Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

Battery manufacturing at Fremont!

Tesla files to build EV batteries on new production lines at Fremont Factory

Tesla filed to build new battery cell manufacturing equipment on the second floor the Fremont Factory's main assembly building, filings show.

www.teslarati.com

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Q4: In Search of the Immaculate Quarter
In baseball, an immaculate inning occurs when a pitcher strikes out all three batters he faces in one inning, using the minimum possible number of pitches (nine). Since 1880, this has only occurred 109 times. Details here if interested.

Tesla has regularly delivered record-breaking quarters on deliveries, revenues and profits and the results have been impressive; yet I would say we have not yet seen the Immaculate Quarter . . . where everything goes right. This coming quarter (Q3), we will see record breaking results again across multiple metrics but the quarter lost production for line upgrades at Shanghai and Berlin and I still expect negative margins in Austin.

This coming Q4 may be our first Immaculate Quarter (of hopefully many to come) and I believe it will be the inflection point where Tesla starts its ascent on the earnings S curve as Berlin and Austin start to scale (another post to come on this).

View attachment 847022

Berlin turned a positive margin in Q2.

Austin is well ahead of Berlin's production rates for Q2. Plus Austin is selling Mid Range Y (4680 variant), which has zero lag in terms of price hikes flowing through to current orders. As in, there's no 6-8 month delay between the current price for orders and the price for the orders that Tesla is actively delivering too. This should help gross margins as well.

 

[mongo]

Saw this chart on Twitter and it cracked me up.

Chart has nothing to do with "Investment Grade" upgrade and everything to do with iPhone going nuclear.

That is only one of the three charts posted.
This is the investment grade/ fund purchasing related one.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564577718955454464

 

[Lance Boyle]

It seems like this rabbit hole is going deeper than even many on this board thought.

With the data I've seen and my past experience, I'd wager that we'll see some big things transpire over a short period of time. SEC fraud is totally in the cards now and DOJ involvement is near certainty. I don't see the purchase going through at this point at any price.

Also, I hope more whistleblowers step forward...
From my time at big tech companies, if certain folks are at the right place at the right time they can see the badness happening and they start to flee. Does anyone remember the Dell SEC investigation? I was young enough to be naive to see this bigger issue playing out when I left in 06, but business and engineering minded enough to know that Kevin was doing really weird things to the company. I had no idea how bad, but it ruined the company, for me personally, in a matter of 2 quarters.

Think Elon Is Going After The SEC For Not Doing Their Job Next?

 

[woodisgood]

Big sell block of nearly 500k caused the drop. There goes the strength TSLA had been showing for the morning

Was there some sort of FUD that just came out? TSLA getting hit with repeated large sell orders out of nowhere and it doesn't correlate to the Nasdaq.

It’s possible one of our whales not named Elon is selling some shares.

 

[Singuy]

Verge posted an article about the class action at 12:35pm if that counts for anything

 

[SOULPEDL]

Battery manufacturing at Fremont!

Tesla files to build EV batteries on new production lines at Fremont Factory

Tesla filed to build new battery cell manufacturing equipment on the second floor the Fremont Factory's main assembly building, filings show.

www.teslarati.com

According to Tesla's "Agile" methodology, they should be installing equipment this PM, right?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It’s possible one of our whales not named Elon is selling some shares.

I don’t believe any whale is selling leading into the last month of a quarter that’s going to be record.

More likely this is hedge funds intentionally trying to break the uptrend line in TSLA dating back to June 16th. 275 is pretty much that line. If it’s broken, I’d expect 255 is the next stop. If 255 breaks, then look below, TSLA's going back to the June lows.

Edit: And there it goes. Just took a 350k sell block to do it. See you guys at 255

 

[cliff harris]

a similar 3-year repurchase cycle

Ha! In our dreams! I've been trying to upgrade my model S to a model Y for years now. I'd love to buy Teslas more often, but every time I order one, the backlog seems to conspire to make me wait a year at least!
(Red performance RHD model Y, so rare as can be...)

 

[Knightshade]

It’s possible one of our whales not named Elon is selling some shares.

