Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

Pretty big AH drop. Don’t see anything particular. Market seems to have dipped a little AH I guess

Packages are now being transported more efficiently by sending them down Niagara Falls.

FedEx guidance sending us right back into the big bad bear market.

 

[Discoducky]

In case anyone saw this article about Cruise making inference (in-car) chips...

It is absolutely ridiculous to do this *unless* you buy/make >10 million due to the high cost *AND* you already have an algorithm to burn into the silicon (aka a design for your trained AI autonomous model).

I don't think Cruise has either of those constraints. Time will tell and we'll see how this story develops, but I'm in the camp of super duper skeptical. This announcement sounds more like the usual hyper-hyperbole PR.

 

[Electroman]

I still predict Dec 2023 will be last month that a new ICE vehicle will be it’s own collateral for any new buyer who has to finance the purchase.

Or the minimum down payment will be much higher like 40% of the price of the vehicle

 

[Tommy O]

In case anyone saw this article about Cruise making inference (in-car) chips...

Yep. But don’t you think they have to do this to have a chance?

Edit: I kind of like cruise. Their engineers post on twitter and they seem pretty honest. It seems crazy ambitious for them to be doing chip design, but I like that they’re doing it.

 

[thesmokingman]

In case anyone saw this article about Cruise making inference (in-car) chips...

It is absolutely ridiculous to do this *unless* you buy/make >10 million due to the high cost *AND* you already have an algorithm to burn into the silicon (aka a design for your trained AI autonomous model).

I don't think Cruise has either of those constraints. Time will tell and we'll see how this story develops, but I'm in the camp of super duper skeptical. This announcement sounds more like the usual hyper-hyperbole PR.

They are so far behind the curve. But you know, we're going to see a lot more companies start to merge with the path Tesla has taken. I wonder who they will bring in, there's only a handful of brains with this level of experience in the world. And Jim Keller is already busy at the head of Tenstorrent.

 

[Discoducky]

Yep. But don’t you think they have to do this to have a chance?

Not really, it is just being a 'fast follower'. I'd assert they have no idea what they are doing.

The cost savings are immaterial to the other manufacturing inefficiencies and innovation-less strategies. Sorry to be blunt.

 

[Discoducky]

I wonder who they will bring in, there's only a handful of brains with this level of experience in the world. And Jim Keller is already busy at the head of Tenstorrent.

Exactly, Jim is amazing and there is only one of him. Maybe get someone from Google TPUs. Gee, who could that be?

 

[Tommy O]

Not really, it is just being a 'fast follower'. I'd assert they have no idea what they are doing.

That makes sense. You just changed my opinion.

 

[StapleGun]

Our contribution to Q3 earnings:

We picked up our Model Y on Sept 30, 2021. Just got notification for annual Premium Connectivity subscription, which of course we accepted. So under ASC 606 revenue recognition, that's $99/365 * 1 day, or $0.03, recognized in Q3. You're welcome.

You're off by an order of magnitude. That's actually $0.27 recognized in Q3. @TheAccountant may need to update his models.

 

[Andy O]

I have no doubt it doesn’t work well in some environments.

Like parts of my city? I am waiting for Tesla to send my city an assessment telling them that based on their FSD data, they are the worst on the continent for road design and marking.

 

[WattsHappening]

You're off by an order of magnitude. That's actually $0.27 recognized in Q3. @TheAccountant may need to update his models.

Oh snap, you're right! Thanks for the correction. I now feel 10x better about our contribution to Q3 earnings.

 

[Tommy O]

Like parts of my city? I am waiting for Tesla to send my city an assessment telling them that based on their FSD data, they are the worst on the continent for road design and marking.

Yes.

It was terrible for me (sort of). Then it got a lot better. Then it got worse. Then it got so amazingly better with 10.69 that I’m flabbergasted.

 

[Tommy O]

Someone very smart who maybe posts here said i should apply some bit of valuation to robotaxis for tesla.

Like the gigantic jerk that I am, I did add in a robotaxi valuation. I multiplied
It by zero, which was my future expectation for that part of the company.

I had a good laugh about it. Me being a jerk and all.

My multiple is now greater than 0.

 

[slacker775]

Oh snap, you're right! Thanks for the correction. I now feel 10x better about our contribution to Q3 earnings.

Shouldn’t you be feeling 9X better?

 

[Singuy]

All this hoopla about self driving robotaxis being the nirvana of insane margins and revenue is all a farce. I said it before and I'll say it again. The robotaxi market today is a money loser and will be until the public gains the trust of the system. IMO the only way to do this is for people to have autonomous driving in their car so reliable that they begin to sleep in their own cars while driving. Only until then they will consider not purchasing their next car and just strictly use the robotaxi service.

I still believe only Tesla is doing it right by giving the masses this technology so people can slowly get use to them and gain that trust that's badly needed to generate revenue. This will take years to change people's psychology and many years in a Tesla or Tesla like system once it reaches at least level 3 in which Tesla is comfortable enough to take responsibility for any crash.

Survey shows Americans don't trust self-driving cars. They also don't know you can't buy one.

A study showed 76 percent of Americans feel less safe in a self-driving car, while 73 percent feel less safe knowing other cars may be self-driving.

www.teslarati.com

 

[Tommy O]

All this hoopla about self driving robotaxis being the nirvana of insane margins and revenue is all a farce. I said it before and I'll say it again. The robotaxi market today is a money loser and will be until the public gains the trust of the system. IMO the only way to do this is for people to have autonomous driving in their car so reliable that they begin to sleep in their own cars while driving. Only until then they will consider not purchasing their next car and just strictly use the robotaxi service.

