...so we're holding ourselves to the standard of Ford and GM now? Hope we can do better than that...
To me, "FSD" is not financially meaningful until it can either (a) robotaxi or (b) enable people to move around in cars while distracted/asleep. You see a lot of anecdotal evidence even here/reddit on FSD's pitfalls, and objective data from FSD aggregation sites on interventions. It's just not there. Thankfully Tesla's valuation doesn't depend on it, but there is real potential that it becomes a financial liability (and class action lawsuit risk) if it doesn't hit that level by the end of this decade.
Do I think that will happen? No. I think Tesla undergoes some slipperly slope where they gradually introduce new hardware (like to cameras or HW4) and makes people pay for those upgrades from previous cars for "enhanced FSD." That's why their terms and conditions around FSD changed when the SR+ was released (around the time I bought my Model 3) for greater legal liability protection.
I also think worst case scenario robotaxi can be introduced in geo-fenced neighborhood suberban areas and still make an absolute financial killing.
It'll be interesting to see what happens with the robotaxi/cheaper car platform, order of operations, and what those end products actually become. That'll reveal a lot.
I am an OG 100% safety score beta tester.
I have put 13 months and 22k miles on Beta and use it exclusively.
I have gone through every upgrade and there are usually 2 steps forward and 1 step back. About 3 months ago the changes became more like 2 steps forward 1/2 step back.
My commute is 57 miles each way. 50% Fsd and 50% NOA. I have been tracking interventions and disengagements since jump. At first they were 7 to 8 each way from home to work or vice versa. (Usually 1 or 2 safety related) Today, 1 sometimes 2 interventions. Those 1 and 2 are no longer safety related, they are me pushing the accelerator to speed up after a stop sign or speed up on unprotected left turns out of courtesy for a driver behind me.
My advice to anyone speculating, if you haven't been personally using it, don't try to comment on it. Taking 1 or 2 or 3 drives doesn't suffice. Watching YT videos of others also doesn't depict it accurately.
Most opinions on Fsd beta are like some guy teaching self defense in a book that has never been in a fist fight in real life, or like Gordo's 1 year price targets.
It's happening now, everyday and every new release. We are very close to being safer than most drivers. Beta doesn't care about texting, missed calls, getting sleepy, etc.
It has 8 cameras watching non stop with no distractions.
I feel 100% safer with it driving instead of my wife... which isn't a Herculean feat, but she knows it, hence hates my car.
As far as regulators go, I won't bother speculating, but can use my imagination.
HODL, because when it goes out to all fsd cars, start planning your retirement.