started heading south, I noticed a lot of chatter in a trading forum about people starting to load TSLA puts. They were using the usual words like "cult" and Elon's just pumping the stock, etc. I think it's relative outperformance of late is making it a target for traders to push down on at any sign of weakness in the market.
 
Right around the time in the afternoon when QQQ started heading south, I noticed a lot of chatter in a trading forum about people starting to load TSLA puts. They were using the usual words like "cult" and Elon's just pumping the stock, etc. I think it's relative outperformance of late is making it a target for traders to push down on at any sign of weakness in the market.
So......nothing new....more daily shenanigans.
 
Gigafactory Canada might be getting more traction:

Electric Autonomy Canada requested comments from Ontario’s minister of economic development, job creation and trade Vic Fedeli, federal minister of Innovation, Science and Education (ISED) François-Philippe Champagne, and three representatives from Tesla.

Minister Fedeli had “no comment” on the question of whether or not Tesla is looking to set up additional facilities in Ontario.

However, in an email sent to Electric Autonomy Canada after his initial decline to comment, Fedeli stated: “By reducing the cost of doing business by $7B annually, Ontario has attracted $16B in EV investments in the last 20 months.


This goes also with what he said at the Aug 6th shareholder meeting:
During the meeting Elon said that Tesla "might be able to announce another factory location later this year." When Elon asked where the next Gigafactory should be, the crowd shouted out various locations. Elon then said:

"We get a lot of Canada. I am half Canadian, maybe I should?"

Due to the now expectable high demand at high prizes for the Model Y for many years in the US, the rumor of a new Gigafactory in Canady, Ontario makes a lot of sense to me. A location in between the Gigafactory in Buffalo, Toronto and Detroit would be attractive for experienced workers and could be cleverly placed from a logistic standpoint. From a marketing standpoint it makes Tesla a more attractive brand in Canada. Canada further has a free trade agreement with the US:
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

To enable an early ramp of the Model Y, Tesla probably wants to start as early as possible with ramping the general assemby line (my guess is early 2024). Components such as Battery packs, motors and maybe even Gigacastings can be delivered at the beginning. Until batteries from a dedicated battery plant are available, the battery packs can be delivered by train either from Austin or from the newly announced Panasonic battery plant in de Sotos, Kansas. Intrestingly, Kansas lies about in the middle between Austin and Southern Ontario.

Panasonic‘s new plant offers a risk mitigation for a slower than expected ramp of Teslas own 4680 production, so no backup plan with 2170 batteries is required any more.

From my perspective, building and ramping of both Austin and Berlin took a bit longer than expected by Elon, while Shanghai was superfast. Of course there are many interesting places for new Gigafactories in the World. But my guess is that they are looking for a low drama approach for the next gigafactory.

Further, last but not least; A while ago I came across a job posting at Giga NY where Tesla mentioned that the project is going to be something like the biggest factory in the world. But there was never a big announcement. So they might already have a team working on this project. My guess is that a Gigafactory not too far from Buffalo was already examined as an alternative for the new Gigafactory in Austin.
 
Unless this is only the first year's warranty costs, it means nothing. 2017 cars accumulated 4 more years of warranty repairs.
That is NOT the way it works. You need to consider warranty claims through the entire warranty life. Accruals by model, factory, supplier parts and so on all contribute. For many major issues (e.g. Takata airbags, LG pouch batteries, Taycan fires, Bolt) suppliers pay all or part of claims). Thus some items do show as warranty expense, with warranty reserve being credited for supplier contribution. YMMV, not all OEM follow the same practices even though the public ones all do follow GAAP.

There are two distinct numbers that combine to give a good view of reality. First, warranty expense (quarterly, annual). Second, warranty reserve progression.
The best source of public information on the subject in the US is Warranty Week.

Because they cover all industries the insights help understand how the entire accounting and process work.
For those who've read my periodic missives on the subject, please excuse my repetition.

Finally, even during the worst times of Tesla warranty costs back in 2013-2015 their results were far better than they were perceived as being.
Part fo that was because even in the worst situation Tesla has major cost advantages by:
-constant online communication with every product;
-frequent solicitation to service when some part needs attention to avoid failure (e.g. 12 batteries);
-continuous improvement to reduce failures, cost of repair and simplicity of repair;

This is not a trivial subject partly because errors can destroy a company (e.g. NSU long ago), destroy models/major parts (GM V 2.4.8, Ford Pinto, GM flexible driveshaft, GM diesel conversion of V8, BMW e23 745, a long list) but often the very existence of major issues is deeply hidden (Porsche Taycan Fires, diesel ),
Toyota b24X right now is a good example. All the expenses of all f those end out flowing through warranty books, including regulatory penalties.
Sorting all this ends out being both arcane and material.

Tesla has never had anything remotely like any of those listed above. Not even at the worst of times. Why? check the direct sales and service model for many clues to the answer. Check Tesl actual accounting policies for more clues.
 
