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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I'm a bit concerned about the lack of bickering today, clearly there's a long way still to drop.

It is quite odd. This thread should be absolute chaos today.

I think our Bollinger bickering bands are contracting. And BV(bickering volatility) is at a 6 month low. Bullish???
 
Every1 is nice and courteous when they are poor :)

Bickering is more profound when folks are flush with cash ;) Every1 thinks they are market geniuses ;) and everyone else is just stupid :)
I mean what's there to bicker about right now?

We all have come to accept that the macro market is going to chop between the high's it set 2 weeks ago and the June lows. We know the Wall St media machine is going to run with the Fed rate fear negative until Aug CPI is out. And we know there's no Tesla specific data between now and Oct 1st. So nothing left to do but sit and twiddle our thumbs and wonder how low hedgies get everything until that Aug CPI print.

For us TSLA investors, the real fireworks don't start till end of Sept (AI day, P/D, Earnings, Twitter trial)
 
You also have headwinds that will naturally turn into tailwinds in Tesla's growth numbers for Q1 and Q2 of 2023. Meaning, the Shanghai covid shutdowns affected production in both Q1 and Q2 of this year and thus earnings were impacted. That was headwind that we're now past........Now when we get to Q1 and Q2 2023, the growth % numbers for revenue and earnings growth will appear even more amazing and thus act as tailwinds.

In an ideal world and market, yes. However, this is not an ideal world nor an ideal market.

Still, I hope you are correct and TSLA soars by the end of this year and into next year. I just don't think it will, despite the positives which soon should be working in our favor. I think market forces coupled with MM's will keep us suppressed for quite some time yet. I'd love it if I am wrong of course! :D
 
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These new manufacturing production credits remind me of 2019 when it was revealed that Tesla was selling $3B in tax credits to Fiat Chrysler. The media barely mentioned it, the analysts didn't change their earnings estimates, the stock didn't react at all, and then everyone was shocked when Tesla blew away earnings estimates for the next year and TSLA soared. It's happening again.
 
In an ideal world and market, yes. However, this is not an ideal world nor an ideal market.

Still, I hope you are correct and TSLA soars by the end of this year and into next year. I just don't think it will, despite the positives which soon should be working in our favor. I think market forces coupled with MM's will keep us suppressed for quite some time yet. I'd love it if I am wrong of course! :D
Just remember, the average length of a bear market is about 290 days. Considering where this bear market started, that takes us right into Oct/Nov of this year. I would be a lot more pessimistic about the overall market if we weren't seeing signs everywhere of inflation not just trending lower, but about to start dipping in a major way.

I think Tesla will print GAAP earnings of $3 EPS for Q3/Q4 combined (this is post split adjusted numbers). Even at a share price of $420/share after Q4's earnings, TSLA's TTM P/E would STILL be lower than it is today (TTM P/E of 91 to be exact).

And if TSLA does recognize FSD deferred revenue in Q4 along with tax allowance and Tesla starting a stock buyback, you could see the mother of all rallies in Q1 of 2023.
 
Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin said Tuesday recent data is "consistent" with an economy that is not in a recession.

"A month or two ago, the debate was whether we were in a recession or not, I don't think that's the debate today," Barkin told Yahoo Finance Live in an exclusive interview. "The job market is still very tight.
 
Even with Elon unloading shares for tax reasons in Q4 of 2021 + the market peaking and down 10-15%, TSLA was still primed and actively releasing the spring back at the beginning of April.

It took macro's having the worst 1st half ever + Elon buying Twitter + Elon have to unload shares TWICE for Twitter buyout + Shanghai being shut down for 6-7 weeks because of Covid to hold back the spring.

That's a ****load of bad things all happening at the exact time to hold back the breakout that was clearly starting back at the beginning of April. There's no way any of us could have seen that combination of things coming.

What you can't do is look at the past 7 months of trading, say "Well the stock hasn't done anything for 7 months, it probably gets held down for the next 7 months". It doesn't work that way because you're leaving out the context. That perfect storm of negative headwinds won't be there going forward. Yes there could be unforeseen negative headwinds in the next year, but they won't be the same headwinds as the past 7 months. And in fact, there could be no headwinds because any improvement in supply chains, inflation, fed policy, will then switch from headwind to tailwind.

You also have headwinds that will naturally turn into tailwinds in Tesla's growth numbers for Q1 and Q2 of 2023. Meaning, the Shanghai covid shutdowns affected production in both Q1 and Q2 of this year and thus earnings were impacted. That was headwind that we're now past........Now when we get to Q1 and Q2 2023, the growth % numbers for revenue and earnings growth will appear even more amazing and thus act as tailwinds.
Wait - that sounded positive. 😳
 
Battery manufacturing at Fremont!


Hm, this is confusing. The actual filing pictured in the article says "new battery manufacturing equipment line", not battery manufacturing line. To me this sounds they will be building the machine that builds the batteries there, not the batteries themselves, right? When I look at the elaborate foundations for the cell building at Giga Berlin I don´t think they could just add a cell production line to some existing building.

tesla-battery-cell-manufacturing-filing-fremont.jpg