There was considerably speculation right after the shareholder meeting that Ellison, no longer a board member, would be doing that in the near future FWIW

 

[MABMAB]

That is only one of the three charts posted.
This is the investment grade/ fund purchasing related one.
View attachment 847031

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564577718955454464

Really gots ta keep charts of non tesla stuff out of here, especially since this one has ZERO reference to apple in the frame of reference.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The Fed's weapon is fear, as it should be. The market seems less scared by the day, and that's the problem. The Fed needs commodity traders to truly believe the end is nigh so that inflation can come down.

Ideally they'd like the dam to break before the have to actually do something in the September meeting that would bring about some serious pain.

If the message gets across before mid-September and inflation clearly comes down, then they can maybe hike rates .50. If not.......then they're implying it's .75 with the threat of more to come. IMO they need to actually stick to this plan and crush the world if that's what it takes to break these commodity traders.

The @StarFoxisDown! scenario of the Fed not needing to actually murder us all seems most likely. .50 raise in mid-September and it's off to the races.

Me personally......I think hedge funds will front run TSLA's reaction to such a scenario. There's just too much profit coming in 3Q for them to wait. Someone's gonna jump, then they all jump. I obviously thought it would've happened long before now.

Fronting TSLA Q3 pop should happen about a month out from end of Q3, I think, so any day now…

 

[elasalle]

Calendar.

China production numbers ... 1 week?
(Macro)CPI numbers --------------- 2 weeks
AI Day ---------------- 4 weeks
Q3 delivery #'s --------------5 weeks

 

[SOULPEDL]

According to Tesla's "Agile" methodology, they should be installing equipment this PM, right?

Crazy as that sounded, it could even be sandbagging. If a "permit" is simply a green light for them to turn on the utilities, we could be days away from new, limited battery production with equipment already running. Then again, a Module isn't a complete Line either, but let's hope anyway. (Checks the 2nd story factory windows next flyover, truck movement, staffing...)

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Calendar.

China production numbers ... 1 week
(Macro)CPI numbers --------------- 2 weeks
AI Day ---------------- 4 weeks
Q3 delivery #'s --------------5 weeks

TSLA share price in 5 weeks right before Q3 P/D numbers come out? $255

Not trying to be intentionally debbie downer right now but the overall market seems intent on setting a double bottom before the Aug CPI numbers come out and unless Aug Shanghai come in as a blowout (85k+), I don't seem it holding TSLA up. I doubt TSLA tests the actual June lows, probbably something like 10-15% higher than the June lows.

I'd love to be wrong, but there seems little in the way of Wall St pushing TSLA and the overall market where it wants to go to maximize the upside in the rally from the Aug CPI data

 

[ZsoZso]

This is one looong MMD ! When will it be over ?
It is past my lunch-time...

 

[elasalle]

TSLA share price in 5 weeks right bofore Q3 P/D numbers come out? $255

Not trying to be intentionally debbie downer right now but the overall market seems intent on setting a double bottom before the Aug CPI numbers come out and unless Aug Shanghai come in as a blowout (85k+), I don't seem it holding TSLA up. I doubt TSLA tests the actual June lows, probbably something like 10-15% higher than the June lows.

I'd love to be wrong, but there seems little in the way of Wall St pushing TSLA and the overall market where it wants to go to maximize the upside in the rally from the Aug CPI data

Can't predict where market is heading , but if it does keep going down ... I will keep converting shares to leaps
Let them play short term games, so I can implement a long term strategy cheers!!

MM have been warned

 

[M|S|M MYP]

I thought:

Lots of Job openings + Consumer Confidence = good for markets....or is it the other way around?

 

[The Accountant]

I thought:

Lots of Job openings + Consumer Confidence = good for markets....or is it the other way around?

Many don't want to believe in a soft landing or mild recession. They have been coming on TV preaching about the coming doom (and in some cases places bets on it) and by god they will get it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Calendar.

China production numbers ... 1 week?
(Macro)CPI numbers --------------- 2 weeks
AI Day ---------------- 4 weeks
Q3 delivery #'s --------------5 weeks

https://twitter.com/x/status/1564580350864793600

If these numbers are close to being accurate, probably 32-34k for local sales. I could definitely see 50k in exports for the month.

So....I can see 80k total for Aug. Possibly surprise of 85k. Which I think would at least help set a floor for the stock even if the macro's go on to test June lows.