I'd like to add ... he is the human who made me the most money ;) more than what I could make for myself :) /s

I dunno, I think we have to attribute some of our gains to FUDsters, CNBC, TSLAQ and the like. At least those of us who bought or added to our positions in 2017-2019. Basically, any shares purchased at prices lower than the known facts would dictate need to attribute some of that low price to FUDsters. And, to remain consistent, we have to credit Elon with his many instances of sticking his foot in his mouth and even his recent large sales of shares that resulted in buying opportunities. Because profit is the difference between your buy and sell prices.

Of course, if Elon were not such a revolutionary industrialist, the FUD wouldn't have existed anyway. So maybe we can say that Elon's awesomeness is responsible for the rise of Tesla FUDsters and therefore all of our TSLA gains can be attributed to him anyway. But Elon couldn't have done it alone, so let's not forget how awesome the various teams at Tesla are, including the rest of management. It's obvious there is some magic going on behind the curtain that contributes in a primary way to the awesome performance we have seen, and continue to see, through some very trying times with COVID supply chain challenges and the like.

Tesla has most of its opportunity ahead of itself still. In fact, Irwin Jacobs and his small team of brainiacs made me more dollars, on a smaller investment, in only 18 months than TSLA has made for me in the last 4 years. It went 36x. And that was over 20 years ago when a dollar was worth a lot more than it is now. I find it interesting that prominent and incessant FUD also played a major role in my gains involving another great disrupter that was much quieter and less flamboyant than Elon Musk. The work they did was revolutionary in terms of wireless data and is heavily utilized in everything from WiFi to cellphones in order to cram as much data as possible into the finite resource of radio spectrum. The remaining opportunity for TSLA, in multiple sectors, dwarfs that of Qualcomm. It just requires continued execution. Time is the magic ingredient and that's why it's important to have Elon at the helm making deadlines that are far too short and forcing things along.

People who are unwilling or unable to recognize the greatness of Elon's achievements like to call those that do, cultists. The cult of Elon or the cult of Tesla. Detractors said exactly the same thing about Irwin Jacobs and Qualcomm. But that is only because they are blind to the reality right before their eyes. It would only be cult-like behavior if we were overly impressed with something that was ordinary or, alternatively, something that was not even real. I'm one of the last persons to become involved with cult like behavior, that is, believing strongly in something without strong supporting evidence.

Cults have a set of beliefs that is supported by nothing more than faith. Faith is believing in something without enough supporting evidence to sustain those beliefs without faith. Elon and Tesla have amply demonstrated so much superiority in terms of manufacturing prowess and design and engineering exceptionalism, compared to legacy auto, that it appears cult-like to those who are unwilling or unable to see how extraordinary Tesla's achievements really are. They ascribe the "high" stock price to cult-like buying behavior, apparently unable to process the astounding profit margins in a rational manner. To these people, TSLA will always be overpriced and TSLA investors will always be cultists. Because they cannot imagine that anything could ever be extraordinary. That anything could ever be exceptional. That the status quo would not always be the status quo.

I'm fully aware that past exceptionalism does not guarantee future exceptionalism. But I also know that Tesla has a huge head start in industries that do not lend themselves to rapid change. Tesla also continues to attract some of the best and brightest minds on the planet. Common sense should inform which horse to bet on. But it has long been known that common sense is not always so common. The true cultists are those who claim Elon Musk is not extraordinary, that Tesla cannot manufacture cars more efficiently than the real automotive experts like GM, Ford, Toyota, VW and BMW, and that Tesla is not in the lead in autonomy. Because the facts do not support that set of beliefs. It is truly an anti-Tesla, anti-Elon Musk cult. I don't join cults, I take advantage of them. I've made a lot of money by betting against cults and suggest that everyone do the same. Because cults are not based upon reality, that's what makes them a cult. Just make sure the timeframe of your bet is long enough to overcome the natural noise and volatility of the markets.
 
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At least the split will take the “I owe you” shares that are used for naked shorting out of the market for the few days leading up to Aug 17.

NASDAQ will announce Short Interest as of July 30, 2022 after the close of trading tomorrow. It will be interesting to see what change in SI has occured since the "pre-announcement" of the 3:1 split via dividend (intent of which was announced by Tesla way back in March)

Tesla 8-K "Share Dividend" | (Mar 28, 2022)​

Obviously, the smarter cheats will have been covering their naked shortzes sooner rather than later...
 
FYI. A fun aggregation of all sorts of TSLA price targets.
Crazy ass stock with such sketchy movement as it's lost most of that gain.
I was going to ask how someone does not liquidate once they hit 900%+ gains, but then I remembered that I'm all in TSLA still. So glass houses and all that.
 
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Due to the now expectable high demand at high prizes for the Model Y for many years in the US, the rumor of a new Gigafactory in Canady, Ontario makes a lot of sense to me. A location in between the Gigafactory in Buffalo, Toronto and Detroit would be attractive for experienced workers and could be cleverly placed from a logistic standpoint. From a marketing standpoint it makes Tesla a more attractive brand in Canada. Canada further has a free trade agreement with the US:

TESLA Giga Factory CANADA Makes Perfect Sense #tsla | Farzad Mesbahi