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Mordor’s headline is predictable. The rest of the article is pretty much quotes and I think exciting.


It is much worse on the home page with the headline truncated:


Tesla Cuts Vehicle-Delivery Target

The article is actually pretty balanced and factual.

Editors usually write the headline, not the author. Makes one wonder . . .
 
What I remember as good news from the earnings call:-
  • Next Gen platform cost savings.
  • Semi production
  • 4680 ramp progress
  • Lithium processing pant, cathode plant progress.
  • Sourcing iron cathode raw materials
  • Elon (not surprisingly) still confident on FSD.
  • Aiming for 1 TWh of cell production in the US.
  • Austin and Berlin ramp to have reducing impact on margins.
  • Production, (but not deliveries) can hit the 50% growth target.
  • Paying down debt, free cash flow growth, share buy back likely.
  • Even with a recession in 2023 unlikely to need to cut back on spending.
  • Deflation possible in 2023
  • And (I bet I have missed a few things.)
Only wall street can spin this list as a negative.
 
Episode 2 of the "The Elon Musk Show" is out. Something one of his ex workers said was pretty amazing.

"Humanity can do impossible things and they are only impossible until somebody pulls them off. Elon is never satisfied. He is an incredible gift to the world. He is the best leader on the planet. I would take the bad with the good. His brain is fundamentally more efficient"

"If he asks me to jump I'm going to ask him how high."

 
Can someone please point me out to comparative numbers to other autos - sales, revenue, profit margin, EPS for 2022 ?
I have need to provide some context on how the rest of the industry has faired this year, to some trolls (aka my friends) who are singing the sky is falling on Tesla because they missed revenue by 0.5%.
Don’t waste your time. 7 years of telling my friends what a crazy company tesla is and even after they know how well I’ve done investing in it they still just get off on sending me *sugar* like recall notices for the backup camera.

It’s not even FUD anymore. Being pro or anti tesla is like it’s own political thing now. And many people just hate on musk for his Twitter persona, even though they don’t actually see it themselves and just read about it on Reddit.
 
Can someone please point me out to comparative numbers to other autos - sales, revenue, profit margin, EPS for 2022 ?

I have a need to provide some context on how the rest of the industry has faired this year, to some trolls (aka my friends) who are singing the sky is falling on Tesla because they missed revenue by 0.5%.
This might help, click on the different tabs to change your view.

 
Recap of important forward-looking stuff

  • Stock buyback would be limited to $5-10B or so, no promises of it happening at all, and it wouldn’t happen until sometime next year.
    • My concern in recent weeks was that a buyback of this magnitude would happen in Q4.
    • Tesla's small remaining worst-case-scenario liquidity risk will be much lower in another few more months once Berlin and Texas are producing like 5k+ per week and making good cash flow that could financially support the rest of the business in a pinch, and we'll have several billion $$ more cash & equivalents on hand by then as well.
    • I am okay with this plan, especially since Elon said the team debated the issue extensively so it sounds like they're not rushing into this decision rashly, and they have better visibility of the finances and risk profile than I can have as an outsider.

  • Lack of any evidence of March/April price increases having come into effect in Q3 means that spring is now wound tighter for Q4 and Q1 than I had been expecting
    • Delivery estimate windows at the time were roughly Sep-Jan for most models
    • Many people have reported delays since then
    • Estimated timing points toward Q4 having the majority of the impact, maybe $3k or so, though exact timing still remains uncertain and probably impossible to predict without insider information on order queues and fulfillment prioritization

  • Semi deliveries coming on December 1st
    • Again confirmation that there'll be no cargo mass capacity penalty relative to diesel
      • though unclear if they mean at 80k lbs gross weight or 82k lbs
    • Aiming for 50k units in 2024
    • Not using 4680s

  • Demand still strong
    • Brushed off questions about potential price cuts and just said they'll sell everything
    • Will not reduce production growth even if recession
    • "real opportunity...to press forward in the most aggressive way" -Zach

