Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Usain]

From Elon's essay in China Cyberspace magazine (bold type emphasis added)

Today’s cars are increasingly like smart, web-connected robots on wheels. In fact, in addition to cars, humanoid robots are also becoming a reality, with Tesla launching a general-purpose humanoid robot (Tesla Bot) in 2021. The Tesla Bot is close to the height and weight of an adult, can carry or pick up heavy objects, walk fast in small steps, and the screen on its face is an interactive interface for communication with people. You may wonder why we designed this robot with legs. Because human society is based on the interaction of a bipedal humanoid with two arms and ten fingers. So if we want a robot to adapt to its environment and be able to do what humans do, it has to be roughly the same size, shape, and capabilities as a human.

With Elon being Elon . . .I am not sure what to make of this. Perhaps launching a prototype intended for Tesla's use and not a commercial product yet.
Interested to see what's presented on AI Day2 Sept 30th.

I just took it to mean that he officially launched the project in 2021. It might not be so clear because of something lost in translation?

 

[Singuy]

From Elon's essay in China Cyberspace magazine (bold type emphasis added)

Today’s cars are increasingly like smart, web-connected robots on wheels. In fact, in addition to cars, humanoid robots are also becoming a reality, with Tesla launching a general-purpose humanoid robot (Tesla Bot) in 2021. The Tesla Bot is close to the height and weight of an adult, can carry or pick up heavy objects, walk fast in small steps, and the screen on its face is an interactive interface for communication with people. You may wonder why we designed this robot with legs. Because human society is based on the interaction of a bipedal humanoid with two arms and ten fingers. So if we want a robot to adapt to its environment and be able to do what humans do, it has to be roughly the same size, shape, and capabilities as a human.

With Elon being Elon . . .I am not sure what to make of this. Perhaps launching a prototype intended for Tesla's use and not a commercial product yet.
Interested to see what's presented on AI Day2 Sept 30th.

maybe lost in translation. The appropriate word here is "announcing", not launching. Don't forget this is a translation of a translation.

 

[wtlloyd]

Why Rivian is still no Ford or Tesla: Morning Brief — Yahoo Finance

What to watch in markets on Monday, August 15, 2022.

apple.news

Hmm. The guy is saying Tesla and Ford succeed because they have flashier CEO, and Rivian fails because it does not!
I would say this is rather shallow thinking. What says you?

Read that and thought exactly the same. Stupidest sugar someone ever got paid to write.

 

[Mengy]

maybe lost in translation. The appropriate word here is "announcing", not launching. Don't forget this is a translation of a translation.

Yep. Tesla Bot clearly did NOT launch last year, unless they are being sold on the super secretive underground black market or something!

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Oil down 4-5% as the "inflation" trade continues to crumble.

Saudi Aramco made ~$50B last quarter(probably after skimming another $40B). Hopefully people recognize they're simply being gouged.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Several of the individuals covering Tesla at the main rating agencies are being called out on Twitter by someone who used to do same/similar job.

Example tweet -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558463067981131778

In 3 days she will be doing another Youtube collab with @Farzad (hopefully got right handle) + Gary Black (this time). I suspect rating upgrades/excuses/forces of darkness will be discussed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559015781429542919

Alexandra has vowed to tweet that table every day until the upgrade happens. So far, she has been true to her word.

 

[Paul_SF]

Oil down 4-5% as the "inflation" trade continues to crumble.

Saudi Aramco made ~$50B last quarter(probably after skimming another $40B). Hopefully people recognize they're simply being gouged.

And what people will do, burn their cars? Maybe switch to water or something to run their cars?

 

[StealthP3D]

One thing I feel Dan have done is made the mannequin child to be very small and low. Based on the video I feel like the child is half the size of yours and perhaps toddler size who wouldn't be able to walk or stand. I have never seen a walking child just few inches taller than the front bumper.

Are you saying short babies don't deserve to live?

/s

I had the same thoughts as you, so I looked up the height of babies at walking age. At 14 months babies are still measured by "length" not "height". Girls average 30" long, boys 31" long. I would say the garden gnome was perhaps shorter than that. But it doesn't matter much, I'm sure there are toddlers that height.

Tesla did not train the neural net using video taken at a racetrack, with no lane markers save for a double line of cones, no shoulders or curbs and no oncoming lanes. The scene has no context, and the garden gnome is not moving. I would not be surprised if the FSD version tested really did mow down the garden gnome in such a scenario. How many real babies in the real world is this particular "weakness" going to kill or injure?

The answer is a big fat zero! Tesla is very data driven. That means their effort is focused on making FSD work in the real world such that it is much safer than the average human. It won't work in all scenarios and the fact that it fails in a scenario that one can conceive of but that doesn't really exist in the real world, at least not exactly like that one, doesn't really matter. It might sound cold and heartless to the average person, but FSD is a statistical problem. Does it kill and injure more or fewer people than the current status quo? FSD will never be 100% perfect and it doesn't have to be to save hundreds of thousands of lives.

You can devise artificial scenarios in which humans will fail almost 100% of the time as well. Just put that garden gnome in front of a 4x4 2022 F150 then lead a human driver into the cab and tell them to drive to the far end of the empty parking lot. They will run over the gnome every time! Should we outlaw human drivers? Better yet, should we outlaw vehicles with tall hoods that have no view of small children in front of the vehicle?

Dan O'Dowd is the modern-day laughingstock, equivalent of the horseless carriage company owners who thought automobiles were too dangerous to replace horse-drawn carriages and should be outlawed. He simply doesn't matter. You cannot stop an idea whose time has come.

 

[Artful Dodger]

CATL Drive in Shanghai! Just look at that pace!

CATL (Shanghai) factory construction update 8.12 \CATL shanghai\4K # 015

 

[StealthP3D]

Let me say it again, by selling CC's I have been able to accumulate more shares ... contrary to actually loosing any of them.

One person is not statistically significant. You could also point to someone who became rich shorting TSLA, that doesn't mean it has a superior risk/reward ratio. And I'm not saying you can't make money selling covered calls, obviously, plenty of people do. It can also greatly impact your ability to make larger amounts of money by risking your position. That's all I'm saying. If you don't understand this, I'm not going to show you the math. If you can beat the system, more power to you. Just be honest with your boo-boos that cost lost opportunity.

 

[2daMoon]

This ^^^^....I am guilty.

Not me. I'm completely innocent in regard to having had a balanced portfolio.
As some may suspect, I've always been quite unbalanced.

I didn't have any interest in stocks at all prior to getting on board with TSLA. The mandatory 401K was the limit of my exposure, and I hadn't been contributing to it for the quarter century I had been at that employer. I had a general distrust for the market, for the reasons we all still know exist. Instead, I went the precious metals route late last century, which helped me learn about trends, charts, and some of the basics that nearly all such investments share. I was able to borrow 50% against the 401K to buy metals in 2007, which turned out pretty well. Owning metals was more about beating inflation than it was about growing wealth.

Fast-forward to 2018, I'm becoming more dissatisfied with my employer, realize I don't have a good plan for a comfortable retirement, and simultaneously found myself following SpaceX achievements as a pastime. This led to my realization that this Elon guy seems to have his act together on a variety of fronts. I wanted to invest in SpaceX, and came to the realization that Tesla was as close as I could get. So, I began to study it.

Once I looked at the chart for TSLA in late 2019 the alarms went off for me, indicating that anything that had been running this flat for this long while significantly growing the business was eventually going to pop to the upside. I got excited over the prospect and over the next 12 months I slowly went all in for Tesla. My only regret was not knowing some important things that could have gotten this transition completed much quicker. I was skeptical about the market, more than I was of Tesla, and tip-toed in rather than diving in.

Shortly after committing to TSLA I stumbled across Solving the Money Problem, which led to Rob Maurer, and eventually TMC and a bunch of other great sources of news and information on Tesla. This was significant in bolstering my feeling that I was on the right track and made it easy to discount the FUD with minimal effort necessary to find the facts and decide accordingly.

Now, I have since retired in 2020 and have followed a plan that includes living meagerly, borrowing against margin (safely, less than 10%) to supplement social security for expenses while TSLA grows. If things go well I'll be able to begin harvesting from the investment sometime next year.

The craziest thing about this is having told friends to look into it, ask questions, and get on board, without being too pushy. I still think that there is a lot of growth ahead. But, we all know how that goes when we give friends advice.

Thanks to my friends here for all the good info that has helped me to better understand this opportunity and wanted to post up that there are more than one way to skin this cat.

 

[Singuy]

I think Rivian can succeed, and it won't be a flashy CEO as the reason... they simply make a very good product. I've spent time with a R1T now and it is very good. Really does remind me of an early Model S where it isn't perfect. Has some nitpicks and minor quality issues, but the truck is really a phenomenal product. I'd quite easily own one if the Cybertruck wasn't coming out soon.

Rivian has to get their opex in line and find a way to ramp production to an acceptable level... but they have have a long runway to do just that. Longer term, I do think that hurts them as a company and their margins as they don't have to learn to be as lean as possible... but I think the company will succeed longer term. I'm no ready (or that close since signs still aren't there) to invest in them, but I think they can survive.

Not even close. I know this other company that has a great product but did do everything in their power to limit cost 10-20x better than Rivian with complete monopoly in their sector at the time with zero money spent on advertisement and still almost ended in bankruptcy 3 times.

