Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Discoducky]

You meant to say it would increase EPS (fewer shares in the calculations of EPS) and lower P/E quicker correct?

Yes, oh my gosh, yes. What a week it has been, where's my drink!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, close to two years. Dec 7th 2020 TSLA closed at 213.92

Yes, that's the runup to the S&P 500 addition.

 

[Prunesquallor]

If we aren’t above 340 in 2024 I’m going to join occupy wallstreet.

Pizza delivery for me.

 

[Favguy]

If we aren’t above 340 in 2024 I’m going to join occupy wallstreet.

I might join you, and that's if we're not above 340 post next split!

 

[Words of HABIT]

Life is a highway.

Owning TSLA is like driving in the fast lane, except when there is a traffic jam and the fast lane becomes the slowest lane.

Buying TSLA on margin is like getting out of the fast lane to jump into the empty on-ramp lane to get a few cars ahead before pushing back to the fast lane. Sometimes it works out, however sometimes you get pulled over for reckless driving or hit a guardrail in the process. Margin call. Going in the fast lane is never fast enough for some people. They prefer to drive dangerously and put not only themselves in a precarious position, but also negatively affect the buy-and-hold drivers in TSLA. Overall buying on margin results in higher highs and lower lows. TSLA is seeing lower lows due in part to those being margin called today. IMO just as much as Twitter, war and Inflation scares.

What the market doesn't yet understand is that there is an HOV lane to which only Teslas can ride. The market sees a worldwide economic slowdown, war and environmental disasters, and does not understand that demand for Tesla products is not only not droping. Demand for all things Tesla is increasing. How can this be? Simple. It is due to consumers wanting less dependance upon oil, wanting less impact to our environment and ecosytems, together with products of longevity, durability, utilty and safety with cost efficiency that currently only Tesla provides.

It's about time TSLA takes the HOV lane out of this traffic jam. Enjoy the ride.

 

[Ogre]

You sure it's 1-2 years and not longer? Tesla managed to make a gross profit on the freaken roadster! They had positive gross margins on 3k Model S deliveries. Rivian has over a -100% gross margins. I don't think increasing the price can fix this issue. For every dollar they earn, it cost them over 2 dollars to earn it. This is a huge disparity that I don't think operation leverage and economy of scale can fix. There's something really wrong. It seems like they are giving away a 220k car for 100k and need to start taking away complexity asap.

It’s not a $220k truck. It’s an $80k truck it costs them $220k to make.

Nobody would buy it at $220k

 

[lafrisbee]

I'm just lucky that I am too balless an ant to figure out margins.
(I woulda said "too lazy" but I am an ANT.)
So I'm just stuck with plain ol stock.

 

[Drax7]

What nobody is mentioning is TSLA's ability to raise capital. A few calls to people like Ron Baron, bankers, private equity, national wealth funds or insurance companies and we have another 10B in the bank. A share offering is another obvious option. As long as we have great earnings potential (and I'm not worried about losing that) we are not at risk of going bankwupt.

I was/am an investor in "vulture" companies. (BRK and BAM.) They keep tens of Billions on hand for companies that want or need to raise capital. As an example (and not that I would want to) but the Supercharger network could be used as the security for a multi-Billion dollar loan. Or, a minority interest in it could be sold off. These kinds of companies love those kinds of recurring revenue growth models. Buffett could have 100B in your account within twenty-four hours if he liked the terms of a deal.

With that said, my preference would be to state a policy of a minimum cash level (say 20B) and use excess cash to repurchase shares opportunistically. Simple and low risk with a good expected outcome.

Either way, I trust Elon to do the right thing.

Tesla raising capital, forget about it.
They generate gobs of capital.

 

[Artful Dodger]

TMC Investors' Roundtable post #370,229 20:26 10/14/2022

"Lodger's Ten Rules of Acquisition": (c) 2022 | 5th Revised Edition

1. Volatility Is Not Risk; a Gelding won't Buck (nor pay out)
2. Market Makers are Not your Friends; It's their Rodeo to Rig
3. Stay Healthy; Watch your Cholesterol & Avoid Margin
4. Stocks Cycle through their Trading Channel; ride your Bike!
5. Often the Best Action is No Action; Take your time to get It right, then Act!
6. When In Doubt, Buy/Sell Half; There are always more Opportunities
7. Don't Overtrade; Especially Short-term Options
8. TSLA has a Seasonal Cycle; Trade against it with LEAPS
9. Ignore the Media; They're Paid to Lie (Look Behind the Curtain)
10. Time is your Friend; Emotion is your Enemy; Math is your Ally

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[ShareLofty]

I've lost my short term optimism and now don't expect any sustained stock price relief until at least the next CPI report next month, when folks seem to think the year over year comps will be more favorable.

if you watched that CNBC interview posted by @juanmedina the guy was pretty emphatic that it will be months if not a year until the CPI catches up to what’s actually happening in real estate and commodities

 

[Drax7]

if you watched that CNBC interview posted by @juanmedina the guy was pretty emphatic that it will be months if not a year until the CPI catches up to what’s actually happening in real estate and commodities

The mkt will figure out the inflation trend way before the geniuses at the fed.

