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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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You know Foxconn owns an EV car factory in the US, right? :)

Yeah, read that some time ago. Thing is....contract manufacturing simple electronics and buying into a failing EV company doesn't make you a major auto manufacturer. Not that they can be underestimated-I expect that in 10 to 20 years they will make significant progress-if they have that time before going under. Tesla demonstrated that it can be done-but they had a decade plus without significant competition to learn what it takes to build autos. And they learned painfully just how difficult it really is to do so cost competitively. Foxconn doesn't have the luxury of time.
 
IMHO ... smart money is buying Rivian. The world will need more than just 1 EV maker and Rivian has a great product. With Apple's $$ and manufacturing experience, Rivian could do very well. Don't get me wrong ... Tesla is the premier company and best in class but they can't make all of the EV's that will be needed.

I'm invested in both ... granted a HUGE portion of the portfolio is Tesla but I've always held a lot of Apple and recently purchased some Rivian ... I feel like I'm positioned pretty well :)
Rivian is not particularly good at manufacturing cars at scale.

Apple outsources most of their manufacturing (and almost never makes big acquisitions). What Apple needs is someone with expertise manufacturing cars (EVs specifically) at scale. Rivian doesn't bring that.

Where is the synergy here?

A partnership with BYD strikes me as far more interesting for Apple.
 
Rivian is not particularly good at manufacturing cars at scale.

Apple outsources most of their manufacturing (and almost never makes big acquisitions). What Apple needs is someone with expertise manufacturing cars (EVs specifically) at scale. Rivian doesn't bring that.

Where is the synergy here?

A partnership with BYD strikes me as far more interesting for Apple.
Valid points. I would argue though, 200+ billion can make a huge difference. Also, while Apple does outsource most of its manufacturing, they still understand large scale manufacturing and logistics better than any company of earth. Finally, the only company that understands how to manufacture EVs to scale is tesla …

Let’s see what happens.
 
And FoxConn has a set of white-label car prototypes they're pitching to people. IMHO, if Apple was really going to do a car, they'd use FoxConn just like they do for everything else -- a proven manufacturing partner. I'm still skeptical.
The fundamental issue (and why we haven't see an Apple/Auto maker partnership announcement) is that everyone on earth knows that the margin will be in the software. Apple obviously wants that, but they've gotten no one to even come close being willing to be "just" the manufacturing partner. They all know Apple's going to take vast majority of the profits.

And we all know Apple is going to greedy and arrogant as hell for a long time about it. It's more likely we see a stalemate between the two sides for a long time until Tesla starts running away from the pack by such a large distance that the two sides are forced to come to a mutual agreement of splitting the software profits.
 
And FoxConn has a set of white-label car prototypes they're pitching to people. IMHO, if Apple was really going to do a car, they'd use FoxConn just like they do for everything else -- a proven manufacturing partner. I'm still skeptical.
This rebranding model has yet to be proven. It doesn't work with batteries given the ludicrous recall costs to LG for ex. Also Foxconn signed a deal with Lordstown to produce commercial vehicles, although I wonder if that deal is still alive given where Lordstown is now.
 
Valid points. I would argue though, 200+ billion can make a huge difference. Also, while Apple does outsource most of its manufacturing, they still understand large scale manufacturing and logistics better than any company of earth. Finally, the only company that understands how to manufacture EVs to scale is tesla …

Let’s see what happens.
Everything about the "Apple should acquire Rivian" narrative strikes me as pure fantasy for Rivian shareholders.

There is almost nothing Rivian brings to the table here for Apple. As an Apple shareholder (my second largest holding) I think this would be a truly horrible use of capital.
 
And FoxConn has a set of white-label car prototypes they're pitching to people. IMHO, if Apple was really going to do a car, they'd use FoxConn just like they do for everything else -- a proven manufacturing partner. I'm still skeptical.
If Foxconn has the manufacturing expertise and already has a car design-what does Apple bring to the party that they can use? They have no engineering expertise in the field, no manufacturing expertise, no relevant sales or support background. Why wouldn't Foxconn just stick their own brand on their car, instead of sharing the profits with Apple? They can always enable either Apple or Google's infotainment interface, which is all I can see Apple contributing. Other than capital-but I expect Foxconn is in pretty good shape in that regard.
 
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IMHO ... smart money is buying Rivian. The world will need more than just 1 EV maker and Rivian has a great product. With Apple's $$ and manufacturing experience, Rivian could do very well. Don't get me wrong ... Tesla is the premier company and best in class but they can't make all of the EV's that will be needed.

I'm invested in both ... granted a HUGE portion of the portfolio is Tesla but I've always held a lot of Apple and recently purchased some Rivian ... I feel like I'm positioned pretty well :)
At a 30b valuation Rivian’s success is already priced in. First they got to mass produce at a profit. They still have a lot to prove and there is a lot of risk there. Prototypes are easy… production at a profit is hard.
 
If Foxconn has the manufacturing expertise and already has a car design-what does Apple bring to the party that they can use? They have no engineering expertise in the field, no manufacturing expertise, no relevant sales or support background. Why wouldn't Foxconn just stick their own brand on their car, instead of sharing the profits with Apple? They can always enable either Apple or Google's infotainment interface, which is all I can see Apple contributing. Other than capital-but I expect Foxconn is in pretty good shape in that regard.
Foxconn doesn't have any expertise in autos. And this whole idea of them being great in phones will somehow translate is insane. We've seen over and over auto manufacturers with a hundred years of expertise having very hard times transitioning to EV.
 
