Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

Sorry, I am probably behind there … still nat gas and energy are expensive…

Not really.....

Natural Gas Prices In Europe Fall To A Three-Month Low | OilPrice.com

Natural gas prices in Europe fell to a three-month low on Monday thanks to mild weather and strong LNG imports

oilprice.com

It is cheaper for Berlin to operate today than it was 3 months ago. If this winter Europe is mild, then Germany and the rest of Europe will have actually overstocked on natural gas, sending the price of natural gas plummeting.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla puts planned battery cell production on hold at German plant

Tesla will not start German mass battery production before 2024 -Handelsblatt

Tesla will not start mass production of battery cells at its European gigafactory near Berlin before 2024, German business daily Handelsblatt reported on Friday, citing experts, two of whom are close to the company.

www.reuters.com

This sounds like old news given a new spin to me: Tesla said before that they would send cell production machines originally meant for Berlin to Austin because of IRA incentives for cells made in the US. And we know dry electrode has not been ramping as smoothly as hoped.

Now Reuters said "Tesla (TSLA.O) has put plans to launch battery cell production at its plant outside Berlin on hold due to technical issues" - if there were any technical issues that prevented mass production it would not make sense to ship anything to Austin. So from what we know so far it sounds like they put two old pieces of news together to creaete some FUD IMHO.

Unfortunately, original sourece (Handelsblatt) is behind paywall, does someone here have a subsctiption? Beginning of the article:

The fact that Tesla is not initially starting full battery cell production in its German plant in Grünheide apparently has other reasons than lower energy costs and new tax incentives in the USA worth billions. Several sources close to the electric car manufacturer report a significant delay in a crucial but highly complex production technique. Actually, Tesla was planning a complete cell production in Grünheide. But now only the electrodes are being researched there. All machines for the remaining production steps of winding, assembling and formatting the battery cells are moving to the Austin car plant in Texas, which is now the company's headquarters. This is not a rejection of Grünheide. Tesla boss Elon Musk wants to continue to build a battery cell plant in Brandenburg in the long term. But before that, the electric car manufacturer has to get the so-called dry coating of the electrodes under control. A total of five experts, two of whom are close to Tesla, report that test systems with the technology are currently running quite successfully, but that implementation in large series is lacking.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

My guess is “technical issues” is lack of natural gas for industrial processes

My guess is the dry electrode process. There have been numerous reports in the past about how tricky it has been to get that working.

 

[petit_bateau]

I don't know the answer to the question. I believe there was a determination that there had been fraud.

I was the executor of my father's estate who had been a smallish shareholder of the Tribune Co. After paying legal fees for years I ended up writing a relatively big check to get the estate released from the lawsuit/s. It added years to the estate's final disposition.

I'm not a lawyer but even my lawyer had trouble keeping track of who was being sued by who and in what jurisdiction. Thousands of shareholders who had done nothing wrong - but had benefitted from the fraud - were being sued by multiple parties on the acquirer's side who had been damaged.

If I was a current TWTR shareholder, I'd sell my shares before the closing and possibly avoid future litigation. Just my ill-informed once-burned opinion.

Thanks, informative.

FWIW I do know that rules around D&O insurance vary quite markedly around the world and also within the USA. I have heard (but am not sure if it is correct) that some US states require D&O insurance, but that others prohibit it. You can see arguments both ways ......

 

[ggies07]

If this winter Europe is mild,

yay for climate change? ....... /s

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Somewhat encouraging news for us today:

 

[willow_hiller]

Somewhat encouraging news for us today:

View attachment 863724

Just came here to post this as well. Maybe some early production test-runs using the 9000 ton Giga press?

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Just came here to post this as well. Maybe some early production test-runs using the 9000 ton Giga press?

Dunno if the gigapress is up and running yet but if it is.....can we say Sandbagging???

 

[Opus BC fan]

and here is an update on TSLA.



FUD? We don't need no stinkin FUD!

[3 shares at 208.69 today. My dry powder is all gone ]

 

[ZachF]

Germany, along with other European countries, reached their goal for natural gas stockpiles. The stockpiles are intended to be distributed to a number of different aspects of Germany's economy, including their manufacturing.

I have no clue where you're getting Germany is curtailing the stockpile for manufacturing.

Well, the price is curtailing it’s use in manufacturing…

 

[mongo]

Just came here to post this as well. Maybe some early production test-runs using the 9000 ton Giga press?

Doubtful.
No footage of 9000CS arriving nor peeks through the windows at it.
IDRA can't make castings.

Possibly exoskeleton test articles for line prep. Might have CNCed stand ins for the castings.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla puts planned battery cell production on hold at German plant

Tesla will not start German mass battery production before 2024 -Handelsblatt

Tesla will not start mass production of battery cells at its European gigafactory near Berlin before 2024, German business daily Handelsblatt reported on Friday, citing experts, two of whom are close to the company.

www.reuters.com

That's a hit-job, and total b.s. The REUTERS 'experts' are the same university researchers that analyzed the Galileo Russel 4680 prototype cell which was built before Jan 2022.

That cell had an anode made with the traditional wet-slurry process. We know that Tesla is using the dry process now in Giga Nevada Texas (h/t @mongo) because their are no 50m long drying ovens installed their, nor the complicated solvent recovery filters. And 4680 production is increasing.

No, instead this is REUTERS recycling their own trash, and getting paid for pushing it out the door on an options expiry Friday, just as the SP hit a peak.

 

[Knightshade]

It's an artifact of the 'Call-Wall' that existed this morning at the $225 strike price. Early in the session, options day traders who hold 225 Calls expiring today bid up the SP so they could execute those calls. That was the quick spike after the Open.

Then, once those day traders 'sell-to-close' those Call contracts, Options Market Makers reflexively sell shares they had purchased previously to delta hedge those options. Whenever you see a monotonous, linear down trend in the SP, it's somebodies automated trading system selling program. Today, it's likely Market Makers, but triggered by day trading of Options contracts.

....what?

Executing a call, and selling to close a call, are mutually exclusive actions. You can't do both as you write here. Executing a call means you're buying shares at the strike price ($225 in this case) and you no longer HAVE an option you can sell to close.

I'm also unclear how you think "bidding up the stock to barely over 225 in order to execute 225 calls to get shares you know will immediately be worth less than 225 when the delta hedge unwinds" makes any sense either?

 

[petit_bateau]

Germany, along with other European countries, reached their goal for natural gas stockpiles. The stockpiles are intended to be distributed to a number of different aspects of Germany's economy, including their manufacturing.

I have no clue where you're getting Germany is curtailing the stockpile for manufacturing.

Reporting on Berlin by the media, especially Rueters, has been wrong every step of the way. There was just a public workers meeting where information was disclosed that directly contradicts this FUD. German officials have also stated the opposite of this FUD......but sure go ahead and believe it

I have no opinion on whether there is a link between the reported delay in Tesla Berlin cell manufacturing and the future possibility of gas/etc shortages this winter or next winter in Europe. But it is a plausible suggestion.

However the potential for those shortages is real. The storage that exists in Europe is intended to manage short term supply & demand fluctuations and is sufficient for that. It is not intended to manage seasonal fluctuations, i.e. it is simply insufficient to get Europe through winter. The storage is now basically full, more so than in a normal year. Therefore the likelihood of a gas shortage in the first half of this winter is not likely. However there is very real possibility of a shortfall in the second half of this winter - that will depend for example on weather temperatures, and any further supply disruptions (for example shipping delays; pipeline failures; major gas field issues; major LNG liquefaction terminal issues or major LNG regasification terminal issues). If there is a shortfall in the second half of this winter the stated policy is that non-essential commercial & industrial will be rationed first (so as to protect critical industry processes that cannot be switched off without major damage; and critical emergency/health/etc facilities; and a sufficiency for domestic consumers), and in all likelihood that rationing would include items such as Tesla cell production. There are many calls out there requesting non-essential users to seek to save approx 10%-20% of gas consumption. To be clear, this is not specific to Germany, this is in fact right across Europe.

Depending on how things go in Ukraine and with Russia next winter could be even tighter. Therefore delaying Berlin cells until 2024 is a plausible suggestion. Diverting the kit to Texas and getting everything running smoothly in Texas therefore makes a lot of sense. I'm not sayin this is definitely what is going on, just that it is plausible and so may be one of the factors on the decision-making table.

(By the way we need to be careful reading too much into what appears in the media. Not infrequently I am quite sure that the 'experts' read the stuff here, relay that to the media, and then we see it and 'bingo' circular reporting of confirmation bias.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

My guess is “technical issues” is lack of natural gas for industrial processes.

Yes, that could become an issue for Gigacastings, but not for cell production (which is powered almost entirely by electricity).

Even for gigacastings, there are obvious inventory stockpiles spread around Giga Berlin to support future production, and extra capacity in both Fremont and Austin (from drone videos).

Giga Berlin will be fine. This REUTERS hitpiece was just Fully-funded Friday FUD

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[M|S|M MYP]

So..Lincoln dealers have to spend close to another $1M after spending millions in renovations for the right to sell EV's at razor thin margins? probably will not age well. Article is paywalled.

Ford says top Lincoln dealers face $900,000 bill to sell EVs

Lincoln stores that want to sell EVs will need to invest more than four times as much as Cadillac is asking its retailers to spend, mainly to cover the cost of installing chargers for public use and service needs.

www.autonews.com

 

[saniflash]

....what?

Executing a call, and selling to close a call, are mutually exclusive actions. You can't do both as you write here. Executing a call means you're buying shares at the strike price ($225 in this case) and you no longer HAVE an option you can sell to close.

I'm also unclear how you think "bidding up the stock to barely over 225 in order to execute 225 calls to get shares you know will immediately be worth less than 225 when the delta hedge unwinds" makes any sense either?

Thank you, @Knightshade , for asking this question. I've asked the same question a while ago,

Thanks, this was the point of my question and lack of understanding. It just doesn't make sense.

and what I got back was the following reply:

Ouch this is painful. You need to figure this out for yourself. There's 2 groups. A whale holds Calls, bought some time ago at a much lower price. Whale then buys enough shares to lift the share price so their Call go in the money. Then executes Calls, and banks the money.

MMs are the other group. They sold those Calls. They don't want to pay out, which is why they quickly move the SP back to the level the benefits them. No resistance to the MM's move at that point because the whale nolonger has an interest in the higher SP. Unlike the whales, MMs have to be there at the end of the week.

Seriously, do your own education. I can't do that for you.

Which also didn't make sense for me. But then again, I have to do my own education because they cannot do that for me, and maybe my IQ is just too low to understand this chain of logic.

Maybe one of the enlightened in this thread, who have done their education, can condescend to give a comprehensible answer to this question.

Thanks,
Max

 

[mongo]

That's a hit-job, and total b.s. The REUTERS 'experts' are the same university researchers that analyzed the Galileo Russel 4680 prototype cell which was built before Jan 2022.

That cell had an anode made with the traditional wet-slurry process. We know that Tesla is using the dry process now in Giga Nevada because their are no 50m long drying ovens installed their, nor the complicated solvent recovery filters. And 4680 production is increasing.

No, instead this is REUTERS recycling their own trash, and getting paid for pushing it out the door on an options expiry Friday, just as the SP hit a peak.

Did you mean Giga Austin? Nevada isn't making 4680s, and if they were they would likely be from Panasonic with their manufacturing process.

Coated electrodes can be shipped to the cell plant. Just like Texas has a separate cathode plant (or is that only materials, not finished rolls?).

 

[NicoV]

My guess is “technical issues” is lack of natural gas for industrial processes. Germany is rightly prioritizing natural gas for home heating and is curtailing its use for manufacturing. Also, natural gas and energy is now very expensive in Germany. It could very well be cheaper to import batteries now into Germany rather than make them there. Honestly, I am wondering when the next shoe will drop and Tela has to curtail car manufacturing due to local manufactured inputs being hard to get.

Not really.....

Natural Gas Prices In Europe Fall To A Three-Month Low | OilPrice.com

Natural gas prices in Europe fell to a three-month low on Monday thanks to mild weather and strong LNG imports

oilprice.com

It is cheaper for Berlin to operate today than it was 3 months ago. If this winter Europe is mild, then Germany and the rest of Europe will have actually overstocked on natural gas, sending the price of natural gas plummeting.

And natural gas kept going down this week.
Currently at 140 euro, another 10% down this week: ICE Futures and Options

 

[GOVA]

This all seems fishy to me now. This - being the buyback. Open letters from WS tools, all of the articles promoting it. Maybe they want to set a trap of some sort.