Exactly, that way China can concentrate more on export to the closer markets like Australia, Singapore, et al, without having to ship halfway across the globe to Europe. It may take a couple more quarters, but they'll get there.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Congratulations to the Tesla Team and all associated suppliers and contractors, delivering yet another record quarter of BEVs.
Tomorrow (Monday) is a big day for the restofthem.
www.investors.com
"General Motors (GM), Ford (F), Stellantis(STLA), Toyota Motors (TM) and Honda Motor (HMC) are among those teeing up to disclose September and Q3 sales. They are due to report Monday Oct. 3."
Tesla Q3 Worldwide sales actual: 343,830 vehicles, up 43.3%
Tesla Q3 Worldwide production actual: 365,923, up 53.7%
All other auto manufacturers report a sale once vehicle is delivered to their network of Dealers, unlike Tesla which only reports a sale only once vehicle is in final possession of individual end user of vehicle (Owner). Since all Tesla vehicles are pre-sold (no inventory), Production % increase/decrease to be compared is more in tune with the other auto manufacturers results (all % results are year over year (YOY) ending Q3 2022 for this post).Tomorrow (Monday) is a big day for the restofthem.
Ford Joins GM With Q3 Sales Surge On Strong Car Demand
Ford stock and GM stock both spiked. Concern on U.S. auto sales has expanded to demand.
www.investors.com
General Motors Q3 US only sales estimate: 539,028 vehicles, up 21.6%.
Ford Motor Q3 US only sales estimate: 473,595, up 19.1%.
Stellantis Q3 US only sales estimate: 388,481, down 5.5%.
Toyota Motor Q3 US only sales estimate: 513,846, down 9.2%.
Honda Motor Q3 US only sales estimate: 211,326, down 38.9%.
I would estimate the % increase/decrease of Worldwide sales would be similar to US only sales for the above manufactures. Their actual numbers will come out tomorrow (Monday).
The Accountant
Active Member
Not sure if you are looking for Tesla only or also for other auto makers.
If Tesla only Troy has made his spreadsheet available. See link below:
Tesla Production & Delivery History, created by @TroyTeslike, last updated on 26 July 2022
Deliveries 1 APAC excl China,APAC excl China,APAC excl China,Canada,Canada,Canada,China,China,China,Europe,Europe,Europe,USA,USA,USA,Total Deliveries,Model 3,Model S/X,Model Y,Model 3,Model S/X,Model Y,Model 3,Model S/X,Model Y,Model 3,Model S/X,Model Y,Model 3,Model S/X,Model Y,All models Year,...
How does Tesla report used car sales, which are likely significant and may come with margins similar to new cars? Might that have a tangible effect on Q3? With generally such long wait times for many models, the availability of cars coming off lease and cars made available through trade-in (we were one, traded in our 2021 Model Y and bought a 2022 Model X in August) was more appealing to many than waiting an extra several months.
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The Accountant
Active Member
Tesla segregates revenues and cost of sales into 3 business segments:
- Auto
- Energy
- Services and Other.
Used car sales are reported in Services & Other. This segment has recently become profitable mainly through profits on used cars.
Your point is valid; there could be a surprise upside here.
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Tesla can unwind the wave. However, the tide will only grow larger, as more and more BEV are produced and delivered. Yes, new Gigafactories on each Continent will temporarily compress the tide, however Tesla going from 1M BEV to 20M BEV deliveries per year will see the difference between production numbers and delivery numbers typically increase most quarters. Only when Tesla achieves a steady run rate will the tide/wave be a non event and this is eight years away. Vehicles are not (yet) instantly teleported from the Gigafactories direct to the Owners' driveways. Until such time embrace the wave and catch the tide. It's all about Production. And, yes, Q3 2022 was a Production beat.
The Accountant
Active Member
How many companies with revenues of over $22B are growing earnings by 141%
Would really be crazy if the stock is down tomorrow.
On Oct 19, Tesla will report record financial results.
