Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[unk45]

The report from Lora Kolodny quotes the Tesla VP of Gigafactory Operations, Hrushi Sagar, as saying:



Elon visited Brazil and President Bolsonaro this year on May 20th. The official purpose of the meeting was to discuss the rollout of Starlink to remote jungle communities in Brazil and also monitoring the ecological health of the Amazon rainforest with satellites.

I thought about it and researched some more and now I think Brazil is likely to get a Tesla project announced in the next couple years, as former member jbcarioca suggested in May.

Brazil's Advantages:

• Abundant local and regional supply of critical minerals
  • Nickel, Lithium, Copper
• Mercosur common market membership
  • Free trade and movement between
• Solid supply of high-quality engineers
• Only country in South America that ever has had automotive manufacturing
  • List of Latin American automobile manufacturers - Wikipedia
• Eastward-facing coastline with parts directly on the Equator
  • Optimal for efficient rocket launches because that's where the planet rotates fastest
  • Helps with SpaceX's mission objectives of minimizing fully considered cost per ton to orbit as well as maximizing total cargo capacity to Mars achievable with finite launch capacity
• SpaceX could legally operate in Brazil because it's eligible for American export of defense articles under ITAR (international traffic in arms regulations)
  • SpaceX technology export is governed by ITAR

Brazil has the best nickel reserves in the Western Hemisphere by a wide margin. It has a sixth of the world's total reserves.



Brazil is conveniently right next door to the Lithium Triangle, a region of the Andean high desert salt flats which spans the common border of Bolivia, Argentina & Chile. The Lithium Triangle is by far the greatest lithium deposit on the planet. It holds the majority of the world's lithium reserves and is cheaper to mine and refine than spodumene hard rock ore in places like the USA, Australia and Canada. Maybe Tesla's salt-based clay extraction method for their land in Nevada will be even cheaper, but we don't know yet and it will be a while before Tesla mines substantial amounts of lithium from there. Bolivia doesn't mine much lithium yet because of a mix of factors including having reserves that are more difficult to access and the government corruption and instability. In the long run I think this resource may become available. Argentina and Chile, however, mine a bunch of lithium.



View attachment 850895

Map of the Lithium Triangle within the Arid Diagonal of South America.

Lithium Triangle - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Chile also has an enormous endowment of copper, by far the largest on the planet, and Peru has about a third as much as Chile. Tesla vehicles, solar roof, and batteries all rely on copper for wiring. Chile and Peru have 31% of the world's copper and can easily support a Brazilian Gigafactory.

Profiling the top six countries with the largest nickel reserves in the world

There are an estimated 94 million tonnes of nickel reserves globally, with countries including Indonesia and Cuba home to a significant share

www.nsenergybusiness.com

Top six countries with the largest lithium reserves in the world

Lithium is growing in demand, but many of the countries with the largest-known reserves have yet to successfully commercialise the resource at scale.

www.nsenergybusiness.com

Global copper reserves by country 2023 | Statista

Chile has the largest copper reserves in the world, followed by Peru. Both countries combined held copper reserves of 310 million metric tons as of 2023.

www.statista.com

No doubt there will be ‘something Tesla and/or SpaceX in Brazil. What that something is to be is a very different question. Nobody who knows is talking. However, Elon shows up from time to time, attending weddings, visiting various business and political leaders. Both Vale and Embraer have allegory met with him recently. Certainly raw materials are a big part of it; Vale is already a supplier (from Canada source) and Brazil aerospace industry is well-developed with São José dos Campos, SP the epicenter of the industry with the engineers centering there.

We should be reticent to prognosticate. OTOH I REALLY want to replace my silly XC40 Recharge with a Model Y.

 

[Chenkers]

View attachment 848212

Can anyone work out what's going on with all of the dirt being spread in the rear of the car loading logistics lot? They're trucking in various clean fill, some in bags and spreading it out over the concrete that was previously loading parking. It doesn't seem to make much sense from a structural/building perspective and I can't see anywhere on site they're digging dirt to move here. It could signal the start of new building activity here or nearby but I can't work out what yet.

It turns out they are actually turning part of the Shanghai logistics lot into a new turfed area. In Jason Yang's latest video you can see workers laying out turf over the newly spread dirt. It would seem that Tesla China's logistics are now running so smoothly that they can afford to re-green part of the logistics lot and still make record deliveries.

