Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[nursebee]

If you are feeling pain
analyze your acceptance of the group think around here
consider how little you know about the accepted thought leaders here

Bears and negativity are negatively rewarded
shamed or banned
and yet, they have been the only ones correct for months now

only price pays...Brian Shannon

 

[Carl Raymond]

I don't see why there is gloom here. I try to skip all FUD and interpretation, and expectation and just read the actual report and make up my own mind and... I'm pretty happy about how things are going.

"Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year,"

I would kill for that growth in my own company.

"In North America, Model 3 was yet again the best-selling mid-sized premium sedan, selling 60% more units than the runner up. Inventory of Model 3 vehicles in North America remains exceptionally low, reaching about two weeks of supply at the end of Q1, compared to the industry average of 2-3 months. "

Like... come on! This is by far the best positioned car company on the plane.t They do ZERO advertising, are TERRIBLE at refuting FUD, are under huge attack, offer cars in a ludicrously small number of options, and their main model is only LHD and they STILL cannot make the things fast enough to satisfy the queue of buyers.

And oh... this is also a solar and energy storage company, and the expectation is that this finally ramps up this year.
Show me some credible competition for tesla and maybe I'll be concerned, but the competition is laughable.

It goes without saying I'm not selling a single share.

There are always two conversations taking place on this thread. The first is “How are Tesla going? The second is “How is TSLA going?”

I don’t think anybody is overly concerned about Tesla. Lots to be excited about. GF3, semi, Y, HW3, FSD, storage, right hand drive 3, pickup.

The gloom is TSLA, down $20 bucks. Might take a while to recover.

But during that while, the CAGR continues. Every day there is growth. Not always in ways you can see, but the visible construction rate of GF3 is a good metaphor.

Delays in share price growth create a growing disparity between TSLA and Tesla. It just means that when the big realignment bounce comes, it’s bigger.

 

[schonelucht]

but there are a pile of hints that there were a lot of closure/retooling/repair/breakage days. Should have added those hints up?

There were?

 

[Artful Dodger]

So wot, a $20 haircut on the P&D report then? Heh, is it just me, or does that sound not too bad? Kinda FUD-as-usual, given the manufactured 'miss' on S/X production.

Keep in mind, I'm super-long. YMMV.

Meanwhile, Tesla is quietly pumping out more and more less expensive mainstreet Model 3s, navIgating the FUD to become a major manufacturer. I see parallels to another great struggle of the generation before my own:

"Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning." -- Winston Churchill, 1942

"Even so, we ended the quarter with sufficient cash on hand." -- Tesla, 2019​

Secret Master Plan Part Deux? Bring it!

Be well, do good, cheers!

 

[Dan Detweiler]

2 honest questions here...

1) Regarding Model S and X refresh. Are the Model S and X even relevant to the success or failure of the company anymore? Seems like with the advent of the 3 and soon, Y they occupy more and more a small niche market anyway. Would a refresh just be a waste of resources?

2) Would the impact of the delivery numbers been lessened if Tesla did not release production and delivery numbers and just waited for the financial report? With good margins the financials could have been seen as a good thing based on the expansion and development going on.

Dan

 

[KarenRei]

2 honest questions here...

1) Regarding Model S and X refresh. Are the Model S and X even relevant to the success or failure of the company anymore? Seems like with the advent of the 3 and soon, Y they occupy more and more a small niche market anyway. Would a refresh just be a waste of resources?

2) Would the impact of the delivery numbers been lessened if Tesla did not release production and delivery numbers and just waited for the financial report? With good margins the financials could have been seen as a good thing based on the expansion and development going on.

Dan

If they can get more paint capacity, then they're additional sales in different niches. Useful, but not essential.

Not worth robbing high-end 3 production for low-end S+X production, though.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Tesla shares tank after Q1 shipments fall short and the automaker warns on income

Wedbush analyst Dan Ives characterized the miss as bad but not "apocalyptic."

[Dan Ives:] "This was a disappointing performance by Tesla, although the key Model 3 number was within the area code of Street expectations...The overall deliveries missed Street expectations the all-important Model 3 deliveries were above whisper expectations and exceeded 50k this quarter which will be the focus of many bulls on the Street. That said, European and Chinese deliveries hit anticipated delivery logistics and were the main culprit for the overall miss which was disappointing to see and resulted in a soft quarter with profitability in the red for Musk & Co. Importantly, with Model 3 being the linchpin of growth and future success for Tesla and assuming roughly 7k of the in-transit cars are Model 3's in Europe, the overall Model 3 delivery number would have been closer to 57k and exceeded Street expectations. Overall, the Street was expecting an apocalyptic quarter and Model 3 deliveries were better than feared by many with 50k Model 3 vehicles the "line in the sand" although the overall number was clearly rocky and represents an "air pocket" quarter in our opinion."