  • Delivery wave finally going to end for real and this sawtooth nonsense will stop:
1666231217604.png

  • Confirmation that IR Act eligibility requirements will be met

  • Material and logistics costs trending down for 2023 but likely stable for Q4; Q3 was probably the overall peak.
    • Implies that avg COGS per car of $39.2k is going to come down substantially in Q1 as Berlin & Texas are in volume production at the same time as material and shipping costs decline

  • Cybertruck still on track for mid-2023 initial deliveries
    • Beta trial production is ongoing right now
    • They are really going to extreme lengths to hide the fraud and keep this charade going

  • Next-gen vehicle actually in work again
    • Last we had heard, it had been postponed indefinitely
    • They are pretty much done designing Cybertruck, Semi
    • Twice as many vehicles for same amount of work as Y; COGS would be around $17k and gross margin about 32% if $25k ASP

  • "We have no indication whatsoever that we will have to cut our production in Germany" [due to energy shortages/the war] - Elon. Backup plans in place for Tesla and suppliers.

  • Elon sees path to ~$5T valuation

  • 4680 ramp still growing exponentially and progress expected to continue
    • "going well", "looking good", "gonna be a very major factor"
    • Cycle time and yield dramatically improving
    • Still on original plan to implement Battery Day tech over time until 2026
    • No longer optimizing for ramp speed like in Q3 and switching to cost optimization, indicating adequate supply of other non-4680 cells
      • "We don't anticipate this [4680 supply] being any limiting factor for the Cybertruck or anything else"
    • $70/kWh expectation at cell level (unsubsidized) in the long term
      • Presumably for high-nickel cells, not iron which should be substantially lower

  • "Extremely confident in a great Q4"
 
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No. Neither plaid nor semi was ever planned to use 4680, that was only in the fevered imagination of some forum members.



No, the semi was never planned on having 4680s, see above.



The 4680 is meant for structural battery packs. Can you even make a semi with a structural battery pack? I don't know, but Tesla is learning how to make structural packs on the Model Y. When they have figured out all the issues, and optimized it a lot, then they'll start working on other platforms, but my bet would be to apply it to a high volume car next, like the Model 3 or Model 2.

I would suggest that one USE of the 4680 is for model-y shaped structural pack, but the expected cost savings of the cell are useful in a much wider set of possible applications. Other vendors are event making 4680 dimension cells outside Tesla use - it doesn't HAVE to be structural - it has the option to do so.

I pretty darn sure they were counting on 4680 for the Cyber Truck, and it was never clear on the Semi but given the size of it's pack the desire for cost savings on cells and assembly is an obvious win.
 
Oh really? Because I pointed out some of these flaws with an informed Reddit user's post HERE many months ago which I was then absolutely downvoted to hell and criticized from many members, including @The Accountant . But when we hear anecdotal bull stories (or EPS estimates) everyone eats that *sugar* up right?

Datapoints are useful, not just the ones that meet your confirmation biases. And it's sad that I have to wait until Elon himself says it on a call before people start to recognize those opinions.

I will also say I know someone on the Tesla AI team and did work for a major VC firm in AI. And 80% of my downvotes come from my AI comments because it's not full-on bull lol.
Did you read any of that criticism in June? I remember being sick with COVID at the time and reading that "informed Reddit user's" post history while I was too tired to do much else. This was mine and @The Accountant 's criticism and it still seems pretty reasonable.

In fact, with the benefit of witnessing 4 more months of major FSD progress as well as what was shown on AI Day, u/whydoesthisitch's claims are even more obviously ludicrous and in some cases demonstrably false, like the supposed 1-meter resolution on voxels.

I read through all of those criticisms from Reddit user u/whydoesthisitch. The comment history does not reflect mere technical criticism.