What?

And also

What?

Model it out. At worst, the net income curve is going to look like a rainbow and we’re sitting at the left side. The pot of gold is on the right

 

[MC3OZ]

All this hoopla about self driving robotaxis being the nirvana of insane margins and revenue is all a farce. I said it before and I'll say it again. The robotaxi market today is a money loser and will be until the public gains the trust of the system. IMO the only way to do this is for people to have autonomous driving in their car so reliable that they begin to sleep in their own cars while driving. Only until then they will consider not purchasing their next car and just strictly use the robotaxi service.

I still believe only Tesla is doing it right by giving the masses this technology so people can slowly get use to them and gain that trust that's badly needed to generate revenue. This will take years to change people's psychology and many years in a Tesla or Tesla like system once it reaches at least level 3 in which Tesla is comfortable enough to take responsibility for any crash.

Survey shows Americans don't trust self-driving cars. They also don't know you can't buy one.

A study showed 76 percent of Americans feel less safe in a self-driving car, while 73 percent feel less safe knowing other cars may be self-driving.

www.teslarati.com

FSD working well somewhere is a likely step along the road to working well everywhere.

There is no Robotaxi business in a city until FSD works well in that city.

People's psychology is entirely dependent on how well the system works, first impressions count, and one bad trip can cancel out 20 good trips, So caution is needed, no need to rush to market before the system is fully ready.

IMO the closest parallel is plane travel, when planes were regularly crashing, it was too early to launch a system for the general public. Priori to flying in a plane, and before air travel was common, many people would have had reservations about flying. When people haven't experienced something, they tend to have a very conservative risk adverse opinion about the unknown.

These days air travel is a big business, but go back in time far enough, I'm sure we can find comments saying that the public will never embrace it.

As things stand, a regulator will need a lot of convincing and the first Robotaxi business might still be a few years away. But once a Robotaxi business works in one city, it is a matter of time before it works everywhere.

If it can be done, Tesla is the company mostly likely to do it, and up to 5 years before any competitor has a similar product.

EDIT: In most urban environments the 15-25 year old age group are likely early adopters of Robotaxis, many will not have a licence, a lot will not own a car, a few will own a reliable car. They are likely to be partying late at night and consuming alcohol, a Tesla Robotaxi will be safer than an inexperienced driver after a few drinks late at night. In a low speed accident in a Tesla, the risk of a serious injury is very low, the safety of the car is a factor.

 

[Singuy]

FSD working well somewhere is a likely step along the road to working well everywhere.

There is no Robotaxi business in a city until FSD works well in that city.

People's psychology is entirely dependent on how well the system works, first impressions count, and one bad trip can cancel out 20 good trips, So caution is needed, no need to rush to market before the system is fully ready.

IMO the closest parallel is plane travel, when planes were regularly crashing, it was too early to launch a system for the general public. Priori to flying in a plane, and before air travel was common, many people would have had reservations about flying. When people haven't experienced something, they tend to have a very conservative risk adverse opinion about the unknown.

These days air travel is a big business, but go back in time far enough, I'm sure we can find comments saying that the public will never embrace it.

As things stand, a regulator will need a lot of convincing and the first Robotaxi business might still be a few years away. But once a Robotaxi business works in one city, it is a matter of time before it works everywhere.

If it can be done, Tesla is the company mostly likely to do it, and up to 5 years before any competitor has a similar product.

EDIT: In most urban environments the 15-25 year old age group are likely early adopters of Robotaxis, many will not have a licence, a lot will not own a car, a few will own a reliable car. They are likely to be partying late at night and consuming alcohol, a Tesla Robotaxi will be safer than an inexperienced driver after a few drinks late at night. In a low speed accident in a Tesla, the risk of a serious injury is very low, the safety of the car is a factor.

Note I didn't say people will not embrace robotaxi. My question is will people embrace it enough and fast enough to generate revenue and positive margins before these companies call it quit?

Air travel solved huge problems such as traveling long distances like across water without taking a few months and risk of dying at sea. People were willing to take the risk. Are people eager to take the risk in a robotaxi so they can relax for 20 minutes beside driving on their own? Sure..oh wait uber already provide this service. So now its matter of price and where the risk and reward cross.

It's an uphill battle and these companies chasing robotaxis like it's the next California gold rush will just accelerate their bankruptcy. The operating cost is currently astronomical!

 

[Paul_SF]

Let me tell you I give rides and let people drive my Y and I don’t even have FSD Beta, and EVERYONE is completely speechless. You guys seem to forget 90something% of the people didn’t even rode in a Tesla or drove one. And when they see the car driving and stopping at traffic lights and stop signs they can’t believe it. “ IT SEES THE LIGHTS ON THE TRAFFIC LIGHT??? WOW!!!”

People that never rode or driven a Tesla before, and they get it right away that this is completely something else.

*sugar* is going to get wild when more and more will experience it.

Don’t bet against Elon and the team!

LFG!!!

 

[Big Time]

Nice chart. Please share the source.

I made it on Trading View.
Images and gradients are nice

In in regards to the tubular spanking machine....shes a real beauty. Perhaps integrated into the 2023 Model of the Heavy-Duty A$$THWAPPER beta that is due for release sometime in early(very early) Oct 2022.


And in regards to my new avatar........ I aim to please.