Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

It should have just kicked in then and it would be for today and tomorrow.

Currently just following Nasdaq. So may be the rule has kicked in.

 

[JRP3]

Can't believe how much Munster is trashing this result as a huge miss

 

[tinm]

You are right that they have many demand levers, but the market doesn't like uncertainty.

That’s the crazy thing about the market: they don’t like uncertainty but they seem to love ignorance.

 

[KarenRei]

Can't believe how much Munster is trashing this result as a huge miss

It's rather 1984ish, isn't it?

"We've always been at war with Eastasia..."
"The Model 3 deliveries target for Q4 has always been 64,9k..."

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Fantastic result, congrats Tesla! You did a bit better than I expected, and that's a welcome change.

Market will come to terms with numbers eventually, and figure out they're great.

 

[bhtooefr]

Well, if the market's gonna do that, sure, fine, I'll buy another and average down, especially in the face of the uptick rule...

 

[Yuri_G]

The FactSet analyst estimate is completely opaque and is exactly what the SEC should be investigating with regard to TSLA. This is the type of thing that Wall St gets away with consistently and the regulators turn a blind eye to. I would guess they wait for the numbers to be released and then add a thousand or so to create a "miss".

 

[Drax7]

The fact that model 3 production is now above 6000 per week in a steady state mode such
That total production exceeded 60,000 for the qtr is an important confirmation.

At that rate, total 2019 production including s plus x should exceed 400,000


Price action wise, if we trade and close above the opening price
We will be rejecting the break down .

 

[Tslynk67]

I know you folks like a bit of Option Sniper: Option_Sniper on Twitter

 

[uselesslogin]

Fantastic result, congrats Tesla! You did a bit better than I expected, and that's a welcome change.

Market will come to terms with numbers eventually, and figure out they're great.

Yeah, I would really like the Tesla employees to be able to celebrate with a rallying stock price as well but they should be incredibly proud of what they are doing. They are changing the world before our very eyes and it is just getting started.

 

[nursebee]

4858 per week model 3
Assuming (lowball) that avg price 3 50K, s/x 70K, sales in excess of 5B in the quarter
Lots of cash/profit to build with, invest, pay debt.
Happy long ignoring first reaction.

 

[shlokavica22]

OK, I made a small bet on a weekly now based on the uptick rule being hit.

I also waited for the rule to kick in. However I added to my Jan'20 leap positions. The IV for the weeklies jumped too much for me.

 

[loco]

I have to say that the Troy sheet estimate got me a little uncomfortable in the last days of 2018. I'm happy that he was off but not happy that we lost a reliable source of production numbers.

 

[AudubonB]

Note to self:

• Remind forum members, in the 48 or so hours prior, to post Wall St estimates of:
  • Quarterly production & deliveries
  • Quarterly earnings
• Better yet, appoint certain prominent poster(s) to do so
  • I think I'll appoint.....YOU

 

[EVNow]

The FactSet analyst estimate is completely opaque and is exactly what the SEC should be investigating with regard to TSLA. This is the type of thing that Wall St gets away with consistently and the regulators turn a blind eye to. I would guess they wait for the numbers to be released and then add a thousand or so to create a "miss".

May be worth spending some time figuring this out. Is there a contact to ask for explanation ? Otherwise report to SEC.

Does anyone have a screenshot from earlier ?

 

[SebastianR]

On a very different note: I like and appreciate the work @Troy is doing. And yet I'm super glad these numbers didn't happen. We would be down even further...

Troy Teslike on Twitter

So I guess for Q1 we need to find new ways to estimate P&D numbers?

EDIT: @loco beat me to it - cheers!

 

[winfield100]

Yeah, I was disappointed with the twitter exchange that led to the 5000 USD refunds. I am a bit conflicted as I qualify for the refund and am now considering taking it....just because so many others already have. Never wanted it, but why should I pass on it at this point? Planning on giving back to Tesla anyway...

$5000 divided by, the 'present stock price' = around another 15 or so shares......... that could be taken out of circulation..........

 

[EVNow]

I have to say that the Troy sheet estimate got me a little uncomfortable in the last days of 2018. I'm happy that he was off but not happy that we lost a reliable source of production numbers.

We should thank him - he created enough uncertainty to prevent some of us from buying weeklies

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla could be a good LT investment, but can we agree that WS pinned this in a trading range of $250-390? We should’ve at least seen the 400s and with a lot less volatility. There’s just too much money to be made swinging this stock in such a reliable trading range, I don’t think Wall Street would give that up

 

[X Fan]

Very strong production and deliveries report from Tesla.

This takes my Q4 forecasts to:
Revenue: +5.2% QoQ to $7,178m. Gross Profit: +11.4% QoQ to $1,697m Net Income: +50% QoQ to $382m.

The $2k price cut will be covered by production efficiencies, new module lines, economies of scale and price cuts from Panasonic. I think gross profit per MR and LR AWD is likely to increase in 1Q19 (over 4Q18) despite the price cuts.

+1....market may hammer stock today but once results are in I expect great results which will drive SP higher....this is just speed bump.