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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If Tesla can sell every car they can produce for the foreseeable future, as Elon claimed in the call, then there should not be any need to lower prices (unless Elon is taking lowered prices into account and not telling us).
IIRC Elon or Zack mentioned something about ”… and maintain healthy (or maybe increasing?) operating margins/free cash flow”, which I took to indicate that if they do need to lower prices, they’ll still do very well.
 
By the way, I didn't hear the words "dry battery electrode" anytime. While the 4680 has at least one electrode using that technology (according to The Limiting Factor YouTube Channel), there is nothing preventing its use in 2170 form factor cells. My point is Tesla no doubt has quite the number of technologies up their sleeve to wring out costs from battery technology going forward. We've only seen the tip of the iceberg so far. It'll keep getting better and better.
I remember watching videos speculating about a maxwell acquisition in 2018. Oof it’s been awhile. Puts it into perspective. Hope the dry battery electrode stuff pans out.
 
Yep, and now you know that even with Tesla speed, moving from lab to production takes at least five years.
Which makes me laugh when we see these miracle battery tech news articles, so under some conditions some theory, theres a small chance this battery can do x y or z...

No talk about turning it into a mass produced volume product, as someone (cant remember who) once said production is hard..
 
Yep, and now you know that even with Tesla speed, moving from lab to production takes at least five years.
They might also have more luck with a single-crystal NMC cathode, or an iron based cathode, from memory, the cathode was the problem.

That was the other interesting part of the call, some talk about sourcing raw materials for iron based cathodes.

Elon typically comments on "Manganese", but never mentions Manganese as over the line.

From my perspective, Elon's comments about "Manganese" are interesting.

EDIT: The exact quote was along the lines of "we are aggressively sourcing raw materials for iron cathodes, and we will have more to say about that later".

IMO possibly a few factory to make iron based cells mainly for energy storage?
 
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Pretty sure Musk purposely not addressing if he needs to sell more for Twitter in hoping people will front run him so he can buy back in for peanuts. His silence on the matter and people selling like crazy after his Twitter offer announcement is doing wonders for him. He may end up close to the same number of shares prior to the sell for twiiter if the drop keeps going.
Ah 3D chess after all. Take that, haters😂
 
Which makes me laugh when we see these miracle battery tech news articles, so under some conditions some theory, theres a small chance this battery can do x y or z...

No talk about turning it into a mass produced volume product, as someone (cant remember who) once said production is hard..

Absolutely. But did you guys see what the Biden admin did today? They showered $50M+++ grants on each of these very early stage battery technology companies. Most of these companies aren't going to pan out and be economical. Still, it isn't a bad way of supercharging advanced battery research.

PDF write up on each company and how much $$ they each got: https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2022-10/DOE BIL Battery FOA-2678 Selectee Fact Sheets - 1_2.pdf

Map:

1666231589855.png
 
...so we're holding ourselves to the standard of Ford and GM now? Hope we can do better than that...

To me, "FSD" is not financially meaningful until it can either (a) robotaxi or (b) enable people to move around in cars while distracted/asleep. You see a lot of anecdotal evidence even here/reddit on FSD's pitfalls, and objective data from FSD aggregation sites on interventions. It's just not there. Thankfully Tesla's valuation doesn't depend on it, but there is real potential that it becomes a financial liability (and class action lawsuit risk) if it doesn't hit that level by the end of this decade.

Do I think that will happen? No. I think Tesla undergoes some slipperly slope where they gradually introduce new hardware (like to cameras or HW4) and makes people pay for those upgrades from previous cars for "enhanced FSD." That's why their terms and conditions around FSD changed when the SR+ was released (around the time I bought my Model 3) for greater legal liability protection.

I also think worst case scenario robotaxi can be introduced in geo-fenced neighborhood suberban areas and still make an absolute financial killing.

It'll be interesting to see what happens with the robotaxi/cheaper car platform, order of operations, and what those end products actually become. That'll reveal a lot.
I am an OG 100% safety score beta tester.
I have put 13 months and 22k miles on Beta and use it exclusively.
I have gone through every upgrade and there are usually 2 steps forward and 1 step back. About 3 months ago the changes became more like 2 steps forward 1/2 step back.
My commute is 57 miles each way. 50% Fsd and 50% NOA. I have been tracking interventions and disengagements since jump. At first they were 7 to 8 each way from home to work or vice versa. (Usually 1 or 2 safety related) Today, 1 sometimes 2 interventions. Those 1 and 2 are no longer safety related, they are me pushing the accelerator to speed up after a stop sign or speed up on unprotected left turns out of courtesy for a driver behind me.
My advice to anyone speculating, if you haven't been personally using it, don't try to comment on it. Taking 1 or 2 or 3 drives doesn't suffice. Watching YT videos of others also doesn't depict it accurately.
Most opinions on Fsd beta are like some guy teaching self defense in a book that has never been in a fist fight in real life, or like Gordo's 1 year price targets.
It's happening now, everyday and every new release. We are very close to being safer than most drivers. Beta doesn't care about texting, missed calls, getting sleepy, etc.
It has 8 cameras watching non stop with no distractions.
I feel 100% safer with it driving instead of my wife... which isn't a Herculean feat, but she knows it, hence hates my car.
As far as regulators go, I won't bother speculating, but can use my imagination.
HODL, because when it goes out to all fsd cars, start planning your retirement.
 
Aside from the Cab, it doesn't seem like a complex vehicle to build.

As for the Cab itself, the weight of the Cab and the build complexity, depend entirely on the raw materials, and the construction process.

They are intending to ramp to 40K? by end of 2024, that is probably in Nevada. We don't know if any public plans to build the Semi elsewhere.

We know close to nothing about how the Semis are being built, and the level of automation.

Early in all production ramps lower volume production is expensive, and can be loss making.
Would be great to have some intel on Giga Nevada, calling out all Nevada drone operators...
 
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I feel 100% safer with it driving instead of my wife... which isn't a Herculean feat, but she knows it, hence hates my car.

I feel your pain. My wife's ICE (Infiniti QX80 - our Rivian SUV can't come soon enough) battery died yesterday, so she used my Model X while I swapped out the lead acid battery (ouch, my aching back).

My safety score!! "You know, your car keeps beeping at me [Forward Collision Detect] when I KNOW there isn't a real problem."
 
I feel your pain. My wife's ICE (Infiniti QX80 - our Rivian SUV can't come soon enough) battery died yesterday, so she used my Model X while I swapped out the lead acid battery (ouch, my aching back).

My safety score!! "You know, your car keeps beeping at me [Forward Collision Detect] when I KNOW there isn't a real problem."
Dude! That sucks. FSD beta removes all of the BS! I’m so happy to have it and no naggy safety score. That’s a bogus system vs what FSD beta sees. Had 60 averages for so long 😂
 
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