Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

I have issue with this Twitter account, in terms of some of the things he tweets, but this tweet really hits to the point

https://twitter.com/x/status/1561400969799147520

People complaining about 15k FSD (3k price increase) while legacy auto dealership do mark up's that make FSD's price seem like a bargain. The lack of context among some people is funny.

I think the development team is getting a little colored by Silicon Valley wages. Outside of SV $15k is a huge chunk of change… outside of the US at these exchange rates it’s honestly a small fortune. $15k is equal to an entire half year of median compensation in Korea or Italy!

Why would anyone care about how the price of FSD relates to the incomes of other parts of the world? There's plenty of of items that are worth more than a small fortune to other parts of the world. Who cares what FSD price relates to Korea or Italy

Rather silly comparison if ya ask me

 

[EVMeister]

Here's a video that Chuck Cook just posted where the car completes a number of unprotected left turns (FSD Beta v10.69). Whilst not perfect on all attempts, it does impressively well here with manoeuvres that many human drivers would struggle to confidently perform. The new blue creep positioning and median "drivable space" indications are excellent additions.

 

[mongo]

I think the development team is getting a little colored by Silicon Valley wages. Outside of SV $15k is a huge chunk of change… outside of the US at these exchange rates it’s honestly a small fortune. $15k is equal to an entire half year of median compensation in Korea or Italy!

The $15k is also totally optional...
FSD based safety features are standard.

 

[thesmokingman]

FSD is getting close to that tipping point where it can go wide release. And that's the point where it's got real value and imo it has real value. We're just not used to a cost for what it can do because we're not used to being driven by another entity and I'll get back to this point in a second. Also, I'd guess that all the ADAS players are damn jelly right now that Tesla has gotten so close to this point. Witness what O'Dowd has done tripling down on his stance. Why would GHS/O'Dowd partake in such a clearly ill advised attempt at slandering FSD? They see the value and realize they can't beat it. That's what this whole recent anti FSD fiasco is has shown me at least, the other players are on the edge of their seats. The reality is that even if we have not fully compared FSD to its comparable reality which is hiring a driver and all of the complexities involved with contracting a third party, this is the real comparable.

Private personal drivers can run into the $40K on the low end a year. You can have a robot driver for 15K, thought of in this way it's a pretty good deal because you have that driver 24/7/365 for the life of the car.

How Much Does A Personal Driver Cost? - ThePricer Media

Looking to hire a personal driver? Learn about the typical costs, factors that affect pricing, and tips for budgeting in this complete guide.

www.thepricer.org

 

[Ogre]

Lots of quibbles about the $15k pricing. People are missing the point here. Ultimately, FSD is not going to be an ADAS system. It is a driver replacement system. Lots of people look at FSD and they think “I can drive myself for that much money”. The assumption here is that the car will be used in exactly the same way it was previously but with FSD in control. That’s not the goal of FSD.

The goal is to open up new ways to use your car.

• Always have a designated driver.
• My mother’s vision is terrible at night and she is not comfortable driving.
• Play games, watch movies, or work while driving. If you commute long distances this is big.
• Recline your seat back and sleep instead of taking a flight. (Requires waking up to charge once or twice)

As you you get a little closer along the way to Robotaxi, lots more opens up yet.

• (For the cyclists out there) Having a Sag vehicle that meets you every 5-10 miles along the way.
• Through hikers could have a support vehicle.
• Kayakers and cyclists could have a shuttle vehicle to drive to the top and meet them at the end of the route.
• Dropping off and picking up the kids from school.

I don’t recommend running out and buying FSD at $15k in the current state, but in the near future (3-5 years?), it’s going to transform transportation significantly and will seem like a bargain. Even before Robotaxi is fully online.

My big problem with paying for it now is I’m not even sure I’ll own this car by the time the feature matures.