"We do not find this slowdown in U.S. demand to be totally surprising or alarming," Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi told investors in a research note Friday. He noted that Tesla's most expensive Model 3s accounted for "an extraordinary" 33 percent of all sales of sedans priced between $40,000 and $60,000 in the second half of 2018. The average selling price for a Model 3 sedan, Tesla's most popular vehicle, was $57,000 last year, according to data compiled by FactSet.

 

[Tslynk67]

So...

1. I have a project for the evening - I need to go out and hunt a crow for supper.

2. My approach, of estimating production from paint shop capacity, completely failed. Don't know why. The only upside is that since they've clearly had line downtime, I hope they've been doing every time they had downtimes in 2018, which was upgrading the lines to higher capacity and lower production costs. Extra paint capacity in particular would be greatly welcomed.

3. I stupidly woke up briefly to check the deliveries numbers, and immediately regretted it, as I could hardly sleep all night after that. One of the worst night's sleep of my life. Comparable to, and possibly worse than, a night I spent on the sight of a mountain tethered to a crumbling cliff face that was periodically shedding chunks with a loud crash all night.

Ugh. But, onward.

Ha, I was asleep by 23:00 CET and didn't check when I was up in the night for a pee - to old a wise for that! In fact I never check news, notifications or even my sleep score until after I made the kids' breakfasts, the wife her morning drink, meditated and then grabbed a coffee.

How disciplined is that?

In other news, Fred spinning it that people are waiting for a refresh - which might actually be possible: Tesla Model S and Model X sales crash ahead of anticipated upgrade and refresh (**** Warning Electrek Link ****)

If I were after an SX then I would probably wait too, actually I'd buy a P3D if I didn't have three kids, so probably sums-up a lot of peoples' thinking.

 

[Ellec]

If you are long term long, this report should have no impact. Unless you belive Tesla is in danger of wupcy then just look forward to Pickup GF3 and beyond. Stock will bounce back if Judge rules in favour of Musk

 

[Thekiwi]

2 honest questions here...

1) Regarding Model S and X refresh. Are the Model S and X even relevant to the success or failure of the company anymore? Seems like with the advent of the 3 and soon, Y they occupy more and more a small niche market anyway. Would a refresh just be a waste of resources?

2) Would the impact of the delivery numbers been lessened if Tesla did not release production and delivery numbers and just waited for the financial report? With good margins the financials could have been seen as a good thing based on the expansion and development going on.

Dan

Tesla only have 3 models in production, If they don't have the resources to handle a minor refresh on 2 of them it would be embarrassing.

Lack of Supercharger V3 support is a glaring liability at present - the fact that a $35k model 3 has far better charging tech than a $135k model S/X is just a bananas situation.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Tesla shares tank after Q1 shipments fall short and the automaker warns on income

So, per the above CNBC article I cited just previously, Tesla getting good support from some of the bull analysts. But note the bullet points under the article headline:

• Tesla said on Wednesday that it produced 77,100 vehicles during Q1, consisting of 62,950 Model 3s and 14,150 older models.
• It delivered approximately 63,000, including approximately 50,900 Model 3s and 12,100 older cars.
• Analysts were expecting it to deliver about 76,000 cars.

I even saw another article from StreetInsider (I know, it's a rag), which had gross errors, but it mischaracterized the Model 3 as the "flagship" of Tesla. This is a bit misleading, as is the above "older" descriptive, while not being very kind either. Still, these impressions are not entirely off considering the more tech advanced M3, as echoed by others, including many TMC members here. Musk and Tesla are surely aware of this issue and have a plan, but what that is we do not know.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Lack of Supercharger V3 support is a glaring liability at present - the fact that a $35k model 3 has far better charging tech than a $135k model S/X is just a bananas situation.

Ahaha, you do realize that there are exactly two v3 Supercharger locations in existance right now? And the rollout will take years to complete replacement of the v2 sites? And S/X DC wiring can be upgraded w/o a major refresh when the time comes?

Don't buy into too much of the drama the shortz are pumping. Most of the drop is due to the expiry of the US $7,500 tax credit. It pulled forward most of the demand from 2019Q1 into 2018Q4. Then Tesla was prepared for that, so they suspended one of three shifts on the S/X line, which miraculously cut production by a third.

