Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[traxila]

Tesla, BYD Break China Delivery Records as EV Rivalry Goes Global

As Elon Musk’s company seeks to regain the lead in the Chinese market, the new-energy auto battle is also heating up overseas.

www.wsj.com

BYD vs. TSLA.

And a line about EM's ideas for Taiwan at the end of the article.

 

[wipster]

Tesla, BYD Break China Delivery Records as EV Rivalry Goes Global

As Elon Musk’s company seeks to regain the lead in the Chinese market, the new-energy auto battle is also heating up overseas.

www.wsj.com

BYD vs. TSLA.

And a line about EM's ideas for Taiwan at the end of the article.

There should be a button for "Grrrr"

 

[dhanson865]

650kwh for 500 miles of EPA range at 82,000 pounds gross weight is not physically possible. Even at 0.25 Cd and unheard of levels of rolling friction. 900 kWh would be an incredible achievement. Tesla semi will be the most efficient big rig on the road by far but let’s not get carried away

"Semi will have 2 drive motors on the ‘torque’ axle and 1 on the ‘efficiency’ axle. Semi was delayed by slowest sub. In this case, the axles and maincase."

So the range/efficiency will be from switching to a motor on a different axle that is geared differently. Tons of torque on the rear axle to get it up to speed then a really tall gear ratio on the front axle to cruise efficiently. If needed us all 3 motors (full or blended throttle).

https://twitter.com/x/status/1574575639524352000

 

[bkp_duke]

There's no appreciable difference in gravimetric energy density for current 4680s over 2170s. When the changes do come, they'll be mostly from new silicon-doped cathodes. And that too is portable to the 2170 format.

4680 trucks will come when the cells are cheaper on a $/Wh basis. Right now, Tesla has 3 or 4 different battery suppliers competing on prices. That'll drive the decisions for trucking / fleet logistics.

Actually, from the tear-downs we have to date, the 4680s are lower in energy density than the 2170s, but the pack density is equal because the pack is more efficiently packed.

The current assumptions/rumors are that the chemistry is being very conservatively done right now to smooth out the manufacturing processes, and will improve when those are set.

 

[traxila]

Chicago FED head, historically dovish but voting for the recent rate hikes, also goes dovish at 4.5%.

"“Overshooting is costly, too, and there is great uncertainty about how restrictive policy must actually become,” he said. “This puts a premium on the strategy of getting to a place where policy can plan to rest and evaluate data and developments.”

Speaking to reporters later Monday, Mr. Evans said he was worried about overreacting to additional reports of stronger-than-anticipated inflation. “We could get a few of those, and if we’ve already done” so many rate increases, “that sort of puts us at somewhat greater risk of responding overly aggressive,” he said."

It is like they are all reading off a script or something....

 

[Singuy]

I agree the numbers are suspect. Carsonight seems to be a former trucker so he should be aware of the efficiencies of existing trucks.

That's why Carsonight said it the numbers were mindblowing. His calculation was basesd on the 16 powerwall comment per pack and extrapolated it out to 650kwh. But yeah the numbers here sound way too good to be true.

 

[dhanson865]

That's why Carsonight said it the numbers were mindblowing. His calculation was basesd on the 16 powerwall comment per pack and extrapolated it out to 650kwh. But yeah the numbers here sound way too good to be true.

1 powerwall is 13.5 kWh, 16 powerwalls per pack is 216 kWh, 3 packs x 216 kWh per pack = 648 but is very literal.

Maybe each pack is over 217 kWh and under 229 kWh and thus 16.x powerwalls and he just said 16 because that's the closest integer.

229 x 3 is 687 kWh

Could really be anywhere between 648 kWh and 687 kWh and still be in the range that would have someone loosely say 16 powerwalls worth.

 

[wipster]

A fully loaded diesel semi gets 6mpg cruising 60 mph on a flat grade. Diesel has 37 kWh of energy per gallon. Diesel engine is 40% efficient.
That comes to about 2.5 kWh delivered to the wheel per mile when you add in losses in the rest of the transmission.

650kwh for 500 miles is 1.3 kWh per mile if you ignore EV drivetrain losses and assume the entire battery can be discharged. Adding those in would reduce energy consumption at the wheel further.

Yes Tesla semi is very aerodynamic compared to the diesel but there is no way Tesla has improved energy per mile from 2.5 to 1.3. If they come in at 1.9 that would be a big deal

Perhaps the 650kwh is for the 300 mile version of the Semi...

 

[generalenthu]

Some good news given the uncertainty about how much Elon has to sell, to fund Twitter.

 

[elasalle]

Can we atleast have a green day

 

[Artful Dodger]

Perhaps the 650kwh is for the 300 mile version of the Semi...

He said specifically the LR has 3 packs, the SR has 2 packs. So that 648 & 432 KWh respectively.

 

[2daMoon]

Can we atleast have a green day

Shirley*, you can't be serious...

*Surely, you don't think I typoed that?

 

[Todd Burch]

Well whaddaya know, right near zero again. Who wants to bet they'll drive us red right as we approach close?

Ahem...

Well lookie lookie, green almost all day, except for the last few minutes before close. Closed down 0.05%. What a crock of BS. Natural market forces, folks. Nothing to see here.

These guys will donate their left nut to see any color other than green. Cappy cappy cappy.

It's fine though, because unlike their one-nutted selves, I have two balls of steel. And I can hold longer than they can donate nuts.

 

[2daMoon]

Who's your Papa, Deutschland?

Tesla Model Y is the best selling car in Germany, period

The Tesla Model Y is now Germany's best selling vehicle overall, even beating the dreadnaught Volkswagen Golf.

www.teslarati.com

 

[bkp_duke]

Who's your Papa...

Tesla Model Y is the best selling car in Germany, period

The Tesla Model Y is now Germany's best selling vehicle overall, even beating the dreadnaught Volkswagen Golf.

www.teslarati.com

Daum! That smarts @BMW @Mercedes @Audi @VW @everyoneelse.

 

[dhanson865]

He said specifically the LR has 3 packs, the SR has 2 packs. So that 648 & 432 KWh respectively.

1 powerwall is 13.5 kWh, 16 powerwalls per pack is 216 kWh, 3 packs x 216 kWh per pack = 648 but is very literal.

Maybe each pack is over 217 kWh and under 229 kWh and thus 16.x powerwalls and he just said 16 because that's the closest integer.

229 x 3 is 687 kWh

Could really be anywhere between 648 kWh and 687 kWh and still be in the range that would have someone loosely say 16 powerwalls worth.

That'd be between 432 and 458 for the SR Semi and between 648 kWh and 687 kWh for the LR Semi.

I think the rumor is unspecific enough that there is wiggle room on the capacity of the Semis.

 

[insaneoctane]

Regarding the Semi pack:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1575674127121207296

If long range semi = 3 packs * 16 powerwalls/pack = 48 powerwalls worth of batteries. Powerwalls retail for $8,000 to $12,500 (1st = $12.5k, 2-4=$8k, 5-10=$8.5k), so 48 * $8k= $384K. In batteries. I understand that their are some electronics and case, but I don't see how you guys get anywhere close to 30%+ GM% for semi...

 

[wipster]

D

He said specifically the LR has 3 packs, the SR has 2 packs. So that 648 & 432 KWh respectively.

Do you trust him? I guess we'll see...

 

[dhanson865]

If long range semi = 3 packs * 16 powerwalls/pack = 48 powerwalls worth of batteries. Powerwalls retail for $8,000 to $12,500 (1st = $12.5k, 2-4=$8k, 5-10=$8.5k), so 48 * $8k= $384K. In batteries. I understand that their are some electronics and case, but I don't see how you guys get anywhere close to 30%+ GM% for semi...

Powerwalls are $4900 after tax credit if you buy more than one (for the 2nd and 3rd one). That's $6500 before tax credit (at least they are when I use my home address in Tennessee to get the price)

I think you are seeing them price them way higher than the battery cost just to try and maximize panel sales.

Spoiler: powerwall pricing I'm seeing

 

[Baumisch]

Who's your Papa, Deutschland?

Tesla Model Y is the best selling car in Germany, period

The Tesla Model Y is now Germany's best selling vehicle overall, even beating the dreadnaught Volkswagen Golf.

www.teslarati.com

Thank me - my blue MY LR called „BigBlue“ was one of them - the guy in the registration office asked me why he was seing so many MYs the last days, that was beginning September - YEAH