 

[2daMoon]

I disagreed with this POV. I believe it’s akin to Tesla is overpriced at $35/sh, the Model S is vaporware, they’re going to go bankrupt etc…. FSD is overpriced for what it is - driver assist only - it’s vaporware, it’ll take 83 decades until it’s fully functional etc…

Here’s what’s going happen; one day, when it’s least expected, boom! FSD is going to cross that threshold and suddenly be what it’s always intended to be and most of the planet is going to miss out like they missed out getting TSLA at $17/sh at IPO, or have given up at $25/sh and cashed out, or all the other excuses used for not believing and holding (needing cash being the exception) - and be in a state of shock and awe and disbelief.

I understand this disbelief, angst, and the million other thoughts and emotions people have about what’s happening now and going to happen, but it’s all wrong in the same way it was wrong to think the SP has ever reflected the true value of Tesla but for 15 seconds since IPO.

Be prepared to be amazed and don’t say you weren’t warned.

I would be right there with you on this, if, and only if, they sold FSD as a transferable license that could be moved from car to car. Rather than making "owning" it part of a particular VIN.

It seems to me that whatever the subscription price settles at will be fair market value. It will be a constant and not dependent upon keeping the same car for longer than you might otherwise because "it has FSD included" and I paid a LOT for it. I'm all for early-adopters helping fund development and participating in the Beta program. It is amazing watching this unfold and I am grateful for everyone who contributes. But, I've got some German blood that simply wouldn't let me ever opt in on the purchase option and be able to sleep well at night after having done so. The long-term value isn't there, for me, in the purchase option.

The subscription model will hopefully be refined to eventually become a tiered rate that is based more upon usage rather than a flat monthly hit for everyone. This would better fit a wide cross-section of driving styles spanning from once a week to the grocer, to those who commute 300 miles daily to work.

 

[henchman24]

If long-term FSD is fully purchased upfront, how is that accounted when the car is resold or traded-in?

Does the FSD go to the new owner? Can the original owner apply his old FSD purchase to his newer Tesla? Or does the original contract become voided with no compensation?

The value of it really seems to vary... back to Tesla some report getting little or nothing (though I think that is BS). Trading back to dealerships is ~3-4k difference (more realistic for a Tesla trade in). Private party might get you more, but might be catering to a very small segment that actually values it.

With regards to FSD... my understanding is that the license moves with the car as long as it isn't back to Tesla (where they can sell it with or without FSD and they will obviously push with). I've read mixed reports on FSD beta moving with the car... I simply don't know there. I would assume the person would have to opt in and get a new safety score... but I don't know for sure.

At 15k, we are really over a 6 year break even (75 months) and that is before interest. Even if you get 4k back, you're at 4.5 years. The subscription, especially when you can start and stop it as needed, makes a lot more sense right now for most people. Now if you are thinking robotaxi and fleets are in the very near future and you're going to opt in your car, buying makes more sense.

 

[Buckminster]

Chuck gets his name in the release notes

View attachment 843274

The Tesla world is quite small. Outside of the company, TMC is as close to the epicentre as you can get. Greatness has and continues to walk these corridors.

DaveT, Factchecking and others that interact with Elon grew up here.

Naturally, I include myself in this camp, due to my sheer humbleness for one.

 

[Buckminster]

Regarding FSD, jeez - you all need to start thinking like shareholders of a tech growth company. Let those on the other forums moan that it is too expensive rn. Every car that doesn't purchase it now means shareholders* could will make ~$100k down the road.

Note * - last time I checked that included you, you and you!

Oh yeah - Tesla ain't no charity either..

 

[Artful Dodger]

Model 3 - Beta FSD 10.69 - Test Loop 1 - 2022.16.3.0 - 21 Aug 22 | James Lock (1 hr ago)

 

[SOULPEDL]

I’ll take it a little further:

FSD is not complete until I can spend a night a the bar, have the car drive me home, and at no time be in danger of getting a DUI.

