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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It’s going to change the lives of the people currently doing unskilled labor even more. They won’t be able to compete and will lose their jobs. If they’re lucky they may get a universal basic income.

UBI by itself isn't an answer. People need a purpose in life otherwise they generally become depressed and discontented. Money doesn't actually bring happiness just by itself. Figuring out something useful to do for the average or below average person is what is needed.
 
Well I said Dojo's perf/watt is 2.7x better than A100 so whatever way to cut it, it's worth implementing. However the only ? I have is will it be better than Nvidia's next gen Hopper which is coming out the same time Dojo is trying to go live. If Nvidia didn't claim any 4-6x improvement then it wouldn't matter. However they did so it'll be a new reference of comparison.

I was extremely impressed with Dojo a year ago because the improvement in performance vs A100 was obvious and Tesla's chip knocked it out of the park. However it seems that cooling/powering this ultra dense die gave Tesla lots of problems and added a few delays along the way. Now with Nvidia's next gen ready for launch, they made up a lot of ground(according to their claims) and it's just a drop in plug and play. I did not expect Nvidia's next gen to leapfrog Dojo in any meaningful way and the claims need to be verified. At the end of the day if Tesla's NN gives a more diminishing in return on Nvidia's hardware than Dojo then everything here I am comparing to doesn't matter anyways.

Dojo is a much bigger concept than anything Nvidia is doing. It is a complete supercomputer and in particular it has truly massive communications bandwidth. If you look at real AI supercomputers, that's the differentiating factor, how much inter-die communications do you have?
 
Hello, P&D numbers? Bueller?

4ea.jpg

I think they are a little late because Elon keeps getting interrupted with “how many did we deliver?” while he’s adding and he has to start all over again 😩
 
UBI by itself isn't an answer. People need a purpose in life otherwise they generally become depressed and discontented. Money doesn't actually bring happiness just by itself. Figuring out something useful to do for the average or below average person is what is needed.

It is, and honestly between that and UBI from "somewhere", we're gonna need a better answer than "That's something we'll have to figure out"

And sooner rather than later if Optimus is ready to start displacing millions of unskilled labor jobs before end of this decade.
 

365/343 P/D

As expected, increased production is overwhelming surge delivery methods of the past.

*Edit explainer: "Historically, our delivery volumes have skewed towards the end of each quarter due to regional batch building of cars. As our production volumes continue to grow, it is becoming increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistics weeks. In Q3, we began transitioning to a more even regional mix of vehicle builds each week, which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter. These cars have been ordered and will be delivered to customers upon arrival at their destination."
 
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It is, and honestly between that and UBI from "somewhere", we're gonna need a better answer than "That's something we'll have to figure out"

And sooner rather than later if Optimus is ready to start displacing millions of unskilled labor jobs before end of this decade.

The only bright spot in the near term is that we are running into a structural labor shortage in the developed world right now. A combination of low births PLUS baby boomer retirement is having very real effects. So a robotic workforce coming on line in 5-10 years may actually cause less disruption than you would think.

Look at Japan for how this is being managed now. With a declining and ageing population, they already have many hotels and restaurants that are fully automated (at least in the customer facing areas). A Japanese citizen can get a free home from the government since so many people die with no heirs.
 
AI expert reacts to Tesla AI day:

Fast summary:
Thinks Tesla are great at hardware but sucks at software, wants the to opensource the bot. Shills comma.ai stuff a lot. Very impressed by Dojo. Generally seems to like Tesla, Elon etc.
Isn't that sorta the point of AI day 2022...recruiting? If someone who has real skills can legitimately think Tesla sucks at AI software (really?), then they could must see the opportunity to join the team and quickly demonstrate their superior skills and knowledge. They could do more in their field of expertise by having more resources and the most devoted, hard working team members than anywhere else...working on the cutting edge of humanoid robot development. Even if they do suck today (really?), seems like that evaluation won't stand very long.

EDIT: Ignore this is Hotz as my comments wouldn't likely apply to biased competitors
 
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Yikes, tomorrow is going to be a bloodbath

It's almost exactly what I expected for production, but I also expected higher deliveries than that.

Gary isn't clueless, he just errs on the conservative side with his estimates. I lean conservative on my TSLA expectations too, but slightly higher than what Gary forecasts here. I think 365-370K production is very likely, but I'm not expecting more than that because we did have minor shutdowns this quarter.

Still a new record quarter, but this will make hitting the Q4 numbers needed for 50% YoY much more difficult. I feel we'll come in a bit under 50% growth for 2022, maybe 45-48%. Which of course isn't terrible! :cool:
 
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I'm happy with 366k production. Deliveries at 343 shows that 22k were en route at end of Q. With a hurricane on the east coast USA and a Typhoon affecting Shanghai, I'm fine with that.

Production is what matters, and that ramped appropriately.
Don’t get me wrong, the numbers don’t affect my valuation.

But you can bet wall st is going to grossly overreact to these numbers. Wouldn’t be surprised by a 10% down day…..especially if macros are weak