Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

It is an excuse to delay the rating upgrade. More accurately, it was to chill investment interest by signaling the upgrade will not happen anytime soon, not until Tesla has a more diverse offering of models. As if a ratings agency knows how to run a car company better than Elon Musk.

Whenever such an organization makes a decision for obviously wrong reasons, there is generally internal dissent or pushback on the decision within the organization because it makes them look foolish. The internal pressure is probably building for them to upgrade Tesla and the fact that the Tesla Semi is not a light passenger vehicle doesn't really matter, it could give them the excuse they need to finally upgrade Tesla, without looking like they are backing down. As it is, they look increasingly foolish every month they don't upgrade.

Was the same thing when Tesla was being included in the S&P500. S&P published a ridiculous “not yet” blog article.

It is difficult to imagine any other reason for these delays other than large entities who these agencies are beholden to are not positioned appropriately to benefit.

 

[Opus BC fan]

Ladies and gentlemen,
It is time to take your seats.
The show is about to begin...

 

[brantse]

OK, so your point is: TSLA will still appreciate a lot, so it is better to sell some of it, rather than keep it all !?
That makes no sense at all.
He is talking about selling 20% OTM covered calls and 20% OTM puts weekly.
Not wasting money on making bets in the casino, but being the house in the casino.
In the past few years during all the volatility those never went ITM in the week -- thats a statistical fact.
Even if there was a black swan event that would break this statistics, you can always roll the options on Friday before they would get exercised, so you can still easily avoid losing any shares.

Pennies and steam rollers. The point he was making, which is completely valid, is that sudden upward moves can destroy your gains when you've sold calls on your shares. Nobody is saying absolutely don't sell calls, but understand the risks. It's like selling lottery tickets. It works most of the time, but occasionally you end up having to pay out a winning ticket.

 

[Mengy]

Ladies and gentlemen,
It is time to take your seats.
The show is about to begin...

Pre-market sure looks strong today. Most of my watchlist is deep red but TSLA is nicely up and green.

 

[Singuy]

My kids and I did extensive testing (20+ runs) with the latest FSD and have come to conclusion that FSD does NOT hit kids.

We created a child mannequin from my daughters winter outfit and my sons soccer ball.

We had 20+ runs on a dirt road and a paved road with and without lines.

Every run the vehicle either stopped or went around (very slowly). We tested at both 29 and 25 MPH at normal lane widths. We moved the mannequin from the center and to the left and right at small increments. All videos are saved and available to post if needed.

Rest assured that Dan has created a complete and total falsehood. I sincerely hope that all persons who perpetrated this falsehood are brought to justice.

View attachment 841023

One thing I feel Dan have done is made the mannequin child to be very small and low. Based on the video I feel like the child is half the size of yours and perhaps toddler size who wouldn't be able to walk or stand. I have never seen a walking child just few inches taller than the front bumper.

 

[elasalle]

General.
No one talks about CC when SP is heading South. As soon as SP starts to head up, it's like Oh CC's are picking pennies and is risky? Same arguments over and over again.

Let me say it again, by selling CC's I have been able to accumulate more shares ... contrary to actually loosing any of them.

Understand risk, formulate your own approach, don't do copy-cat/greedy trades just because someone else says it's working for them, don't avoid an approach just because someone says it doesn't work.

Take HODL advice on this thread, take options advice on the selling options thread (Those doing/following an approach and actually executing trades based on an approach will have sounder advice than those sitting on ivory chairs doling out advice) research/learn.
(+ Wanna fight in UFC .. learn Muai Thai, Ju Jitsu, wrestling, boxing ..... )
Have fun " Time and Tide wait for no man, or for expiring (options)" cheers!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, the 7-Eastern "Power Rangers" liked what they see:



TSLA performing strongly in early main mkt trading: dragging the other 'Tech' majors higher now too - AAPL and GOOG/L all in the 'green' now.

Possilbly a small 'gap' to fill with TSLA after the Opening today, but I expect if that does happen FOMO will crush that move.

Cheers!

 

[betstarship]

Elon wrote an essay:

New Elon Musk essay: Tesla CEO's thoughts on technology and humanity

A new Elon Musk essay published in China gives a glimpse into the Tesla CEO's thoughts on sustainability, robots, Neuralink, and SpaceX.

www.teslarati.com

Let the man work and get out of his way. <3

 

[StealthP3D]

Why Rivian is still no Ford or Tesla: Morning Brief — Yahoo Finance

What to watch in markets on Monday, August 15, 2022.

apple.news

Hmm. The guy is saying Tesla and Ford succeed because they have flashier CEO, and Rivian fails because it does not!
I would say this is rather shallow thinking. What says you?

Clearly, an auto company needs a flashy CEO to succeed, I mean, look how flashy Henry Ford was wearing his flamboyant and colorful suits and ties, full of bravado, while touring the country holding dog and pony show extravaganzas to promote the Model T. And that's why Elon always wears flashy clothes when conducting official company business. Because he knows the secret to building a successful car company is to be flashy and glamorous in order to associate your products with this. He would never publicly say their product is actually the factory. That's not glamorous and would cause the company to fail. If you want further proof, just look at VW's most successful product ever, the VW Beetle.

I mean, how else are you going to build a successful company if not for flash and glamour?

 

[henchman24]

Why is it that a rating agency would care about what a company is shipping and not just the financials? As cool as it is, semi will be low volume compared to 3/Y. I this something they typically care about? (Sounds more like an excuse to be to delay the upgrade)

It is a delay tactic... but just like when anybody goes to get a mortgage or auto loan, they want to know there is some employment and future income coming in. You could have never missed a payment in your life and paid everything off early... but have no future income and simply can't afford the payment on the 750k house. I think ratings agencies have a concern that a limited number of models have a cap and it is especially a cap when Teslas are as expensive as they are. Eventually that leads to a cap in cash flow that can be made off certain models and as competition comes in, Tesla will lose cash flow. I don't find the concern legitimate and it is stuck in an old, legacy auto way of thinking... but I think that is the very root of the issue. They simply don't believe that Tesla can be this strong of a company with the limited model range. It is wrong.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Each of us has their own situation. My wife and I are in our mid seventies and I finally retired a couple of years ago. After the split and rise into the$700, I decided to sell half our TSLA which would provide us with enough cash for a very generous retirement. When I did so I promised myself to.never look back and say I wish I had done differently. I need to enjoy retirement while I can still be active. Now I can enjoy watching the unsold half go up and down without agonizing over our retirement. I will only add to it when great buying options occur and as long as I feel comfortable with the fundamentals I will not sell it.
I have now had 3 Tesla's an order for a CT and good financial security security thanks to TSLA and investing from my IRA beginning in 2013.

I will only add to it when great buying options occur - So you've been adding no-stop since the last split Got it!

 

[hobbes]

Panasonic has been sending people from Japan to Giga Nevada to increase efficiency with the goal of 10% more production there:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559160646528385025

This is in addition to the new factory to be built in Kansas.

 

[henchman24]

I think Rivian can succeed, and it won't be a flashy CEO as the reason... they simply make a very good product. I've spent time with a R1T now and it is very good. Really does remind me of an early Model S where it isn't perfect. Has some nitpicks and minor quality issues, but the truck is really a phenomenal product. I'd quite easily own one if the Cybertruck wasn't coming out soon.

Rivian has to get their opex in line and find a way to ramp production to an acceptable level... but they have have a long runway to do just that. Longer term, I do think that hurts them as a company and their margins as they don't have to learn to be as lean as possible... but I think the company will succeed longer term. I'm no ready (or that close since signs still aren't there) to invest in them, but I think they can survive.

 

[StealthP3D]

OK, so your point is: TSLA will still appreciate a lot, so it is better to sell some of it, rather than keep it all !?
That makes no sense at all.
He is talking about selling 20% OTM covered calls and 20% OTM puts weekly.
Not wasting money on making bets in the casino, but being the house in the casino.
In the past few years during all the volatility those never went ITM in the week -- thats a statistical fact.
Even if there was a black swan event that would break this statistics, you can always roll the options on Friday before they would get exercised, so you can still easily avoid losing any shares.

What people fail to mention is that to make money selling covered calls requires risking the forced sale of many times the number of shares required to raise the same amount of cash. Stocks are volatile. The fact that you can roll them doesn't diminish the risk because that comes at a cost that cannot be afforded when you are trying to raise money for living expenses.

You don't get something for nothing and investing is all about risk/reward ratio. The fact that something is unlikely does not change the fact that it can happen.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I think a lot of well intentioned people started out with a balanced portfolio containing TSLA, but a split or two here, 10x growth there, and now their portfolio is 95% TSLA

This ^^^^....I am guilty.