$15k is just plain too much. Probably above the point of revenue maximization. They’d probably increase uptake by a larger percentage than a price drop if they did drop prices… His pricing strategy seems to be along the lines of Apple pricing a 2E computer by slightly less than what it would cost a room of dudes with slide rules to do the same task. The whole reason disruptive technologies disrupt is because they can do a task for a fraction of the price.

I'm thinking Tesla has enough of a data stream from the existing >100K FSD users. So $15k could be a qualifier for the scientific pioneers, along with an industry message that it's coming along well. Even at 100K x $15K, it's only $1.5B assuming everyone bought it (vs leased). This is not the prize from what I see. I've never turned it down as I always viewed it as a critical component of my investment.

No illusion here on the challenges ahead, and too soon to know on this release, but this looks like some smoke coming from the bull's nostrils before charging. I'm waiting for the hoof to scratch next.

 

[2daMoon]

Regarding FSD, jeez - you all need to start thinking like shareholders of a tech growth company. Let those on the other forums moan that it is too expensive rn. Every car that doesn't purchase it now means shareholders* could make ~$100k down the road.

Note * - last time I checked that included you, you and you!

Oh yeah - Tesla ain't no charity either..

I did try to graciously encourage others to buy FSD while simultaneously mentioning my likely only ever being a subscriber.

 

[Dave EV]

I don’t recommend running out and buying FSD at $15k in the current state, but in the near future (3-5 years?), it’s going to transform transportation significantly and will seem like a bargain. Even before Robotaxi is fully online.

At $15k, yes, you're probably right. But I fully expect Tesla to continue to increase prices as they continue to hit milestones in capability.

I think the beef that most people have is with early adopters who have paid but received little to nothing for their money. This is where most people start arguing for the ability to transfer the FSD license, which, IMO I think makes sense.

 

[Artful Dodger]

$15k . . . I have mixed feelings about this.

How Much is Tesla FSD Worth? Elon Musk just raised the price to $15,000... for now. | James Stephenson (1 hr ago)

 

[Ogre]

I disagreed with this POV. I believe it’s akin to Tesla is overpriced at $35/sh, the Model S is vaporware, they’re going to go bankrupt etc…. FSD is overpriced for what it is - driver assist only - it’s vaporware, it’ll take 83 decades until it’s fully functional etc…

Here’s what’s going happen; one day, when it’s least expected, boom! FSD is going to cross that threshold and suddenly be what it’s always intended to be and most of the planet is going to miss out like they missed out getting TSLA at $17/sh at IPO, or have given up at $25/sh and cashed out, or all the other excuses used for not believing and holding (needing cash being the exception) - and be in a state of shock and awe and disbelief.

I understand this disbelief, angst, and the million other thoughts and emotions people have about what’s happening now and going to happen, but it’s all wrong in the same way it was wrong to think the SP has ever reflected the true value of Tesla but for 15 seconds since IPO.

Be prepared to be amazed and don’t say you weren’t warned.

And when this happens, the price will jump to $20k or maybe $25k, or perhaps will switch to subscription only. And then people will be like "Damn, I should have bought when it was $12k - $15k when I bought my car".

I didn't buy it when I bought my car... I'd far rather have that $10k invested in TSLA in the mean time. But when it matures and I'm able to have my truck meet me at the bottom of the hill, it will unlock enough shareholder value I won't care.

 

[KBF]

Tesla Owners Silicon Valley with Sandy Munro- yesterday:

Interesting talk about hairpin motors at the end (for Cybertruck) - I'm not familiar, but it sounds like from my brief research (this site seemed helpful) that one big disadvantage so far is mass production (as well as 'increase in loss', high requirements for copper wire, and difficult design) - if anyone can figure that out, it's Tesla. Sounds like the advantages are impressive: greater power:volume, cheaper/fewer materials, better temperature performance, and lower EM noise.

