Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

The stock price is tanking because there are roughly 7000 Model 3s in inventory that Tesla can't sell.

Here comes a short troll.

Reported.

There should definitely be a rule that new members can't post in this forum. Give them a month's wait time.

 

[KarenRei]

Here comes a short troll.

 

[heltok]

Deliveries and production was very much near our predictions and we are bulls:
Tesla Production & Delivery Estimates

Lol @ factset analysts saying this was a miss...

 

[BaneBeater]

Um not following. They produced 61k and delivered 63k.

Add up lifetime production / deliveries.

 

[humbaba]

Remember, if Tesla is 10% down at any point compared to close on Monday, the uptick rule kicks in.

I just saw that hit on Market Watch...

 

[EVNow]

Now just below $300. I don't think that's the low for today.

 

[NicoV]

Remember, if Tesla is 10% down at any point compared to close on Monday, the uptick rule kicks in.

Done. Is that also today, or just tomorrow?

 

[uselesslogin]

If demand does decline in the US and Tesla can't get EU homologation, the negative working capital becomes a huge problem.

Is there a single reliable source out there that shows any evidence that Tesla would fail to get EU homologation if they haven't already? This is a made-up issue from what I can tell - so seriously, can you post me a source?

 

[Tslynk67]

Shorty Air-Force trying to trigger stop-losses at sub 300?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Risk is not popular. Tesla has apparently been deemed risky. Free money for you.

Shopping for cheap Feb15 340 calls.

 

[KarenRei]

Hilarious, IMHO. Deliveries and production at the levels expected by superbulls. Numbers so high that the shorts consider them to be evidence of fraud. But it's still "a miss".

 

[JRP3]

I keep lowering my price but not hitting the buy order yet, watching and waiting for now.

 

[Johnny Ma]

I knew Q4 ER was what's really needed to move the SP in the proper direction, but I didn't expect a repeat of Q3 drop after P&D. You have you have brain damage to view the Q4 P&D filing as anything other than very solid, at a minimum.

 

[uselesslogin]

Done. Is that also today, or just tomorrow?

It should have just kicked in then and it would be for today and tomorrow.

 

[humbaba]

Done. Is that also today, or just tomorrow?

Through to end of next trading day.

Uptick Rule

 

[ZsoZso]

The stock price is tanking because there are roughly 7000 Model 3s in inventory that Tesla can't sell.

The difference between Model 3s produced and Model 3s delivered is just over 8000, but only 1000 were "in transit."

That means Tesla has 7000 Model 3s in inventory that they haven't been able to sell. That goes against the Model of "every car produced already has a buyer."

Furthermore, Tesla hasn't given any guidance on what to expect for 2019.

If demand does decline in the US and Tesla can't get EU homologation, the negative working capital becomes a huge problem.

Is that you, mmd ? Posting under a brand new handle, because you lost your bet of Leaf outselling Model3 in 2018 ?
If not, then you are a very lame (mathematically challenged 61k - 63k = 8k ???) new troll...

 

[avoigt]

Great numbers across the board.

• Production as well as delivery numbers are just great and clearly better than expectations
• 2018 is a great success with an unprecedented growth rate
• Price cuts in the US only prove that Tesla is profitable now
• With Q3 and Q4 profit Tesla kept the promise which is support for a good Q1
• Low inventory supports healthy demand in the US, price cuts keep TCO almost the same
• S und X demand continues on the plan and capped by cell production, supply constrained
• Financial stability and independence from raising money is achieved
• Tesla is moving closer to more conservative investors, funds and the S&P inclusion
• Continouity in results is a strong sign of stability and good management

Market:

• As in quarters before we see a "sell on good news" which is usually temporary
• As usual some media post wrong, misleading and fraudulent reports with "alternative facts"

Forward looking:

• Everything positive and according to the master plan
• Shorts lost their last argumentation of "Q3 a one time wonder"
• Misleading longs is now very difficult for shorts and bears
• All numbers provided should and will lead to even stronger profits and cash flow than in Q3
• Q1 - Q3 should be a slam dunk for Tesla now as Europe and later China will kick the accelerator

Negatives:

• none

Conclusion:

If you sell now that you are either dump, dumper or dumpest!

Or as I would express it: "someone else just earned the right to own your money...."

 

[Cherry Wine]

Come on, you know things like oil and electricity consumption are much less price elastic.

Tesla is just like any other car company in that regard. Consumers are still price sensitive, albeit at higher levels if profit margin.

The market will still be scared about how Tesla will handle the rest of the $3750 change in the future while maintaining healthy margins.

You are right that they have many demand levers, but the market doesn't like uncertainty.

I agree - this is less about $2000 less now and more about $4000 less (presumed) per car at the expiration of the overall tax credit. (Or the ~$400M per quarter at current production levels that represents.)

Worth noting this is US vehicles only, though. I think that finer point may be getting lost.

At any rate, I think the panic in the market is losing sight of production efficiency gains offsetting the price drops, but that’s to be expected from the market frankly.

 

[printf42]

Another way to see the price cut:
It could be Tesla is confident the credit will be back, anyone remember what happened when Tesla cut price in China due to tariffs?

Oh, btw, seems we are going to have upticks rule kicking in, will be interesting to see.

 

[uselesslogin]

OK, I made a small bet on a weekly now based on the uptick rule being hit.