They're doing this to be ready for invasion of Taiwan, and you think the western governments would just casually allow them to flood western market with tens of millions of cars? Huawei is already under sanction, I wouldn't be surprised that this will be extended to any car company using their product. The only thing the two parties can agree nowadays is the need to contain China.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Pepsi had over 11,000 tractors in 2019.
15 ain't good enough for testing. Frankly, 100 might not be for how much they cover.
I am sure Tesla has tested the tractor very properly before deliveries. It is only up from there.
I agree that they won't hit my 33% from the start. But after a few months of ramping. And I expect prices to ramp after the current backlog is delivered.
I think the construction will be easier than the S3XY cars since it's bigger and roomier. But more done for hand initially which cost more. And since I am an optimist I have added a decent amount of IRA cost cuts thanks to the large battery.
They also said they would not bring new models to market without hurting production.
It makes sense, especially if they have the battery capacity, to roll out new models as demand levels out or equals production. Surely they could have 10 models for sale right now and be horrible at many of them.
If there is some equilibrium being established with model sales and production, so be it. Some will see it as bearish, but all it does is increase dominance of new markets with new products. As others pointed out, semi getting on the road is bad AR$E advertising for the whole brand.
They will continue to improve current product manufacturing and be able to lower prices. Isn't that what has happened with every model except for original roadster?
Protectionism cuts both ways. China is a very important market for many European carmakers and to GM and Tesla. Western governments will not single out Chinese cars anymore than they did Japanese or Korean cars. If they do, China will retaliate. Huawei was a security issue not protectionism.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I don't expect Tesla Semi to be fully ramped until the 2nd Assembly Line is running at capacity in Austin. I do expect the ramp to look somethink like an 'S' curve: 1,000/yr, then 10,000, then 100,000/yr for steady state. (that's just for N. America - I expect Europe and China will build localized versions).
And the Tesla van that Elon has alluded to in the past. Now that we are hearing rumblings of margins going down, its time to take that battery supply and double down on CT, Semi, and a van. These should come ahead of the robotaxi platform, which would be a lower margin vehicle that's perhaps mostly cast. May be even more so than the CT and Y.
China is only an important market for now, if China EV brands are/will be giving Tesla a run for its money, how well do you think European carmakers and GM will fare in the Chinese market in the future?
As for security issue, you think millions of multi-ton cars controlled by Chinese software is not a security threat?
Couldn't help myself. With all the bullish things happening for Tesla right now and the share price down so low, I bought more TSLA for my "fun" short term account. I'll sell them sometime next year after Q4 for a nice profit. Or maybe I'll just decide to start holding TSLA in my fun account as well, what's one more account holding TSLA long? 
I'm with you. Usually I just trade options but I had to finally buy some shares here. I'm not calling a bottom, and don't think it is, but it's pretty good no matter what the next few months look like.Couldn't help myself. With all the bullish things happening for Tesla right now and the share price down so low, I bought more TSLA for my "fun" short term account. I'll sell them sometime next year after Q4 for a nice profit. Or maybe I'll just decide to start holding TSLA in my fun account as well, what's one more account holding TSLA long?
petit_bateau
Active Member
Of course they are doing this to be ready for Taiwan, plus many other motivations that have aligned solutions.
However in case you hadn't noticed China is in the WTO. So the West cannot stop China exporting tens of millions of cars unless the West can prove anti-competitive practices.
I seem to remember Japan and South Korea proved this point in the past. But we took care to at least make sure they were onside with the West before bringing them into the WTO.
But that is all water under the bridge now.
The South Korean government must be heavily subsidizing Hyundai/Kia/Genesis and/or they're putting out loss leader after loss leader to change their image and perception before jacking up prices -- Genesis' lineup is starting to see big price jumps, for example with the G90 initially being the "value" buy against its competitors but the 2023 model is getting closer to price parity.Jobs growth was lower than expected so that's good. (since we live in Bizzaro Fed world now) Unemployment still decreasing though.
Unemployment rate falls to 3.5% in September, payrolls rise by 263,000 as job market stays strong
Nonfarm payrolls in September increased 263,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 275,000. The unemployment rate was 3.5%.www.cnbc.com
I'm really skeptical of those MSRPS and range numbers from Kia. Very much agree that it's a gap in the current EV landscape. I have 2 kids and a small dog, my GF has 1 kid and a mini-horse (great dane mix) so the Model Y is very tight when we load up. Might have to upgrade her to an X at some point but the cupboard is a little bare right now and I'll already be buying my quad Cybertruck this summer.
But that auto group is currently offering too much value for the price, I have a 2021 Genesis GV80 and legitimately don't know how they made money on it based on what I paid compared to the interior quality, warranty, and everything else.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Couldn't help myself. With all the bullish things happening for Tesla right now and the share price down so low, I bought more TSLA for my "fun" short term account. I'll sell them sometime next year after Q4 for a nice profit. Or maybe I'll just decide to start holding TSLA in my fun account as well, what's one more account holding TSLA long?
Lower-BB is 227.50 ATM:
TSLA is riding the Lower-BB this week.
EDIT: The $230 Support level held (so far), with the hedgie's attempt to 'trigger the stops' at 09:59:15 ET.
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If it goes any lower than this I may even start using some margin to buy short term TSLA. This is ridiculously low and the SP is nearly guaranteed to go up from here over the next half year, even if the macros continue to suck and the world goes into a possible recession. I still think we'll stay below the ATH of $415 for a year or more, but dangit a gain from $230 to ~$400 per share would be a nice gain for a short term fun account!
HahahahhaGeeze, it's gotten so pessimistic there isn't even an option for good news...
Just realized I switch the good news for bad news
The SP action is really doing it’s job
I dont expect that US consumers will be that warm to Chinese automakers for a good while.
I like the van idea but I believe Tesla would sell a lot more if they had a mid-size 3 row vehicle like the Telluride, Explorer, etc, This segment is hugely popular, at least around me. Technically the Model X is about this size but at $120,000+ puts it into it's own category that has a limited number of potential buyers.
Eventually we will be replacing our Telluride with an EV...I would much rather get a Tesla (love my Model Y and pretty much exclusively drive it now, unless we need the extra space and comfort of the Telluride) and would even pay a premium over what an EV9 would cost, but no way I am spending $130,000+ on the Model X. I sold my last house for less than that.
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