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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If you going to make a career on Youtube, just make sure you have orders of magnitude more success than I.

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Nice! It looks like you have targeted the "smooth jazz" genre of robotics engineering primers. I could especially relate when you talked about how having multiple joints provided you with more freedom. I know I always felt more limited when I only had one joint left, so I felt like I was really starting to get the big picture! ;)

All kidding aside, I was disappointed while watching Tesla's presentation to see a non-athlete being used to model human motion (14:45 in your video). The guy with the kinematic sensors strapped to his body should be an athlete with an exceptionally beautiful understanding of how to move with efficiency and grace. Using a middle-aged desk-bound geek for this purpose seems like a major blunder (no offense to that particular employee but everyone has roles they are particularly suited to). The creation of data (for example the kinematic sensor data) that will be used by many people in the development process should be sacred and of the highest possible quality to get the most out of it.

I am also wondering about your thoughts on bi-ped balance. I think you mentioned that the robot must keep track of its center of mass because unexpected perturbations could upset this. I envisioned robots blowing over in a strong gust of wind, something that would make the robot look quaint and useless. I'm curious if you have an opinion on how Tesla needs to detect perturbations. Obviously, humans use multiple means including nerves in the foot to measure pressure changes, nerves in other areas to detect pressure (for example a shove to the shoulder or wind pressing on the windward side of the body), the inner ear, vision (for example of the horizon), and perhaps a sub-conscious awareness of the movement of our center of mass.

I imagine if a robot could track the movement of its center of mass accurately enough, and at a high enough frequency, combined with local accelerometers located at key areas of the robot, that would allow the outside forces that were acting upon the robot to be calculated accurately in order to respond appropriately (counter-act the outside forces). Of course, it would be possible to supplement balance awareness with many other sensors including vision and pressure sensors. What do you think is the best strategy for Optimus? Which inputs should be the primary inputs? Should secondary inputs be fused with the primary inputs or used only as a confirmation? It seems like the same conundrum Tesla faced with vision and LIDAR, what to do when the inputs disagreed with each other. But intuition tells me balance needs to be more immediate, operating at a higher frequency, for it to be robust, to rely on vision alone. I don't think vision-based balance (combined with self-awareness of body positioning) would have enough resolution to be used for balance corrections.

In short, I can see how the computations required to maintain superior balance in challenging environments and/or conditions could consume a lot of processing energy but, on the flip side, not having superior balance could severely reduce the utility of a robot by making it vulnerable to expensive damage in challenging conditions and neuter its utility. It comes down to risk/reward. The owner of the robot does not want to take (for example) a 0.1% chance that it could sustain $200 in damage in order to complete a short task that is only worth $0.20. Because even though that looks like a "push", it's inconvenient and takes your robot out of service until it can be repaired.

How do you think the robot best achieves robust and versatile balance without consuming excessive compute power?

The investor in me senses that the Optimus development program might be too lean of an operation for the optimal return on investment over time. They could let the "git 'er done quick" teams continue their work while having parallel teams taking a longer-term approach that is already developing the next generation designs (without actually building them). The learnings from the quick teams can be shared with the longer-term teams as they go, with the longer-term teams developing the next platform (or a higher-end, more capable, heavier duty platform). I think it makes sense to have an inexpensive lighter-weight, weaker platform, and a more robust, more capable and more expensive heavier platform. I thought the initial Optimus would be even flimsier/cheaper than what I saw but it looks like they are building a robust and durable high-quality robot. I'm sure with time the platform will split into two models (cheap and light, heavier and more robust), but it probably makes sense to develop them in parallel from the beginning (or very near the beginning). So, I hope the AI day recruiting effort was a raging success. When the economy falters, and the economic future looks most uncertain, that is when recruiting can be most successful. The potential reward of highly versatile humanoid robots is so lucrative I think it makes sense for Tesla to have "layered" teams working on this in parallel.
 
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Tesla 3.2% of UK car market in September, mostly Model Y, 1600 Model 3 (assuming no S/X)
 
One concern we have (spouse and I) is that Tesla is getting ready to give away one of their greatest moats in North America. We follow a few other boards, Hyundai, Lightning F150, Bolt etc. They all love their vehicles and would never consider a Tesla (weird tesla hate) but all hate the charging experience of their vehicles with EA or EC or Petrocan or EVGO or whoever. They can’t wait until the end of the year when tesla opens up their charging network to everyone. Then they’ll all have the only advantage of owning a tesla without having to buy a piece of chit tesla.

Just sayin. I don’t see a big advantage of tesla going down this road. And in my opinion will hurt the company in the long term…and short term.

Jmho.

There are going to be people who would "Never own a Tesla" regardless. Then they will show up at a Tesla charger and watch cars roll in and roll out before their Hyundai is 60% charged. Doesn't take a ton of smarts to realize Tesla owners take about half as much time at the charger which makes for a much better road tripping experience.

The more time non-Tesla owners spend at Superchargers, the more likely they will buy a Tesla as their next car.
 
I hope TSLA is taking notes. :)
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My earnings are higher than Wall Street consensus. If Tesla delivers higher eps than estimated why would share price come down? Right?
I have $1.22 and WS has $1.07
Let's see if WS takes their $1.07 down. If this is truly a miss, their number should come down, but I don't think WS reduces the $1.07.
Delivery number is a red herring . . .earnings matter.
I was only talking about missing delivery estimates. Ofcourse if esp estimates are beat, we should expect a positive reaction.
 
Decent rebuttal…. (Read the full conversation)


I did my part in the last few days, including 100 chairs this AM! Keep the faith! The mission keeps on!
 
Let's take a break from the bloodbath today and watch something positive!

Thank you for link. Interesting commercial crew members combination:
Russian cosmonaut Anna Kikina, NASA astronaut Josh Cassada, NASA astronaut Nicole Mann, Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata.​

Note: I could not read the today custom plates?

2022 10 05 - Crew 5 Mission Launch .jpg

On previous missions, the custom plates were ISSBND meaning ISS Bound.

2020 05 31 - SpaceX Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley .jpg
 
I think it is dumb to remove the ultrasonics until the software is complete. If it is truly a couple months until Tesla Vision can handle the removal why not just wait until the software is done. Dont see it as a good thing to remove capabilities even in just short term. Should just have waited until replacement software is ready.
Probably has to do with supply contracts which expired around this time
 
Thank you for link. Interesting commercial crew members combination:
Russian cosmonaut Anna Kikina, NASA astronaut Josh Cassada, NASA astronaut Nicole Mann, Japanese astronaut Koichi Wakata.​

Note: I could not read the today custom plates?

View attachment 860271

On previous missions, the custom plates were ISSBND meaning ISS Bound.

View attachment 860270
Today's plate: BLA5TOFF