 

[Knightshade]

Pennies and steam rollers. The point he was making, which is completely valid, is that sudden upward moves can destroy your gains when you've sold calls on your shares. Nobody is saying absolutely don't sell calls, but understand the risks. It's like selling lottery tickets. It works most of the time, but occasionally you end up having to pay out a winning ticket.

# of times you'd have lost money selling 20% OTM TSLA puts, in the entire history of the company: 0.
(there was only 1 drop of 20% or more, ever, the week of the first covid lockdowns- and it was barely 20% so you'd have basically broken even that week (or still turned a profit with a small roll or just waiting a bit)


As to calls, that # is also 0 if you have even a basic understanding of rolling options (as you can count on your fingers with fingers left over the # of weeks, ever, the stock moved by more than that much on the call side, and never did so so quickly you couldn't have rolled out before going ITM ahead of said gains)



By all means there's lots of ways to take big risks selling puts and calls nearer TM (or overleveraging with tight near TM spreads- or other ways of not understanding what you're doing)- which is why the other thread starts with links to dozens of hours of education on understanding how options work and the strong suggestion you don't do anything before going through that education.


But once you do, selling "safe" comfortably OTM weeklies can provide a reliable additional income stream (or funding to increase your overall TSLA holdings) without significant concern for getting wrecked...(and esp. on the selling calls side, the worst possible outcome if you screw up is just "only making a smaller profit" not actually losing but even that can generally be avoided with timely rolling the very rare times it's in play).

(there's still not 0 risk of course-hence the quote on safe- puts for example would still potentially leave you exposed to the "elon hit by a bus" black swan type events... or some folks just can't stick to a plan and will go all icarus with greed moving too near TM, but that's not a strategy problem that's a personal one)

 

[UkNorthampton]

It is an excuse to delay the rating upgrade. More accurately, it was to chill investment interest by signaling the upgrade will not happen anytime soon, not until Tesla has a more diverse offering of models. As if a ratings agency knows how to run a car company better than Elon Musk.

Whenever such an organization makes a decision for obviously wrong reasons, there is generally internal dissent or pushback on the decision within the organization because it makes them look foolish. The internal pressure is probably building for them to upgrade Tesla and the fact that the Tesla Semi is not a light passenger vehicle doesn't really matter, it could give them the excuse they need to finally upgrade Tesla, without looking like they are backing down. As it is, they look increasingly foolish every month they don't upgrade.

Several of the individuals covering Tesla at the main rating agencies are being called out on Twitter by someone who used to do same/similar job.

Example tweet -

https://twitter.com/x/status/1558463067981131778

In 3 days she will be doing another Youtube collab with @Farzad (hopefully got right handle) + Gary Black (this time). I suspect rating upgrades/excuses/forces of darkness will be discussed.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1559015781429542919

 

[henchman24]

For the most part, you can be really safe selling 20% OTM calls... you might get an instance or two over the course of the year (which is probably on the safe side) where you have to roll a couple times to get out of it... and normally that event is semi predictable. As you creep into 15% and 10%, that is where you can get burned relatively quickly, but the reward is much, much higher. As with any form of trading, it has risks... but 20% out of the money doesn't really have a ton from a standpoint of being called. The main risk there is it tying up shares that could be sold in the meantime at a higher gain... which I doubt many of us here are doing.

 

[The Accountant]

From Elon's essay in China Cyberspace magazine (bold type emphasis added)

Today’s cars are increasingly like smart, web-connected robots on wheels. In fact, in addition to cars, humanoid robots are also becoming a reality, with Tesla launching a general-purpose humanoid robot (Tesla Bot) in 2021. The Tesla Bot is close to the height and weight of an adult, can carry or pick up heavy objects, walk fast in small steps, and the screen on its face is an interactive interface for communication with people. You may wonder why we designed this robot with legs. Because human society is based on the interaction of a bipedal humanoid with two arms and ten fingers. So if we want a robot to adapt to its environment and be able to do what humans do, it has to be roughly the same size, shape, and capabilities as a human.

With Elon being Elon . . .I am not sure what to make of this. Perhaps launching a prototype intended for Tesla's use and not a commercial product yet.
Interested to see what's presented on AI Day2 Sept 30th.

 

[phantasms]

@Knightshade Hi, Icarus here. Quick question. That 20% figure. Is that based off 9:30 open time, 4pm close of previous week, etc? From X to Y has never moved more than 20%. What exactly is X and Y? Much apprecaited!