The user explicitly asserts that FSD is a fraudulent scam which Tesla has no intention of ever making into autonomous driving software, and that anyone who thinks otherwise is in the "cult". To be clear, they're saying not just that Tesla's approach will fail, but that Tesla isn't even trying to make it succeed at anything other than marketing.

Other wild claims include that:
  • "Dojo is nothing. They haven't even built it, and the theoretical specs they gave are already years behind the leading AI training chips. And that's ignoring the fact that they still need an interconnect and a compiler. It simply doesn't make any sense why Tesla would actually build this thing, and I'm confident they never will."
  • FSD is "extremely rudimentary" and college students could make software with better self-driving performance in 2007
  • Tesla collects a "tiny amount" of data from customer cars
  • The data collected in not in a format useful for training their model anyway
    • "Not even remotely suitable for training deep learning models"
  • Even if the data were useful, Tesla has no backend infrastructure for using customer data
  • "The variety and quality of sensor data collected by more advanced cars used by Waymo, Cruise, Nvidia, Mobileye and others is far more useful for actual training."
  • "Tesla's claimed data advantage simply doesn't exist. Of actual usable training data, Tesla has far less than other companies in the field."
  • Most of the AI industry views Tesla as a fraud and "Whenever one of our models vastly underperforms, or a test doesn't go as planned, people will all say to each other, 'at least we aren't Tesla.'"
  • Tesla is "corner cutting in terms of ... processing hardware" (FSD computer)
  • Tesla "doesn't follow standard design principles of iterating internally before a wider release"
  • Las Vegas Convention Center Loop is less safe than subways
  • Elon is not an engineer
  • The cameras and hydranet Tesla is using can't possibly have resolution precision better than 1 meter for position and depth measurements with the available processing power

This person also claims to have recently received a job offer from Tesla but turned it down. How did they get a job offer? If this is how they feel about Tesla, surely they didn't apply. Is it really likely that Tesla would have sent them a job offer without applying despite clearly disagreeing with Tesla's approach? They further claim to know multiple AI engineers within Tesla who are saying they know the system won't work and are being micromanaged into working on a project they don't believe in while getting paid half what they could get elsewhere. This too makes no sense. Why aren't these supposed employees leaving to work for another company?

The fact that this account posts on r/RealTesla is not really a good sign of their critical thinking skills either. That's not a place where legitimate, well-reasoned criticism of Tesla can be found.
What I was trying to imply is that Jerome Powell is not going to debate some random guy (me) from a TMC site.
I don't see why James Douma would want to debate some person from reddit (doesn't help that his reddit handle is "whydoesthisitch" :))

Also - some people are not interested in debating. It often comes down to who shouts louder (a la Gordon Johnson).
I have been asked by two well-known youtubers to come onto their channel for an interview. I have declined as I don't think i have more to add than what I have added here on this site. If they had asked me to come on to the site to debate someone, I would certainly decline. I am not interested in debating anyone. Not because I would be afraid my position would lose, but because I don't want to expend the energy to break down the other position. I would want to tell my story. I am open to listening to the counter argument but I don't want to debate it. Listen I will and open to adjusting my thinking.
Although I aced the CPA exam, I was never on the debate team.
 
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This might help, click on the different tabs to change your view.

Thanks for that link. But more like the growth (or decline) for 2022 (Q1 thru Q3) for legacy Autos compared to Tesla is the real story that needs to be told to shut these guys. That site isn't much helpful in that.

The numbers quoted there doesn't make sense to me. That site quotes Tesla revenue for the last 4 quarters ending Q2, 2022 with $10.91B. But the numbers we got today for Q3 alone is $21.45B. What am I missing?
 
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Thanks for that link. But more like the growth (or decline) for 2022 (Q1 thru Q3) for legacy Autos compared to Tesla is the real story that needs to be told to shut these guys. That site isn't much helpful in that.
Macrotrends is easy to use and has charts for most major companies, especially US-based companies.

For example: