Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

Was expecting to be blown away. Expectations met.

f it does grow then there is a distinct possibility that being at the top of the stack in the future will be highly correlated with being a Tesla shareholder now.

Yup, keeping my $375T market cap in 2030 projection.

 

[petit_bateau]

Since this is the investor thread, it should be pointed out that Optimus is currently immaterial to the valuation of TSLA, and will remain immaterial for at least three more years, and likely many more than that.

If Optimus was a separate startup it would be a very intriguing investment. As a pre-revenue company it might already be valued at $10 billion with a very real chance of a 10x return in 5 years.

BUT, inside a $1T high growth car and truck company, $10 billion just isn’t material, folks.

Fascinating, yes. Tantalizing, yes. But irrelevant to our TSLA investment thesis.

TSLA at the moment is approx $1 trillion market cap.

World total stock market capitalisation is approx $100 trillion.

On the basis of Automotive and Energy achieving perfect execution against stated goals by 2030 (20m veh/yr and 1,500 GWh/yr storage) I can project a $7 trillion mkt cap for Tesla in 2030. Only 8-years away.

That $7tn ascribes zero valuation for what I term Tesla Robotics. That's FSD, Dojo, Optimus, etc. (and I've never wanted to give any value to RoboTaxi )

If Robotics continues to grow and fulfill its very obvious promise then in 8-years it would not be unreasonable to add in another $7 tn. You only need to start doing #humans on planet x value-add per human scribbles to get to well above that number. Heck the easy calc is just adding $1k of value to 1:10 of the approx 10-billion humans, that is $10 tn value add which would bring about a corresponding mkt cap increase.

Whilst it is right to note that even the early release versions of this stuff are paying their own way (or will do so soon), that is not quite the point. The point is the value of what this enables.

This is very now relevant to the TSLA investment thesis. Difficult to value yes, but no longer immaterial.

 

[Singuy]

Also great breakdown here

https://twitter.com/x/status/1576140275847610369

Looking for robotic engineers to comment, we all know how Tesla investors feel. I can't say how impressive yesterday's presentation was.

I do feel like Tesla focused on the right areas attacking the issue. I was unsure how the robot learn and lacks the depth level of the FSD part of the presentation. They didn't go over their aspirational goal for robotic programing, which I think is what makes the Tesla bot unique. It's suppose to do tasks that are not preprogrammed, so is it there yet? Did it know that watering can was a watering can vs just generic objects detection? How long did it take from not knowing how to water to knowing how to water? Is Tesla labeling everything in thr world and that is their path to non preprogrammed tasks? These are questions an operator would like to know besides it costing 20k.

But when it comes to actuators and focused on simplicity for manufacturing, we all expected that was where Tesla was going and didn't disappoint.

 

[Bouboule]

The bot can be more useful and valuable than Fsd earlier in my view. Fsd needs to solve most edge cases before being autonomous, as the bot can work in a know environment and only need to solve predictable tasks. When i saw him watering the plants I though of a minibot picking strawberries. Farming is very predictable but sometimes extremely hard to automate. With the actual state of fsd vision it already seems possible and it’s easy for everyone to see huge value.
If you look at the timeline and how long it took to get the hardware working for the complete bot, the software team probably only got a couple weeks to play with it, imagine in 6 months.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

People who can, do. People who can’t, criticize.

Not all. Some of us invest.

 

[mongo]

Since this is the investor thread, it should be pointed out that Optimus is currently immaterial to the valuation of TSLA, and will remain immaterial for at least three more years, and likely many more than that.

If Optimus was a separate startup it would be a very intriguing investment. As a pre-revenue company it might already be valued at $10 billion with a very real chance of a 10x return in 5 years.

BUT, inside a $1T high growth car and truck company, $10 billion just isn’t material, folks.

Fascinating, yes. Tantalizing, yes. But irrelevant to our TSLA investment thesis.

Why is Nevada expansion stalled? Worker shortage/ water.
What is a contributor to vehicle cost? Workers/ labor.
How many humans are needed per new factory? 10k+ when fully staffed.
2k workers * $100k fully burdened cost = $200 million in savings per year. $0.06 per share earnings increase. Or $0.03 per thousand bots.

 

[Sancho]

TSLA at the moment is approx $1 trillion market cap.

World total stock market capitalisation is approx $100 trillion.

On the basis of Automotive and Energy achieving perfect execution against stated goals by 2030 (20m veh/yr and 1,500 GWh/yr storage) I can project a $7 trillion mkt cap for Tesla in 2030. Only 8-years away.

That $7tn ascribes zero valuation for what I term Tesla Robotics. That's FSD, Dojo, Optimus, etc. (and I've never wanted to give any value to RoboTaxi )

If Robotics continues to grow and fulfill its very obvious promise then in 8-years it would not be unreasonable to add in another $7 tn. You only need to start doing #humans on planet x value-add per human scribbles to get to well above that number. Heck the easy calc is just adding $1k of value to 10-billion humans, that is $10 tn value add which would bring about a corresponding mkt cap increase.

Whilst it is right to note that even the early release versions of this stuff are paying their own way (or will do so soon), that is not quite the point. The point is the value of what this enables.

This is very now relevant to the TSLA investment thesis. Difficult to value yes, but no longer immaterial.

Sorry, but unless you believe that “Tesla Robotics” will be worth more than, say, $100 billion in the next two years, then it’s immaterial to our TSLA investment now. The chance that it may be worth $7T in 2030 is immaterial today if it won’t be worth more than $100 billion two years from now.

As an investor (in contrast to a future tech enthusiast) it’s important to keep your eye on the ball of what is going to materially impact valuation over the next two years.

 

[mongo]

Sorry, but unless you believe that “Tesla Robotics” will be worth more than, say, $100 billion in the next two years, then it’s immaterial to our TSLA investment now. The chance that it may be worth $7T in 2030 is immaterial today if it won’t be worth more than $100 billion two years from now.

As an investor (in contrast to a future tech enthusiast) it’s important to keep your eye on the ball of what is going to materially impact valuation over the next two years.

You are focusing on external valuation.
Why not internal utility?
What is the expense/income/ happy happy joy joy impact of Optimus being able to do minor service on Tesla vehicles overnight? (Oh, especially if FSD launches).
Ability to ramp vehicle manufacturing because there is a near limitless source of pre-trained labor available? No holidays, no sick days, 24/7 output. All steps monitored and recorded for quality control. All improvements instantly integrated in all robo-workers.
Copy/paste at scale.
The machines that build the machine.

 

[petit_bateau]

Sorry, but unless you believe that “Tesla Robotics” will be worth more than, say, $100 billion in the next two years, then it’s immaterial to our TSLA investment now. The chance that it may be worth $7T in 2030 is immaterial today if it won’t be worth more than $100 billion two years from now.

As an investor (in contrast to a future tech enthusiast) it’s important to keep your eye on the ball of what is going to materially impact valuation over the next two years.

I understand your point.

I think Tesla Robotics can scale faster than Tesla Auto. (Let's ignore the mess of Tesla Energy as that is too sad).

FSD appears to have about 250k takers out of approx 3m vehicle sales so far, heavily concentrated in NA plus some in EU (where it is not permitted to use it). That is an approx 8% take rate. If general release shifts that to (say) 20% take rate x (say) $15k/ea revenue x 90% GM then for the 2025 sales (6m veh/yr) that is an additional $14bn profit/yr in 2025. My current net profit for 2025 is forecasted at $43 bn for a $3.3 tn mkt cap. Adding in an extra 14/43=32% pops an extra $1.1 tn on the mkt cap. Not shabby.

Turning to Optimus the ramp rate can be faster than Automotive. Cell supply is an 80kWh/veh constraint on veh ramp rate. With only 3kWh of cell (2.3kWh usable) per Robot that ramp rate constraint is gone. With Auto the $60k capex is an affordability hurdle for many, but at $20k that hurdle is much reduced. Supercharger constraint on adoption dynamic also eliminated. Tesla already can do factories at scale. Remaining real constraint will be chips in all their various forms, but at these volumes every cellphone supply chain co will want in on the act as it is highly aligned with their low power stuff vs the high power stuff that is so often a supply constraint in the cars (and in the Energy). So quick scaling in bots can rapidly feed mkt cap in a way that Auto is only now getting to the S curve.

And this is ignoring the virtuous loops that can be set up. Self use in factories. Installs for Tesla Energy. etc.

So no .... I do think this is material.

 

[The Accountant]

AI Day 2 is a recruiting event. What will impress AI/ML talent will likely fly over my head.
In the weeks that follow, Tesla will get flooded with resumes from the top talent in AI/ML and TSLAQ and pseudo-media will mock it

From this past Monday. So predictable.