The other interesting thing at the end was Sandy's comments about solar paint and the Aptera. AFAIK there are ~3 kinds of solar paint being developed (RMIT's solar paint hydrogen generating charge from water vapour, U of Toronto's quantum dot solar cells, and U of Scheffield's perovskite). It's my understanding that none of those are really efficient enough to use commercially (yet). The other issue for my with solar ON cars is that my car spends a lot of time in my garage. Someday if that tech gets efficient/cheap enough it makes sense.

Interesting that Munro is now hired by Rivian to improve their manufacturing efficiency - I hope for the sake of EV competition they can make some gains, because it's bad right now...

As for TSLA - it is nice to hear that he still thinks its the #1 manufacturer - he claims Tesla's ADAS is 10 years ahead of everyone else and they're maintaining the tech lead. (Just need to get the Cybertruck to market!!) it sounds like he thinks/hopes Tesla will release a $25k car in the future - at least he sees the possibility/capability.

 

[2daMoon]

As for the part-time Robotaxi owner who let their car make money while they aren't using it, I expect that anyone without FSD (owned or subscribed) would still be able to lend their vehicle into the system. Only, their profits would be reduced to account for Robotaxi using a service which they aren't providing along with their vehicle.

All Tesla vehicles have FSD, it is only a matter of whether or not it is enabled. This is bullish, right?

 

[ZachF]

And when this happens, the price will jump to $20k or maybe $25k, or perhaps will switch to subscription only. And then people will be like "Damn, I should have bought when it was $12k - $15k when I bought my car".

I didn't buy it when I bought my car... I'd far rather have that $10k invested in TSLA in the mean time. But when it matures and I'm able to have my truck meet me at the bottom of the hill, it will unlock enough shareholder value I won't care.

I guarantee $25k is past the point of maximum revenue generation.

I do think it should be pushed to subscription.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

Lots of quibbles about the $15k pricing. People are missing the point here. Ultimately, FSD is not going to be an ADAS system. It is a driver replacement system. Lots of people look at FSD and they think “I can drive myself for that much money”. The assumption here is that the car will be used in exactly the same way it was previously but with FSD in control. That’s not the goal of FSD.

The goal is to open up new ways to use your car.

• Always have a designated driver.
• My mother’s vision is terrible at night and she is not comfortable driving.
• Play games, watch movies, or work while driving. If you commute long distances this is big.
• Recline your seat back and sleep instead of taking a flight. (Requires waking up to charge once or twice)

I have zero interest in FSD until it legally can do the things you mentioned. I'm fine with built in autopilot for road trips.

So for people like me, the question is whether to buy it now, or wait until all those things are possible but by then it costs $20-25K or more.

 

[Ogre]

I would be right there with you on this, if, and only if, they sold FSD as a transferable license that could be moved from car to car. Rather than making "owning" it part of a particular VIN.

At $15k, yes, you're probably right. But I fully expect Tesla to continue to increase prices as they continue to hit milestones in capability.

I think the beef that most people have is with early adopters who have paid but received little to nothing for their money. This is where most people start arguing for the ability to transfer the FSD license, which, IMO I think makes sense.

The expectation that FSD should transfer indefinitely is unrealistic and inconsistent with the way software is sold. Software is not a physical thing which is complete and then free forever. The idea that you can buy it and get free updates forever transferring it from car to car doesn't work.

Tesla is constantly updating and upgrading FSD they need a way of limiting that upgrade cycle. For most software this is captured with limited lifetime hardware which supports it. When you bought Windows 3.1, you didn't expect to get Windows 11 for free did you?

I do agree that some early adopters got a bit of the short end on this and would love to see Tesla throw down some discounts on FSD when it's mature to reward them. But commensurate with what they spent. For example: Someone who paid $6,000 for FSD on a car where the lease expired might get a $3,000 credit towards the final version at some future date.

If you bought a car with FSD 2-3 years ago for $6,000 there is a solid chance you'll see that returned to you in your resale value as the price of FSD continues to climb.