 

[SmokyPeat]

The report from Lora Kolodny quotes the Tesla VP of Gigafactory Operations, Hrushi Sagar, as saying:



Elon visited Brazil and President Bolsonaro this year on May 20th. The official purpose of the meeting was to discuss the rollout of Starlink to remote jungle communities in Brazil and also monitoring the ecological health of the Amazon rainforest with satellites.

I thought about it and researched some more and now I think Brazil is likely to get a Tesla project announced in the next couple years, as former member jbcarioca suggested in May.

Brazil's Advantages:

• Abundant local and regional supply of critical minerals
  • Nickel, Lithium, Copper
• Mercosur common market membership
  • Free trade and movement between
• Solid supply of high-quality engineers
• Only country in South America that ever has had automotive manufacturing
  • List of Latin American automobile manufacturers - Wikipedia
• Eastward-facing coastline with parts directly on the Equator
  • Optimal for efficient rocket launches because that's where the planet rotates fastest
  • Helps with SpaceX's mission objectives of minimizing fully considered cost per ton to orbit as well as maximizing total cargo capacity to Mars achievable with finite launch capacity
• SpaceX could legally operate in Brazil because it's eligible for American export of defense articles under ITAR (international traffic in arms regulations)
  • SpaceX technology export is governed by ITAR
    

Brazil has the best nickel reserves in the Western Hemisphere by a wide margin. It has a sixth of the world's total reserves.



Brazil is conveniently right next door to the Lithium Triangle, a region of the Andean high desert salt flats which spans the common border of Bolivia, Argentina & Chile. The Lithium Triangle is by far the greatest lithium deposit on the planet. It holds the majority of the world's lithium reserves and is cheaper to mine and refine than spodumene hard rock ore in places like the USA, Australia and Canada. Maybe Tesla's salt-based clay extraction method for their land in Nevada will be even cheaper, but we don't know yet and it will be a while before Tesla mines substantial amounts of lithium from there. Bolivia doesn't mine much lithium yet because of a mix of factors including having reserves that are more difficult to access and the government corruption and instability. In the long run I think this resource may become available. Argentina and Chile, however, mine a bunch of lithium.



View attachment 850895

Map of the Lithium Triangle within the Arid Diagonal of South America.

Lithium Triangle - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Chile also has an enormous endowment of copper, by far the largest on the planet, and Peru has about a third as much as Chile. Tesla vehicles, solar roof, and batteries all rely on copper for wiring. Chile and Peru have 31% of the world's copper and can easily support a Brazilian Gigafactory.

Profiling the top six countries with the largest nickel reserves in the world

There are an estimated 94 million tonnes of nickel reserves globally, with countries including Indonesia and Cuba home to a significant share

www.nsenergybusiness.com

Top six countries with the largest lithium reserves in the world

Lithium is growing in demand, but many of the countries with the largest-known reserves have yet to successfully commercialise the resource at scale.

www.nsenergybusiness.com

Global copper reserves by country 2023 | Statista

Chile has the largest copper reserves in the world, followed by Peru. Both countries combined held copper reserves of 310 million metric tons as of 2023.

www.statista.com

I didn't realize Chile was so rich in copper deposits. I've been investing a little in copper the last couple of years, so I probably should have. I was aware the region is very rich in Lithium salts. Should be interesting to watch the economic development in Chile/Argentina/Bolivia over the coming decades.

 

[JRP3]

It would seem that Tesla China's logistics are now running so smoothly that they can afford to re-green part of the logistics lot and still make record deliveries.

It also seems as if they don't expect much future expansion which seems odd.

 

[Singuy]

It turns out they are actually turning part of the Shanghai logistics lot into a new turfed area. In Jason Yang's latest video you can see workers laying out turf over the newly spread dirt. It would seem that Tesla China's logistics are now running so smoothly that they can afford to re-green part of the logistics lot and still make record deliveries.

View attachment 850987

Uhh. Definitely not the first thing that comes to mind when a company shrinks their logistic lot. "We are going to spend all this additional money to turf an expensive concrete pad to show off how efficient we are at logistics". This sounds like an echo chamber statement.