And the ones they built were of the highest margin variety, after discontinuing the 75D version. So volume may be down, but with higher gross margins, the new mix may have similar gross profit, while freeing up a demand lane for the most profitable M3P versions.

The good news for S/X sales? There are roughly ZERO of them remaining in transit at the end of Q1. If demand was a problem, they'd malinger on Tesla lots getting photobombed by shortie air farce cadets. Instead, they all sold and the $$ is in the bank.

Yeah, it'll be fine. It just takes time, effort, and patience. Executing a multi-year plan here. Be well, do good!

Cheers!

 

[Thekiwi]

Interesting seeing some of the bears reactions, they are actually less jubilant than I expected, seemingly because a lot of the stupider peeps had predictions for Model 3 far below 50k. - so the 50k+ number (+thousands more in transit) is actually a much better Tesla performance than they expected.

Everything is relative I suppose.

=====

Also for perspective - current pre-market stock price of $270.

Just last week,we traded as low as $254.

 

[Pras]

Ha, I was asleep by 23:00 CET and didn't check when I was up in the night for a pee - to old a wise for that! In fact I never check news, notifications or even my sleep score until after I made the kids' breakfasts, the wife her morning drink, meditated and then grabbed a coffee.

How disciplined is that?

In other news, Fred spinning it that people are waiting for a refresh - which might actually be possible: Tesla Model S and Model X sales crash ahead of anticipated upgrade and refresh (**** Warning Electrek Link ****)

If I were after an SX then I would probably wait too, actually I'd buy a P3D if I didn't have three kids, so probably sums-up a lot of peoples' thinking.

I was surprised when people were expecting 20k S/X deliveries. I never saw any count or indicators that sales were healthy. But somehow assumed that the common perception may have something that I missed. If I were in the market for S, I will likely wait for refresh as the car doesn’t justify double the price. So no surprise.

Model 3 was more of a disappointment. I think that they may have slowed down for tooling to adjust for SR+. Small things like smaller battery, lesser speakers, etc. And the reason they didn’t deliver SR is also likely production related. So all in all it is production constrained on model3. Interesting to observe next quarter.

 

[Thekiwi]

Ahaha, you do realize that there are exactly two v3 Supercharger locations in existance right now? And the rollout will take years to complete replacement of the v2 sites? And S/X DC wiring can be upgraded w/o a major refresh when the time comes?

Don't buy into too much of the drama the shortz are pumping. Most of the drop is due to the expiry of the US $7,500 tax credit. It pulled forward most of the demand from 2019Q1 into 2018Q4. Then Tesla was prepared for that, so the suspended one of three shifts on the S/X line, which miraculously cut production by a third.

The good news for S/X sales? There are roughly ZERO in transit at the end of Q1. If demand was a problem, they'd malinger on Tesla lots getting photobombed by shortie air farce cadets.

It'll be fine, it just takes time, effort, and patience. Be well, do good!

Cheers!

I was under the impression existing S/X can not be upgraded for V3 support due to their significantly lower battery cooling capability. Is that an incorrect assumption?

V3 superchargers will be standard going forward, and If I’m buying a new car today (especially a $100k+ vehicle) I for sure want to buy one that can use V3.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Interesting seeing some of the bears reactions, they are actually less jubilant than I expected, seemingly because a lot of the stupider peeps had predictions for Model 3 far below 50k. - so the 50k+ number (+thousands more in transit) is actually a much better Tesla performance than they expected.

Everything is relative I suppose.

=====

Also for perspective - current pre-market stock price of $270.

Just last week,we traded as low as $254.

Yes, Dan Ives (Wedbush) mentioned something similar. Apparently the whisper number was lower than consensus estimates and 50k was the "line in the sand". Even though it came in above whisper, the bears are determined to turn the FUD up to 10 today. We'll see what happens.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

This f*cking company, man. This ****ing company.

Grey hairs, lots of burned cash, I'm out for now … for first time since 2016. This hurts a lot.

What worries me is not today's PD report per se – those "material" problems can be "fixed" starting with Q2 – but rather my realisation how FUD completely undermined Tesla's narrative for far, far too long now. The FUD is well planted in the head of the majority of people by now and you won't be able to get it out of their brain for years and years to come. No matter how good the product is. Now, the PD report will catalyse the FUD machine further.

It's painfully obvious that 95% of media, WS and other wealthy entities want to see Tesla fall, for whatever reason, and I see no hope that they'll let go from their goal anytime soon.

Direct communication via Twitter and funny memes are sadly not enough to revert public's consensus on Tesla; the following might land me quite a few dislikes on here, but what I think Tesla needs more than anything else right now are the most brilliant spin doctors and lawyers they can possibly find.

