Even with Elon unloading shares for tax reasons in Q4 of 2021 + the market peaking and down 10-15%, TSLA was still primed and actively releasing the spring back at the beginning of April.
It took macro's having the worst 1st half ever + Elon buying Twitter + Elon have to unload shares TWICE for Twitter buyout + Shanghai being shut down for 6-7 weeks because of Covid to hold back the spring.
That's a ****load of bad things all happening at the exact time to hold back the breakout that was clearly starting back at the beginning of April. There's no way any of us could have seen that combination of things coming.
What you can't do is look at the past 7 months of trading, say "Well the stock hasn't done anything for 7 months, it probably gets held down for the next 7 months". It doesn't work that way because you're leaving out the context. That perfect storm of negative headwinds won't be there going forward. Yes there could be unforeseen negative headwinds in the next year, but they won't be the same headwinds as the past 7 months. And in fact, there could be no headwinds because any improvement in supply chains, inflation, fed policy, will then switch from headwind to tailwind.
You also have headwinds that will naturally turn into tailwinds in Tesla's growth numbers for Q1 and Q2 of 2023. Meaning, the Shanghai covid shutdowns affected production in both Q1 and Q2 of this year and thus earnings were impacted. That was headwind that we're now past........Now when we get to Q1 and Q2 2023, the growth % numbers for revenue and earnings growth will appear even more amazing and thus act as tailwinds.