I estimate:
Note the leverage: Revenues grow 60% while GAAP Earnings grow 141%
My Q3 estimate can be found here: Q3 Estimates adjusted with P&D report numbers
(page up or down from my entry to review estimates from @Gigapress and @petit_bateau)
Would really be crazy if the stock is down tomorrow.
On Oct 19, Tesla will report record financial results.
I estimate:
Record Revenues $22.0B +60%
Record Gross Profit $6.0B +64%
Record Operating Profit $4.4B +117%
Record GAAP Earnings $3.9B +141%
Record Non-GAAP EPS $1.22 vs Wall Street $1.07
Note the leverage: Revenues grow 60% while GAAP Earnings grow 141%
My Q3 estimate can be found here: Q3 Estimates adjusted with P&D report numbers
(page up or down from my entry to review estimates from @Gigapress and @petit_bateau)
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Where does TV interviews come here ? There is a ton of interviews that move the market ...
EVNow
Well-Known Member
But that is obvious given the estimates as of Friday and apparently the market has already taken that into account, right ?
The Accountant
Active Member
My earnings are higher than Wall Street consensus. If Tesla delivers higher eps than estimated why would share price come down? Right?
I have $1.22 and WS has $1.07
Let's see if WS takes their $1.07 down. If this is truly a miss, their number should come down, but I don't think WS reduces the $1.07.
Delivery number is a red herring . . .earnings matter.
Gigapress
Trying to be less wrong
The SEC Regulation FD (Source) says that intentional selective disclosure of material nonpublic information to investment companies must be released "simultaneously" to the public or in the case of unintentional disclosure, "promptly" i.e. "as soon as reasonably practicable (but in no event after the later of 24 hours or the commencement of the next day's trading on the New York Stock Exchange) after a senior official of the issuer...learns that there has been a non-intentional disclosure".
Public disclosure of this sort must be done either via filing an 8-K form or via "another method (or combination of methods) of disclosure that is reasonably designed to provide broad, non-exclusionary distribution of the information to the public."
Additionally, the responsibility for public disclosure belongs to the issuer of the information (Tesla), not the recipients of the info (investment analysts).
It definitely appears to me that Tesla would be flagrantly breaking the law if they were to give institutional investment analysts material nonpublic information without simultaneously disclosing it to all of us by filing an 8-K or broadcasting it on Youtube/Twitter like they did for AI Day which was essentially 3 straight hours of Tesla disclosing material information via livestream. I also can't think of any motive for Tesla IR to break this rule anyway. What would be the benefit of such unethical behavior to justify jeopardization of the mission? Besides, it seems like Tesla leadership generally has disdain for the investment banking establishment and if anything Tesla would prefer to avoid giving them an unfair advantage by privately tipping them off with information that is material to forecasting near-term production and delivery numbers.
I think TV interviews on major channels like CNBC or Fox Business are different because they are probably considered simultaneous public disclosure that meets the requirement of providing broad, non-exclusionary distribution. If Martin Viecha went on Squawk Box and disclosed material information, you would have to be living under a rock not to quickly find out about it as an investor, because the interview would be watched live by many people and quickly spread to the whole market by other media outlets reporting on the interview and by social media. I believe the same goes for Elon's Twitter account and the Tesla Twitter and Youtube accounts.
(I'm not a lawyer and this is not legal advice. The above could be mistaken.)
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What was the difference that Tesla panels survived while the others didn't ?
It was solar water heaters for pools vs solar panels, not panels vs panels.
Water heaters can be larger and likely not secured as well (no racking). Tesla Solar has transitions on the edges which would divert winds.
I could have missed it but the lack of mention of credit suisse and duetche bank seem bad. While tesla stills seems to be executing wonderfully I think keeping in mind the giant spectre over the market right now is important. Especially considering the numbers of people on margin is non zero
jeeze i thought i was a debbie downer
take a nice stroll. get some fresh air. we’ll be at $400 by way of $200 sooner or later
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
That's the goal of all this, no? Certainly seems to me the Fed wants the excess jobs trimmed and to margin call the very most leveraged.
The big US banks on the other hand are overflowing with cash.
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