They totally neglected the public-facing narrative while riding on the wave of hype and underdog-ism. This worked fine for the enthusiasts like us – but we were sold on the grand idea behind Tesla anyway.

But guess what, Tesla, you're now a grown-up company. Act like one. You're now addressing the mainstream. Fight the BS FUD. Denounce, sue FUDsters, pull all the levers if necessary. For Christ's sake, do something.

Again: You can't win if you're not in control of the narrative.

 

[KarenRei]

Direct communication via Twitter and funny memes are sadly not enough to revert public's consensus on Tesla

I fully feel what you're feeling. That said, you need to clarify the word "public" here. Wall Street? Sure. But the general public doesn't give a rat's arse about - nor will they ever see - a delivery report. They see "that cool electric car that X friend/family member/coworker has".

Here's what "the public" that makes up Tesla's market thinks:

(Video from yesterday)

 

[Pras]

This f*cking company, man. This ****ing company.

Grey hairs, lots of burned cash, I'm out for now … for first time since 2016. This hurts a lot.

What worries me is not today's PD report per se – those "material" problems can be "fixed" starting with Q2 – but rather my realisation how FUD completely undermined Tesla's narrative for far, far too long now. The FUD is well planted in the head of the majority of people by now and you won't be able to get it out of their brain for years and years to come. No matter how good the product is. Now, the PD report will catalyse the FUD machine further.

It's painfully obvious that 95% of media, WS and other wealthy entities want to see Tesla fall, for whatever reason, and I see no hope that they'll let go from their goal anytime soon.

Direct communication via Twitter and funny memes are sadly not enough to revert public's consensus on Tesla; the following might land me quite a few dislikes on here, but what I think Tesla needs more than anything else right now are the most brilliant spin doctors and lawyers they can possibly find.

They totally neglected the public-facing narrative while riding on the wave of hype and underdog-ism. This worked fine for the enthusiasts like us – but we were sold on the grand idea behind Tesla anyway.

But guess what, Tesla, you're now a grown-up company. Act like one. You're now addressing the mainstream. Fight the BS FUD. Denounce, sue FUDsters, pull all the levers if necessary. For Christ sake, do something.

Again: You can't win if you're not in control of the narrative.

You can leave and become a victim of FUD. Remember Elon’s missteps have not been the reason why shorts exist today. It gave them fodder but the underlying issue remains. Linnete lopez bob lutz and Chanos existed before the 420 tweet.

As for the demand, and demand fluctuations, this will happen when you have only 3 product portfolio (2 of which are ultra premium cars) and also when Tesla can’t hold large inventories like OEM dealers do (obvious cash issues). Holding inventories in dealership helps OEMs smooth out slow quarters. On top Tesla had tax cliff demand pull and older model S and X.

Safe to assume that the cars delivered during the Christmas week would otherwise been deivered in Jan.

 

[T@oo]

This f*cking company, man. This ****ing company.

Grey hairs, lots of burned cash, I'm out for now … for first time since 2016. This hurts a lot.

What worries me is not today's PD report per se – those "material" problems can be "fixed" starting with Q2 – but rather my realisation how FUD completely undermined Tesla's narrative for far, far too long now. The FUD is well planted in the head of the majority of people by now and you won't be able to get it out of their brain for years and years to come. No matter how good the product is. Now, the PD report will catalyse the FUD machine further.

It's painfully obvious that 95% of media, WS and other wealthy entities want to see Tesla fall, for whatever reason, and I see no hope that they'll let go from their goal anytime soon.

Direct communication via Twitter and funny memes are sadly not enough to revert public's consensus on Tesla; the following might land me quite a few dislikes on here, but what I think Tesla needs more than anything else right now are the most brilliant spin doctors and lawyers they can possibly find.

They totally neglected the public-facing narrative while riding on the wave of hype and underdog-ism. This worked fine for the enthusiasts like us – but we were sold on the grand idea behind Tesla anyway.

But guess what, Tesla, you're now a grown-up company. Act like one. You're now addressing the mainstream. Fight the BS FUD. Denounce, sue FUDsters, pull all the levers if necessary. For Christ's sake, do something.

Again: You can't win if you're not in control of the narrative.

Nearly word for word the stuff that I put in the commentary field of the cancelation of my reservation today. Get you ass moving and educate the non-geeks. Not that I expect them to act on it. Just needed to vent. Oh, and of course I'll order a Model 3 through my business. The cancelation was my privat account.