Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dano-oly]

George sums up my feelings on flawed Elon:

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw

 

[Discoducky]

George sums up my feelings on flawed Elon:

“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world; the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.” – George Bernard Shaw

I agree, but this needs to go in the appropriate thread. -Things I would say if I were a mod.

 

[InTheMiddle]

Without “showing my work”, I’ll go on record with $22.3B, 28.1% Auto GM, and $1.075 non-GAAP…and will hope to be very, very, very wrong…

From looking at the table so far, it seems most on this board are indeed expecting me to be "very, very, very wrong" ... gives me hope for a huge upside surprise, as I am the LOWEST estimated EPS other than the "traditional" estimate. Perhaps I should convert 10-20k shares to LEAPS based on all the smart people here estimating much higher EPS?

 

[NicoV]

FWIW, Bloomberg has EPS at 1.011, and EPS (GAAP) at 1.049

With 4 digits precision it must be very accurate.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thinking about buying some lotto options for 10/28 .....

But then I realize that the pretty girl smiling at me is actually a mirage, and it's a fat guy with a cigar in a speedo.

Here's the main reason I do not trade Options. Whenever Market Makers interject themselves between the Company (Tesla) and the Customer (Retail), they effectively have created a hinged pendulum. That's an inherently chaotic system, unstable, unpredictable, and subject to wild swings. 10/28 is just 1 week of cushion for the SP to settle down.

Shirley you know by now that MMs aren't even required to report their FTDs for 13 days? And there's no consequences if they don't? And they make take more $$$ that way? IMO, that's handing them your wallet ****. MMs will do whatever they need to do to steal your money.

Options make that easy for MMs (they are the House). Shares makes that harder (you are the Boss).

Good luck!

 

[Nathan]

Biden awards $2.8 billion for projects to boost electric vehicle battery manufacturing

The funding is part of the administration's broader push to transition the U.S. away from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles.

www.cnbc.com

Wonder if Tesla will qualify for any of these projects?

 

[MABMAB]

The voice of the people matter

 

[traxila]

From looking at the table so far, it seems most on this board are indeed expecting me to be "very, very, very wrong" ... gives me hope for a huge upside surprise, as I am the LOWEST estimated EPS other than the "traditional" estimate. Perhaps I should convert 10-20k shares to LEAPS based on all the smart people here estimating much higher EPS?

I have thought the same but I have been beaten senseless financially by the bears' and the markets' ability to spin good to great results as disastrous.

Difference this time is TSLA has been cut in half from ATHs and the overvaluation arguments ring much more hollow. The interest rate environment will continue to suck for at least three more months (and I do not mean to expect a pivot, only a possibel pause in hikes).

I caution you that these that Tesla has never has so many vehicles in inventory / transit at the EOQ and although people much smarter than me are confident as to how this will show up in the EOQ numbers, no one is 100% certain.

There are many reasons to expect that the finances this Q will be record and spectacular, from the record deliveries to the higher prices Tesla has been charging finally filtering through the queue. And of course, macros notwithstanding, next Q should be a record spectacular once again. One would imagine that purchasing LEAPs somewhat ITM would be home runs from this level in two years and DITM should be very nice conservative leverage plays.

But, of course, this is not an advice

 

[WattsHappening]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582778449583693836

???

I haven’t looked this up so I have no idea to what he is referring. But I take it as a positive sign that he is Tweeting obscure tweets today.

EDIT: book published in 1709 about right of kings and rights of people. Like I said, obscure.

 

[JRP3]

Biden awards $2.8 billion for projects to boost electric vehicle battery manufacturing

The funding is part of the administration's broader push to transition the U.S. away from gas-powered cars to electric vehicles.

www.cnbc.com

Wonder if Tesla will qualify for any of these projects?

Not on the list of battery material suppliers.

 

[Skryll]

The voice of the people matter

Which is why Babel was such a big catastrophy

 

[Featsbeyond50]

From looking at the table so far, it seems most on this board are indeed expecting me to be "very, very, very wrong" ... gives me hope for a huge upside surprise, as I am the LOWEST estimated EPS other than the "traditional" estimate. Perhaps I should convert 10-20k shares to LEAPS based on all the smart people here estimating much higher EPS?

