Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Nasdaq 100 Dec 22 (NQ=F)​

CME Delayed Price. Currency in USD

11,078.25 -75.00 (-0.67%)
As of 12:56AM EDT. Market open.

 

[WattsHappening]

I recall yesterday’s discussion about whether Elon was done selling. Those of you who were convinced he was, are you still convinced?

I was not convinced then, and I’m even less convinced now.

It’s clear to me this is going to remain a lingering anchor on TSLA until Elon confirms, one way or another.

 

[Mike Smith]

BMW CEO says banning gas vehicles would run the risk of poor people not having access to affordable cars like BMWs...

BMW chief warns against setting gas-powered phase-out date

Setting a date to phase out gas-powered vehicles could remove "cheap cars" from the market, putting ownership out of reach for many, and be politically dangerous, the board chair of German automaker BMW Oliver Zipse said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

I recall yesterday’s discussion about whether Elon was done selling. Those of you who were convinced he was, are you still convinced?

I was not convinced then, and I’m even less convinced now.

It’s clear to me this is going to remain a lingering anchor on TSLA until Elon confirms, one way or another.

Which will have a bigger effect on the stock price tomorrow: Twitter overhang or share buyback overhang?

 

[betstarship]

So... $21B Q3 revenue gives Tesla a $84B annual run-rate.

In q4, they'll most likely have a $100B revenue annualized run-rate.

 

[Gigapress]

I figured out why Energy revenue didn't increase much. I had been intuitively overestimating the impact of a GWh of extra battery sales. It looks like most of the cost structure for Energy is on the solar side for now.

	Energy Generation and Storage Rev	Energy Gen and Store Cost	Solar Deployed (MW)	Storage Deployed (MWh)
Q2	$ 866	$ (769)	106	1133
Q3	$ 1,117	$ (1,013)	94	2100
QoQ % Change	29%	32%	-11%	85%

Based on the past four quarters of data, it looks like Tesla earns revenue in the vicinity of $5/MW on solar (probably so high because of Solar Roof) and $300k/MWh for storage. These estimates are consistent with the results of all of the past four quarters.

	Actual Energy Generation and Storage Rev	Estimated Rev with $5/MW and $300/GWh	Solar Deployed (MW)	Storage Deployed (MWh)
Q4	$ 688	$ 718	85	978
Q1	$ 616	$ 494	48	846
Q2	$ 866	$ 870	106	1133
Q3	$ 1,117	$ 1,100	94	2100

The ~$50k/MWh IR Act clean energy subsidy is therefore going to add roughly 20% to gross margin on stationary storage sold in the USA, which will push it from slightly better than breakeven to roughly 20-30% gross margin. It's a good time for Lathrop to start ramping!

 

[Runarbt]

Thanks for that link. But more like the growth (or decline) for 2022 (Q1 thru Q3) for legacy Autos compared to Tesla is the real story that needs to be told to shut these guys. That site isn't much helpful in that.

The numbers quoted there doesn't make sense to me. That site quotes Tesla revenue for the last 4 quarters ending Q2, 2022 with $10.91B. But the numbers we got today for Q3 alone is $21.45B. What am I missing?

https://cleantechnica.com/files/2022/04/2022-US-auto-sales-q1-2022-vs-q1-2021-CleanTechnica-chart.png

 

[Artful Dodger]

find me a 500mile long hill.

Southern Alps, Nelson to Milford Sound! (on a push bike)

Kia Ora!

 

[Fred42]

BMW CEO says banning gas vehicles would run the risk of poor people not having access to affordable cars like BMWs...

BMW chief warns against setting gas-powered phase-out date

Setting a date to phase out gas-powered vehicles could remove "cheap cars" from the market, putting ownership out of reach for many, and be politically dangerous, the board chair of German automaker BMW Oliver Zipse said on Wednesday.

www.reuters.com

I wish Tesla would cancel the Roadster. It's an unproductive use of resources, and it reinforces the image of Teslas as vehicles for the elite. (I was glad to learn yesterday that Tesla is again working on a smaller, cheaper vehicle.)

I have similar concern about the Celestiq, but it's not quite as bad in this respect because GM also talks about moderately priced Chevrolet EV's, and Cadillacs aren't supposed to be meant for the proles.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Believe it!

~25% CAGR? I believe!

 

[MC3OZ]

I wish Tesla would cancel the Roadster. It's an unproductive use of resources, and it reinforces the image of Teslas as vehicles for the elite. (I was glad to learn yesterday that Tesla is again working on a smaller, cheaper vehicle.)

I have similar concern about the Celestiq, but it's not quite as bad in this respect because GM also talks about moderately priced Chevrolet EV's, and Cadillacs aren't supposed to be meant for the proles.

Why not have vehicles in all segments?

Other car makers sometimes cheat by using a different brand. e.g. Toyota -> Lexus.

But overall I think consumers are smart enough to not get confused and to shop for vehicles relevant to their budget and needs.

We could not describe the Roadster as "high priority", it is more accurate to describe it as "lowest priority'.

To be clear, when there is a resources clash, the cheaper next gen vehicles should have priority, because they are more important, a van is also important.

As discussed a day or so ago, having "brand appeal" means consumer will pay a bit more for all cars in the range adding to margin.
A Roadster adds to "brand appeal" in a way in which expensive advertising can not.

The cheapest compact Tesla, and the Roadster are all part of the same tribe, that compact Tesla is "up market' in a way in which other inexpensive cars are not. This type of psychology and image appeals to the majority of humans, and it is important for a brand to have a consistent image.

Those that want a cheap car that looks cheap, feels cheap and performs like a cheap car, are the minority.