If there's any one takeaway from Tesla's story is just how much of a miracle you need to succeed as new manufacturing company. I feel like the takeaway everyone got instead is...if the company produces a product like Tesla the stock will 100x from IPO. That is totally the opposite lesson to be learned here.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon's essay in China Cyberspace magazine

New Elon Musk essay: Tesla CEO's thoughts on technology and humanity | Teslarati

Full translated text included in article.

 

[betstarship]

Does anyone know of a way to get in on Neuralink as an investment?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sorry if already discussed, but has anyone taken a good look at the solar portion of the IRAct?

Yes it reinstates the 30% tax credit for solar, makes it transferable, and applies it also to standalone battery storage.

It also has additional incremental 10% tax credits for domestically produced solar panels/hardware and another for installations in "legacy energy" zones. A whopping 50% total tax credit, plus any state/local incentives.

I'm gonna dog into this further, but it probably makes sense for Tesla to ramp up the Buffalo Gigafactory on both solar tiles and traditional panels. I have some Panasonic panels from Buffalo and they were a phenomenal product.

Let's just get them to restart. At 40% off, who wouldn't buy a top shelf American panel?

 

[ZsoZso]

What people fail to mention is that to make money selling covered calls requires risking the forced sale of many times the number of shares required to raise the same amount of cash. Stocks are volatile. The fact that you can roll them doesn't diminish the risk because that comes at a cost that cannot be afforded when you are trying to raise money for living expenses.

You don't get something for nothing and investing is all about risk/reward ratio. The fact that something is unlikely does not change the fact that it can happen.

What you are forgetting in your math is that if your covered call is exercised, your are not simply "losing" your shares, you are selling them for the strike price, that was 20% higher than the price on Monday. So you made extra 20% profit in addition to the premium you collected compared to selling. You are advocating selling some shares for living expenses. Well, it is still better to sell them at 21% higher price, which is what you get effectively if your 20% OTM call gets exercised.
Plus, the argument that you can't afford rolling is dumb: you roll for small credit, not for debit.
If you need more money for living expenses then you let 1 of the options exercised and you are still far ahead (+21%) of your suggested scenario.

 

[elasalle]

One person is not statistically significant. You could also point to someone who became rich shorting TSLA, that doesn't mean it has a superior risk/reward ratio. And I'm not saying you can't make money selling covered calls, obviously, plenty of people do. It can also greatly impact your ability to make larger amounts of money by risking your position. That's all I'm saying. If you don't understand this, I'm not going to show you the math. If you can beat the system, more power to you. Just be honest with your boo-boos that cost lost opportunity.

The statistical average return of S&P is 10%. I don't wanna be statistics, I want to be the anomaly.

I have never preached or told others what to do. I am just saying do your own research/diligence and provided myself as an example of guy selling CC's and not loosing shares.

Just remember life is full of risks, being in Stock market is full of risks, not being in stock market is full of risks, HODL is also full of risks, as is selling CC's. So let's not just pick on CC as lost opportunity.
e.g. invested in stock market all life but had to retire in 2008 when market crashed
(Even replying to you is full of risks ) Cheers!!

 

[Nocturnal]

And what people will do, burn their cars? Maybe switch to water or something to run their cars?

I'm in my early 40s so I'm old enough to have seen the pattern. Gas get's cheap, and people rush out to buy gas guzzlers. A few years later, gas gets expensive again and everyone cries and whines about how they couldn't have known it would go up.

Rinse and repeat every 5 years or so. I'd at least like people to plan ahead more than 1 year, or god forbid start planning on an EV purchase.

 

[Singuy]

What you are forgetting in your math is that if your covered call is exercised, your are not simply "losing" your shares, you are selling them for the strike price, that was 20% higher than the price on Monday. So you made extra 20% profit in addition to the premium you collected compared to selling. You are advocating selling some shares for living expenses. Well, it is still better to sell them at 21% higher price, which is what you get effectively if your 20% OTM call gets exercised.
Plus, the argument that you can't afford rolling is dumb: you roll for small credit, not for debit.
If you need more money for living expenses then you let 1 of the options exercised and you are still far ahead (+21%) of your suggested scenario.

For those who are thinking about selling Tesla shares, absolutely sell them by selling covered calls. It's free money..like literally I can't think of any downside if you sell in the money covered calls. You get your share sold at the price you want plus a premium. Why would you not want to take the free premium?

 

[henchman24]

Not even close. I know this other company that has a great product but did do everything in their power to limit cost 10-20x better than Rivian with complete monopoly in their sector at the time with zero money spent on advertisement and still almost ended in bankruptcy 3 times.

Are you saying they won't even be close to survive or ever close to invest in? The former, they have a ton of cash that Tesla never had at their fingertips... and they have hungry big dollar investors ready to dump more if they need. The latter, I can see that. Q2 was better than Q1, but still so far off the mark.