 

[Buckminster]

For those too young or old to get the bumble reference:

 

[Creekstalker]

it might already be valued at $10 billion with a very real chance of a 10x return in 5 years

But irrelevant to our TSLA investment thesi

I thought I knew what "irrelevant" meant but I guess not.

 

[AndrewZ]

If Optimus was a separate startup it would be a very intriguing investment. As a pre-revenue company it might already be valued at $10 billion with a very real chance of a 10x return in 5 years.

In the days of near or 0% Fed funds rate maybe!

In the current environment, financing costs (still historically low) will crush companies not turning a profit. It might be some time before the free money returns.

Companies who started up in the era of free money also need to start turning a profit now in order to survive.

 

[The Accountant]

In the days of near or 0% Fed funds rate maybe!

In the current environment, financing costs (still historically low) will crush companies not turning a profit. It might be some time before the free money returns.

Companies who started up in the era of free money also need to start turning a profit now in order to survive.

I believe there is still a lot of Private Equity funding to support innovative companies. Goldman Sachs just launched a $9.7B Venture Capital fund (West Street Capital Partners VIII) to invest in healthcare, technology and climate change transition.

 

[CorneliusXX]

In the days of near or 0% Fed funds rate maybe!

In the current environment, financing costs (still historically low) will crush companies not turning a profit. It might be some time before the free money returns.

Companies who started up in the era of free money also need to start turning a profit now in order to survive.

Financing costs are now about average historically

 

[CorneliusXX]

The predictions of what it can, and can’t do are pie in the sky, but it literally showed it picking up a box and taking it across the room. That in of itself with a little bit more programming and self-awareness could be used for simple tasks around the factory. This alone is its own company worth a lot more than many companies in of themselves. They cannot be serious about the price if that is really the price, Amazon must be drooling right now.

I'd be amazed if all the big tech firms didn't watch that presentation and decide to try and make their own bot. Far easier to manufacture than a car and easier to source cells at that pack size. There's an almost infinite market to fill, an presumably we'll see quite a few zunes before the market consolidates.

 

[BornToFly]

From a TSLA valuation standpoint, the FSD updates were huge. The amount of data/miles they are able to collect and label, etc., is not something anyone else can match. I understand even better now why companies like Waymo are stuck with geofencing and limited slow drives where cars get stuck if they lose connectivity. Maybe more investors will start to understand that the Robotaxi valuation is getting closer to being realized, and that others will have a hard time catching up.

I know this was a recruiting event, but the fact that everyone is talking more about Optimus and Boston Dynamics than auto FSD tells me that the general public/investing community might be missing the bigger picture in regards to TSLA's near term valuation.

 

[elasalle]

I'd be amazed if all the big tech firms didn't watch that presentation and decide to try and make their own bot. Far easier to manufacture than a car and easier to source cells at that pack size. There's an almost infinite market to fill, an presumably we'll see quite a few zunes before the market consolidates.

So easy even GM and Ford are gonna announce it

Actually not easy, it's just that Tesla makes it look easy. They have been trying to solve general vision based AI for 10+ years, that's why Robotics programs seems so easy ...cheers!!

 

[petit_bateau]

From a TSLA valuation standpoint, the FSD updates were huge. The amount of data/miles they are able to collect and label, etc., is not something anyone else can match. I understand even better now why companies like Waymo are stuck with geofencing and limited slow drives where cars get stuck if they lose connectivity. Maybe more investors will start to understand that the Robotaxi valuation is getting closer to being realized, and that others will have a hard time catching up.

I know this was a recruiting event, but the fact that everyone is talking more about Optimus and Boston Dynamics than auto FSD tells me that the general public/investing community might be missing the bigger picture.

Precisely. Tesla are accelerating so fast. The moat is growing. Seeing it done is not as easy as copying it.

 

[larmor]

I'd be amazed if all the big tech firms didn't watch that presentation and decide to try and make their own bot. Far easier to manufacture than a car and easier to source cells at that pack size. There's an almost infinite market to fill, an presumably we'll see quite a few zunes before the market consolidates.

Yes most Silicon Valley companies are thinking we can do this in 6 months also… I agree… this will decimate any former or future competitors of Tesla because Tesla has so much experience with motors etc