Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Man I love watching TSLA start the morning off green verses the macros only to slowly bleed away any outperform and end up underperforming by the end of the day .

Man, you can pick a Bottom! Nailed it to within 2 min:

TSLA vastly outperformed QQQ (macros) on the day:

TSLA also had huge Closing Cross volume today (2.8M shares) on unremarkable total daily volume. I conclude the 'bigs' are back from the Hamptons, and selling 'Tech' and buying TSLA. Q3 P&D in a few weeks...

CHAIRS!

 

[ZachF]

Wen Sparta

 

[Drumheller]

Wen Sparta

Just before tree fiddy on the way to 500

 

[Curt Renz]

TD Ameritrade - this afternoon:

 

[jw934]

What's with these plus/minus $15 crazy swing in after hours?

Most likely exercising of calls or puts. Not sure.

 

[betstarship]

Giddy up, let's go Q3/Q4

 

[Nocturnal]

Agree analysts EPS estimates are low, however with Russia's continued invasion of Ukraine, China threats to Taiwan's sovereignty, and an unprecedented global warming crises (1 in a 1000 year floods, fires, heat waves), all affecting trade routes, manufacturing supply chains, chip shortages, inflation, and weaponizing oil and gas, I'll cut them some slack for being cautious. Very few analysts forecast for more than one year. In my books any analysis forecast for higher share price than we are trading today works fine my me. We can't expect analysts to truly understand Tesla except a few like Ron Baron. And we should be grateful that TMC gives us the information edge over these professionals. Knowledge is power. What we do with this knowledge is up to us.

There is always some BS to panic about though. China vs US war has been an issue for decades, and has been far worse than it currently is in the past.

IMO it's about incentives. If they nail an optimistic price target they will only get slightly more credit than if they drastically underestimate so why take the risk on the off chance they are the bullish outlier and wind up looking stupid if it underperforms?

 

[SmokyPeat]

TD Ameritrade - this afternoon:

You've gotta love Ross Gerber. At some point I plan to buy some Gerber-Kawasaki just out of principle.

 

[2daMoon]

Wen Sparta

Too weaks?

 

[betstarship]

Well, I did some digging for personal and general purposes:

2-4Mb per cell (guess in real-time)
/ 140 bytes per SMS ( SMS Character Limit )

= ~21,430 messages (in real-time?)

Some examples of SMS and IoT devices:

IoT Devices and SMS Notifications - Blog | TheTexting

IoT devices can now be integrated with SMS notifications to enhance performance and communication. Businesses and industries can make use of this innovation in technology to communicate not only with humans but with devices as well.

www.thetexting.com

More:

SMS marketing services & texting platform | SimpleTexting

Use the text messaging service 17,000+ businesses trust. Send SMS marketing campaigns, receive texts, and message one-on-one.

simpletexting.com

Did some more digging:

Text messages sent in the U.S. 2021 | Statista

In 2021, mobile users in the United States sent roughly 2 trillion SMS or MMS messages.

www.statista.com

2.2T SMS messages annually => 70M SMS messages per second to handle the U.S.'s SMS needs (if taking the 2020 number)

I'm assuming a node is one satellite, but please let me know if that's incorrect. If that's accurate, then I'm assuming we'll have 4,000+ operating satellites in orbit by end of 2023.

21k SMS msgs per satellite / sec * 4000 satellites = 84M per sec.

 

[StealthP3D]

As you suggest, in a pinch, Tesla could engage in a price war and wipe the floor with the rest of the industry. That is neither in their best interests, nor is it consistent with their mission at the current point, so they haven’t yet.

This is wrong. The reason Tesla has not engaged in a price war yet is not because it's inconsistent with their mission, it's because Tesla could lower their prices to cost, and besides resulting in less revenue, it would be meaningless. Tesla still doesn't have enough production to meet demand. Lowering prices would not apply ANY pressure to other competitors, EV or ICE, because it wouldn't displace any more sales. Price wars are only for when production exceeds demand. And, when that finally happens for Tesla, you can bet your toothbrush Tesla will lower prices to continue to ensure they sell every car they make.

Tesla will not lower prices with the goal of putting other EV makers out of business (or anyone for that matter), it's goal is to continue to displace ICE vehicles. If other car makers are not able to compete effectively in ever increasing volumes, while Tesla continues to increase production, they will eventually go under, right along with the ICE makers who fail to transition on time. Tesla is a machine with a purpose and likely an unstoppable one, when it follows its stated mission, it has no say whether other EV makers go out of business or not, that is entirely up to each individual EV maker and the value they are able to offer the car buying public.