 

[elasalle]

It also seems as if they don't expect much future expansion which seems odd.

or they have decided on another China GF and don't need to install tents in this one

 

[JRP3]

or they have decided on another China GF and don't need to install tents in this one

So this factory is already maxed out in production volume?

 

[Singuy]

My guess is a regulatory thing but that's only if it's somewhere else other than China because the government there usually doesn't care about green space.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Uhh. Definitely not the first thing that comes to mind when a company shrinks their logistic lot. "We are going to spend all this additional money to turf an expensive concrete pad to show off how efficient we are at logistics". This sounds like an echo chamber statement.

I guess they just decided they paved a bit too much of paradise, haha. I wouldn't read too much into it.

 

[jkirkwood001]

It also seems as if they don't expect much future expansion which seems odd.

Yeah because then they'd need an environmental review to cut the grass..? Oh, no wait, this isn't Brandenburg.

 

[JRP3]

Yeah because then they'd need an environmental review to cut the grass..?

They trucked in tons of dirt to cover up a parking lot at a car factory.

 

[jerry33]

It also seems as if they don't expect much future expansion which seems odd.

Test area for Chinese Cybertruck.

 

[Singuy]

I'm pretty sure Shanghai is using the shipping dock as their new logistic lot as their production is high enough for continuous loading even for 3rd month of the Q. This is unwinding the wave as a portion goes to China and the other portion goes around the world.

 

[Christine69420]

It turns out they are actually turning part of the Shanghai logistics lot into a new turfed area. In Jason Yang's latest video you can see workers laying out turf over the newly spread dirt. It would seem that Tesla China's logistics are now running so smoothly that they can afford to re-green part of the logistics lot and still make record deliveries.

Perhaps they have some kind of event planned and want to look nice?

Anyway they have room enough on the lot to the east to make more parking spaces if they like.

 

[Speedr117]

It turns out they are actually turning part of the Shanghai logistics lot into a new turfed area. In Jason Yang's latest video you can see workers laying out turf over the newly spread dirt. It would seem that Tesla China's logistics are now running so smoothly that they can afford to re-green part of the logistics lot and still make record deliveries.

View attachment 850987

Sadly, my guess is Zero-Covid. They're expecting another lock down, and having the factory in a bubble, it would make sense to have green space within the factory walls for employees to walk on, play sports, etc. Also, Elon liked a tweet that said "force majuere is a b*tch" (of course, that could be something to do with the Twitter acquisition instead).

 

[Singuy]

Perhaps they have some kind of event planned and want to look nice?

Anyway they have room enough on the lot to the east to make more parking spaces if they like.

Could be a celebration/party planned. This is the most logical explanation.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

We spent our Friday watching paint dry, and our Saturday watching grass grow. It's grass!

 

[Singuy]

I know the employees could care less about green grass. I do know that when important people inspect or visit a master planned area, we see companies create green spaces. My parents in Beijing lived in the middle of a new master planned area and they see people planting grass and just leave it for destruction the minute these people leave. You rarely see green grass in China because people don't care and it's off putting for people like me who sees green grass everywhere being a Floridian. I asked my parents if green grass is ever planted and they say yes, only when there's a visit from the government.

 

[lascavarian]

Playing with numbers:

I keep records by hand on Tesla stock. My records regarding the previous split show that the stock was volatile on the day (8/31/20) the split was enacted. By the next day (9/01/20) this stock calmed a bit and closed at 475 and slumped after that.

It took the split stock more than 2.5 full months to digest the split and finally close above 475. On 11/18/20 it finally closed at 486 and then to 499 by the next trading day.

Today's smaller split was more concentrated in it's recovery post split.

The second day (8/26/22) post split the stock settled and closed at 288.

This time the stock rallied much more quickly and digested the split in only 13 calendar days closing 9/8/99 at 289 and then on to 299 the next day.

Numbers are only numbers and there are so many variables and macros but my view is that this might be bullish.

 

[JRP3]

Could be a celebration/party planned. This is the most logical explanation.

Trucking in tons of dirt and planting grass is not logical for a party.

Edit:

I do know that when important people inspect or visit a master planned area, we see companies create green spaces.

That's a plausible explanation, though still an irrational act.