We are probably going to have n earnings beat, but before placing bets, everyone should keep in mind we are also probably going to fall short of 50% growth and that's what the market will focus on.

We are also in a bear market.

 

[Ohmster]

What utter rubbish. Phone as Key works off BT. Not Wi-Fi.

'It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia' actor said Tesla 'lost a customer' after his car was stuck in a parking garage for days when his key fob broke

"You guys lost a customer today. I've been a Tesla customer for 10 years," Glenn Howerton said he told a Tesla salesperson during the incident.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[Krugerrand]

I've seen various media outlets reporting that expected EPS is anywhere from $1 to $1.02...so nobody can even get the expected number straight.

Fortunately it should be a decent beat regardless of the actual expected EPS. Also seeing several reports that "demand is in focus" for today's results. So I definitely hope Elon & team give a clear response to the demand concern tonight, and that response is "demand continues to not be a problem".

I saw those headlines and immediately thought; going to be richer. ‍

That that continues to come up, over and over and over again is a real testament to human stupidity or shenanigans depending on who’s responsible.

 

[traxila]

Here is Mordor's take on the ER:

Tesla Set to Report Third-Quarter Earnings as Growth Concerns Emerge

Tesla is expected to report near-record quarterly profit, but recent stumbles and economic uncertainty have sparked concern on Wall Street about its ability to hit its annual growth target.

www.wsj.com

The comments below are surprisingly positive!

 

[InTheMiddle]

There are many reasons to expect that the finances this Q will be record and spectacular, from the record deliveries to the higher prices Tesla has been charging finally filtering through the queue. And of course, macros notwithstanding, next Q should be a record spectacular once again.

Agreed - although I consider my estimated numbers to be both “record and spectacular” and a quarter that any TSLA shareholder should be very proud of. However, it is clear that the TMC expectations are far, far greater…I’d say the average estimates in the spreadsheet are roughly what I’m expecting for Q4, just more than what I think Q3 will land at. Most puzzling to me are the entries expecting lower revenue but higher EPS, as I don’t see my expenses estimates being *that* far off.

 

[Featsbeyond50]

Here's the main reason I do not trade Options. Whenever Market Makers interject themselves between the Company (Tesla) and the Customer (Retail), they effectively have created a hinged pendulum. That's an inherently chaotic system, unstable, unpredictable, and subject to wild swings. 10/28 is just 1 week of cushion for the SP to settle down.

Shirley you know by now that MMs aren't even required to report their FTDs for 13 days? And there's no consequences if they don't? And they make take more $$$ that way? IMO, that's handing them your wallet ****. MMs will do whatever they need to do to steal your money.

Options make that easy for MMs (they are the House). Shares makes that harder (you are the Boss).

Good luck!

This almost makes me feel less dumb that I don't understand options.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I'd like to think that if Tesla falls short of 50% this year because of the shutdowns, that the market would be forgiving of that. But you never know. Guidance for next year seems more important.

 

[MTBEndodontist]

TMC quarterly estimates spreadsheet is filling up! Thank you @Gigapress !

Hoping it is locked at the bell today and then kept for eternity as a historical record of Tesla's quest to rule the galaxy...err...sustainable energy I mean

TeslaMotorsClub Investor Casual Quarterly Estimates Compilation

Q3 '22 TMC Quarterly Estimates - 2022 Q3,. .,Summary Statistics <a href="https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/7122581/">Gigapress' post in TMC</a> TMC Username,Revenue,Auto Gross Margin Excl ZEV Creds,GAAP Earnings per Share,Non-GAAP Earnings per Share,Comment,Revenue,Auto Gross Margin Excl ZEV...

docs.google.com

Looking at these estimates, sometimes I wonder if we are contributing to an earnings "miss". I fear the ramping of two factories with new technologies may be a bigger hit than we anticipate. I am glad to be wrong =).

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What utter rubbish. Phone as Key works off BT. Not Wi-Fi.

'It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia' actor said Tesla 'lost a customer' after his car was stuck in a parking garage for days when his key fob broke

"You guys lost a customer today. I've been a Tesla customer for 10 years," Glenn Howerton said he told a Tesla salesperson during the incident.

www.businessinsider.com

I always laugh at these hot takes.........have fun dealing with the charging network for a non-Tesla EV buddy