Price wars are stupid. Making things so efficiently that they can offer the consumer the most value is smart. The difference between the two is a difference of intention. Tesla will bankrupt many companies, none of them will be intentional, they will all be a result of Tesla following their mission statement as effectively as they can.

 

[Artful Dodger]

For me, the thing that doesn't make sense is that many funds cannot invest in stock unless they are above a certain rating, this is where the system breaks.

Indeed. The SEC is moving to limit the influence of these ratings 'agencies' which are in fact private for-profit corporations:

[PDF] Removal of References to Credit Ratings From Regulation M (Mar 23, 2022) www.sec.gov › rules › proposed

https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2022/34-94499.pdf

More background here:

• Frequently Asked Questions About Regulation M - SEC.gov www.sec.gov › interps › legal › mrslb9
• SEC Proposes to Remove Credit Ratings References [PDF]... - JD Supra (Apr 5, 2022)

Cheers!

 

[Captkerosene]

The Apple Car is damned near irrelevant to Tesla shareholders.

The only reason it's brought up so frequently is as part of the "Competition is coming" narrative. But that argument is irrelevant.

Tesla is big enough and strong enough, they will succeed or fail in this industry based on the merits of their products and the skill of their engineers. People always talk about competition, but ultimately if your company makes a fantastic product, it will survive regardless of competition. This is ironically how Apple survived so long and expanded in spite of massive competition.

It is entirely possible Apple partners with someone to make their cars and eventually becomes successful in this space. It's going to take them 5+ years for Apple + an ideal partner to get to the scale Tesla is today and in that time Tesla will be 7x bigger than it is now.

So long as Tesla continues on their current course, they are immune to Apple. They might lose some customers, but there is still a massive untapped market. So long as Tesla continues to make the efficient cars most people love, they make them efficiently, and they retain their Supercharger network, nobody will slow demand for Tesla cars.

The ones who should be worried about Apple are GM and Ford. Any new entrant is going to be taking market share away from them. These guys should be **begging** to partner with Apple to take over their car computers and help release the Apple car of the future.

I care about Apple a lot - their software not their cars. Tesla may top out at about 20% of the 100 MM/year vehicle market. I want Tesla, not Apple selling software/insurance for the other 80MM cars.

I'm going to need a lot of good news over the next 18 months to cash in on the bag of options I just bought.

 

[ZeApelido]

My language arts teachers never thought I was that creative. Pfft

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567290564906987521

 

[willow_hiller]

My language arts teachers never thought I was that creative. Pfft

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567290564906987521

Wow, that's incredible that's the worst clip O'Dowd's crack team could find after 17 days of sifting through FSD 10.69 videos.

 

[Usain]

My language arts teachers never thought I was that creative. Pfft

https://twitter.com/x/status/1567290564906987521

Look at the visualization. FSD was already taking corrective action before the driver could react.

You could argue that FSD should have stayed further to the right going into the curve. But humans make that mistake too. And in this case, FSD did better than a human at avoiding a collision.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Sheesh. When someone runs in a 10k race that must be quite troubling for you.

Fellow cyclist here. I know what you meant. . Have a 300K coming up in a month.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The tail don't wag the dog; now it doesn't even have one:

"Previously disclosed, on November 10, 2021, Lordstown Motors and Foxconn entered into an Asset Purchase Agreement ("APA") providing for the sale of LMC's Lordstown, Ohio vehicle assembly plant to Foxconn for $230 million plus the reimbursement of certain operating and expansion costs."

Foxconn Completes Acquisition of Lordstown Motors Electric Truck | Bloomberg (May 11, 2022)

Lordstown Motors factory sale to Foxconn closes - CNBC (May 11, 2022)

hth.

 

[Knightshade]

Look at the visualization. FSD was already taking corrective action before the driver could react.

You could argue that FSD should have stayed further to the right going into the curve. But humans make that mistake too. And in this case, FSD did better than a human at avoiding a collision.

FWIW 10.69.1.1 crossed the double yellow on a sharpish left near by house that previous versions always stayed on the correct side of the double yellow for (but did the turn in a safe, but jerky, fashion).... .69.1.1 was smooth, but dangerously wrong, in comparison.

I expect with oncoming traffic it may well have mitigated safely, but it was still objectively worse, safety wise, than previous version.

So this might be a stopped clock thing for Dan on which he got lucky.

 

[lafrisbee]

Fellow cyclist here. I know what you meant. . Have a 300K coming up in a month.

I did a 300k once... I am 66. I started riding at 6. it wasn't a big deal. For 60 years I have averaged about 5k.