This all seems to be shaping up not unlike the first couple weeks of George Bush jr's term when closed-door energy meetings resulted in a rapid cost escalation of several energy sources...............except now it is on a global scale. And who knew at that time that fracking, and natural gas development, and natural gas use was about to boom conveniently just after the price boomed as well (natural gas was priced well below electricity prior to those meetings, and I was participating in some large facility planning projects in Alaska that were specifically designed around significantly cheaper natural gas at the time). And now the world is trading coal futures like Randolph and Mortimer Duke traded frozen orange juice futures..............and all of those coal and natural gas 'stranded assets' are now worth more than ever before. "Don't overlook coincidence" as the old saying goes. And just a few months ago these same countries were still being criticized for using these energy sources.


Also glad to see some discussion of Peter Zeihan on the board, as much of what he discusses is quite relevant to TSLA and Tesla production. And the transition of energy that we have been witnessing could reveal more than expected in the coming weeks/months according to Peter - to include of course continued massive growth in TX and California renewables (which primes the pump for as much solar and storage that can be implemented at Giga Austin, Freemont, and Lathrop), and some much less pleasant revelations regarding Germany's renewable energy situation (giving some good food for thought for Giga Berlin's situation in the coming months). For me this also reiterates the benefits of making 'renewable energy capacity' a much more significantly weighted criteria in all future GF site selections........................i.e. can Ontario provide a better renewable climate than Berlin? Or should Tesla be looking more towards locations like Austin where solar + storage can significantly shield them from unexpected O&M costs. I found this short video of the current energy situation interesting and informative (Renewables in Germany discussed around the 2:35 mark in the video):

 
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Apple? Rivian? Who cares! We're in a full on @StarFoxisDown! beta reversal. TSLA swimming against the current today and looking ready to blast thru $275 on this third run at it. (just trying to pretend this is something we can get excited about)

Natural gas is plummeting yet again today, down 7.5% today. Brent and WTI continue lower. The inflation narrative is cracking, even as Russia & OPEC double down. Fed meeting Sep 20/21 will be about as pivotal as it gets.
 
If Foxconn has the manufacturing expertise and already has a car design-what does Apple bring to the party that they can use? They have no engineering expertise in the field, no manufacturing expertise, no relevant sales or support background. Why wouldn't Foxconn just stick their own brand on their car, instead of sharing the profits with Apple? They can always enable either Apple or Google's infotainment interface, which is all I can see Apple contributing. Other than capital-but I expect Foxconn is in pretty good shape in that regard.
Apple's big selling point would be integration with their ecosystem I think, like Apple CarPlay but on another level where the car could interface seamlessly with everyone's other Apple stuff. Apple has autonomous car tech out there too, but that's neither here nor there

Would much sooner believe Apple partnering with Hyundai than something like Rivian, I thought the Ioniq 5 interior already looked pretty Apple-y and Hyundai/Kia/Genesis are on a tear right now
 
Irrelevant post coming up... though more relevant than whether or not China and Russia will go to war!!!

There appears to be a spoof "Tesla" youtube channel created, and the only (and first) video created is a copy of some old, multi-hour livestream w/ Cathy Wood, EM and Jack Dorsey as they waffle on about bitcoin. But the title of the video and its thumbnail were changed to the most clickbaity Tesla catnip content you could possibly think up, and I fell for it and started watching. 90,000 other viewers, or that's what it looks like.

I did not know Youtube could be spoofed so easily.

Back to reality...
That's crypto scam. It used to have message with URL posted somewhere in the video stream telling people to send in bitcoin/ethereum to get more back in a "giveaway". Think of it as you give away your crypto to them instead.

Last I saw this kind of scam they have changed it to a QR code on the video instead. I wouldn't recommend scan that code by the way.
 
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Two acquaintances were run down and nearly killed (one eventually committed suicide due to his disabilities from the accident).

This is not funny remotely.
Sorry, didn’t mean to offend.

As a cyclist who has been intentionally sprayed with gravel by pickups going onto the shoulder in front of me, has been coal rolled by them, who has done some long rides—up to 300K—in various places with some unpleasant encounters, and who has had many scares from oblivious motorists including while bicycle commuting across decades (in the Bay Area no less), I intended this as a kind of gallows humor.

At risk of offending further, I’ll share my not entirely tongue-in-cheek warning for would-be bicycle commuters: 10% of the drivers try to be courteous and wind up doing unpredictable things, 80% of drivers are oblivious and dangerous, and 10% of the drivers are actively trying to kill you.

Even with this attitude, I still wound up with one good scare a year and an accident (mostly pratfalls thank goodness) about every five years on average, though these days I’m mainly Zwifting.

YMMV
 
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Apple? Rivian? Who cares! We're in a full on @StarFoxisDown! beta reversal. TSLA swimming against the current today and looking ready to blast thru $275 on this third run at it. (just trying to pretend this is something we can get excited about)

Natural gas is plummeting yet again today, down 7.5% today. Brent and WTI continue lower. The inflation narrative is cracking, even as Russia & OPEC double down. Fed meeting Sep 20/21 will be about as pivotal as it gets.
Eh, sorry but I can't even remotely get excited for an outperformance day on the first day of the week. It just means TSLA is being positioned for options and if you look at options volumes today, it's heavy on the 270 Puts. So I'd wager this is just MM's keep the stock out of reach of that. Plus volume is still weak.

Usually when TSLA's outperformance to start a week is options related, it means that it's going to underperform if the macro's make a rally throughout the week. There's really nothing to get excited about until we see some trends showing continued outperformance ( and most importantly on macro green days).

Just nothing to do but count the days down till Oct 2nd.