 

[Ogre]

i thought he said they were doing 1k/wk a quarter ago (or was that kato rd?)

If they were doing 1k/ week and tripled production they’d be at about 13.5 GWH which would be pretty awesome.

Drew said something I didn’t fully register.

Rob Mauer said 1,000 a week and Sawyer Merritt said 1,000 packs a week. 1,000 packs per week makes sense, that’s a little over 4GWH of capacity.

 

[verystandard]

Very good reminder for everyone

https://twitter.com/x/status/1582984673235697664

 

[Artful Dodger]

I wish Tesla would cancel the Roadster.

So we can confirm your account isn't FredTrek?

 

[insaneoctane]

Tesla : we'll grow 50% as far as we can see, industry leading margins, we'll do a big stock buyback, lowering costs, record cash pile and no significant debt
Wall St : pffft. SELL!

Priceless commentary...this needs to be a meme!

 

[insaneoctane]

Most important part of the call

Drew at 1:02:40. "The are challenges ahead that we still have not surpassed, no doubt"

He was answering about 4680 and Semi. Seems like 4680 progress is way overhyped yet again.

Based off the call comments and continued reliance on the 2170s, I think 4680 progress is within the lower bounds of what they considered possible outcomes on battery day... I do suspect that they are much slower than they had optimistically hoped. I think they are making progress and solving challenge after challenge, but it's slow going, especially for Elon. Nonetheless, they aren't showing their disappointment in not hitting the best-case scenario because it's within the bounds of reality. Tesla sets crazy ambitious targets that when missed, might feel disappointing...until you realize no one else could have come close to performing what Tesla did. Converting the impossible into late.

 

[EVMeister]

Twice the market cap of Saudi Aramco, excluding Optimus: 7.86T x 2 = 15.72T.

(Of course, Tesla would likely be worth thousands of, or more, times the value of Saudi Aramco in a post-Oil global economy.)

Just a quick correction. Saudi Aramco has a market cap of ~7.90T SAR, which is ~$2.10T USD. So he's projecting ~$4T rather than $15.72T. I see from the subsequent discussions that the $4T projection is understood.

 

[Max Plaid]

Tesla needs to come out with a cheaper vehicle. The market for $60,000+ cars is only so large; it's insane that we already sold more vehicles than Corolla globally in September. Can Cybertruck psuh 50% growth YoY? Maybe temporarily. But for mass adoption of electric vehicles globally it's going to require a cheap car, a small compact car that fits international roads better, and a lot of batteries.

Sidenote: ABML (led by ex-Tesla engineer and with a bunch of Nevada Gigafactory OGs now hired) just won a $57 million grant today. People talk about Redwood all the time but what ABML is doing with hydrometallurgical processes for both extraction and recycling is novel and impactful.

I've been saying this for a long time now. We need the Model Q

The main argument against this is that Tesla are already selling all the higher-priced cars they can produce and that a smaller car would cannibalise these sales

However, the TAM for MS/3/X/Y is limited, not only is it cost-based, but also demographic. These cars are way too big for many, especially outside the USA. Plus, the drop-off in these sales will come abruptly and Tesla should be ready to fill that gap when it comes, not wait until it happens then have a 2-3 year ramp-time

Maybe it could be developed behind the scenes and revealed when ready for production, like Apple "available as of next week", that would be fun

 

[Artful Dodger]

Based off the call comments and continued reliance on the 2170s, I think 4680 progress is within the lower bounds of what they considered possible outcomes on battery day... I do suspect that they are much slower than they had optimistically hoped. I think they are making progress and solving challenge after challenge, but it's slow going, especially for Elon. Nonetheless, they aren't showing their disappointment in not hitting the best-case scenario because it's within the bounds of reality. Tesla sets crazy ambitious targets that when missed, might feel disappointing...until you realize no one else could have come close to performing what Tesla did. Converting the impossible into late.

I think you're missing the overall purpose of Battery Day, and the 4680 development program. That is, to force Tesla's existing battery suppliers to get off the dime!

Panasonics geriatric management in Japan was unwilling to make further capital investments at Giga Nevada because they had 'demand concerns'. Faaq. So Elon said, right we'll do it ourselves. You want to compete?

Now, CATL supplies ~half of Tesla's battery packs in LFP chemistry. LG provides NMC chemistry in 2170 format for Shanghai and Berlin. And guess what? Telsa is now (finally) adding new construction at Giga Nevada, while moving Powerwall/pack production to Lathrop to free up even more space for Panasonic to build more 2170s.

Panasonic is profitable in N. America now. Tesla is ramping the Semi which will be produced in Sparks, NV. And Semi will use 2170s produced by Panasonic in N. America (about 33 GWh of 2170s by 2024, based on 50K production and a 650 KWh pack)

That was the REAL purpose of Battery Day. LET'S GO!

So only Plaid Cybertruck really depends on 4680s next year, and frankly I'm waiting for an LFP pack in a CT so I can use the truck 52 wks/yr instead of just 2 weeks (stationary storage vs. holiday travel).

Roadster? That's peanuts. It's all about TONNAGE!

 

[Max Plaid]

The 3/Y can be made much cheaper with a litany of slight modifications. Also, Tesla doesn't need to make 30%+ margins. If hypothetically they could sell 4x the volume with 20% margins by cutting the price by $7k, then of course they will do that. 3s and Ys could probably sell 10M per year combined if ASP drops to like $45k.

M3 is still way too big for most people in many parts of the world, and even with some cost-savings/margin squeeze, we're looking at, what, back to the $35k range? That's too much, needs to be sub $20k - 4680 battery price-reductions and manufacturing efficiency will make such a car feasible while maintaining high margins