First they print 6 plus trillion dollars to offset a recession, and now they want
to provoke a recession by withdrawing them. What a bunch of clowns we have
running the country.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

At this point, it feels like TSLA is priced for
- no more sales in China for 10 years
- Elon having to sell $500B worth of TSLA in next two weeks for the Twitter deal
- Cybertruck won't ship until 2039
- Margins at -10%

 

[traxila]

What makes no sense, is that IF Elon had to sell shares for Twitter, he would sell a few $ Billion worth. TSLA has lost over $200Billion in value in the last month.

Yeah but whenever he sells, that is the pivot. Until then they keep shorting because he is going to sell and everyone knows so they don’t buy and they wait.

He had the right idea with those last sells, the ‘just in case’ ones. He should have hammered for another 10 billion and as much as it would have sucked then, we would be done with it.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I want it to smell like COVID drop as far as TSLA is concerned, but they are not about to cut interest rates to zero and pour seven trillion into the economy. Quite the opposite. I just want the TWTR overhang to go away and earnings to arrive.

Would be a nice present this weekend for EM to clarify all things TWTR. Then Monday would be a blast. This is what is known as wishful thinking.

The longer it drags on, the worse the TWTR deal is for TSLA shareholders - in my mind it ranks up there as one of Elon's biggest missteps ever.

Also, saw this in an article today - worth chewing on:

Hang in there folks.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Ants are human. I bought "all-in" at the end of December 2019 hoping to double my money in 3-5 years. And I am despondent that it has increased to the level it has now. Only +6X. And I feel sick I tell ya.

You've gotta go back to Spring 2019 to find a time when TSLA was oversold as much (and for as long) as it is now. Not a time that I like to remember...

 

[Gigapress]

Nice analysis on the Tesla Semi from Jason at Engineering Explained. Generally gets the same numbers as we have which is a good sign.

On his cost comparison he is not accounting for the IRA battery and commercial clean vehicle subsidies, so towards the end when he says at a pessimistic $0.50/kWh charging price that the Tesla would lose to diesel, bear in mind that’d be only for energy costs. He also doesn’t account for differences in maintenance and repair costs or time-value of money discounting, and does not estimate for city driving where the advantages of electric are much stronger vs diesel due to regen braking and faster acceleration. I think his battery energy density estimate is conservative because he’s not looking at 4680s and doesn’t consider any potential mass-saving benefits from making the pack structural.

Lots of healthy and pretty well-informed discussion in the video comment section.

Overall a good summary of the truck and its capabilities from an independent third party.

 

[Krugerrand]

Stop hating on me, I no longer am in the 1% club /s

Where do the wall street cats go for therapy

 

[MC3OZ]

Nice analysis on the Tesla Semi from Jason at Engineering Explained. Generally gets the same numbers as we have which is a good sign.

On his cost comparison he is not accounting for the IRA battery and commercial clean vehicle subsidies, so towards the end when he says at a pessimistic $0.50/kWh charging price that the Tesla would lose to diesel, bear in mind that’d be only for energy costs. He also doesn’t account for differences in maintenance and repair costs or time-value of money discounting, and does not estimate for city driving where the advantages of electric are much stronger vs diesel due to regen braking and faster acceleration. I think his battery energy density estimate is conservative because he’s not looking at 4680s and doesn’t consider any potential mass-saving benefits from making the pack structural.

Lots of healthy and pretty well-informed discussion in the video comment section.

Overall a good summary of the truck and its capabilities from an independent third party.

Elon promised $0.07/kWh at the Semi reveal, I had no idea inflation was that bad

 

[lafrisbee]

You've gotta go back to Spring 2019 to find a time when TSLA was oversold as much (and for as long) as it is now. Not a time that I like to remember...

View attachment 863964

So what?
'splain it to an ant

 

[OrthoSurg]

Unfortunately, I am getting margin calls. Not for shares bought on margin, but because of Bull options I wrote in January. I used $12Million out of $22Million Margin available. Didn't think we would drop 50% and be at a lower SP than when TSLA was added to the S&P (before Shanghai, Berlin, Austin, 2Million/year run rate, record profits, etc, etc). My fault, but I didn't think the crooks on WS could get the SP this low.....

I thought I was joking when I told my brother in law 1 year ago: « If you want to start to invest in the stock market you have to be ready to lose 50% the month after you invested the money on a stock. »
little did I know it was an advice to myself 1 year later.

We are so oversold I feel like we only need one good catalyst, one positive tweet, one big fund buying and buyers will come back and chip in.