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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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If only the demand was there 🤭 /s

This is huge news!
Yeah, some anecdotal evidence for demand - one friend is waiting for his 3 performance to be delivered in a few weeks, a neighbor who got a new 3 LR just asked last week if he could charge at my wallbox because he didn´t have one yet, and today I gave an introduction to a 3 LR for a colleague of a friend (he got it from a company that buys them from Tesla, rents them for a year and then sells them afterwards (likely even with profit to other EU countries after cashing in on the German EV incentive, they obviously didn´t do a good job explaining the car..)
 
Didn't Tesla just post record earnings on Q3 and the market "rewarded" it by a sizeable drop in SP ?
I don't know what kind of hopium to believe anymore...
You know the old saw about how the Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent? Well, ever wonder how they know when you're about to go under? It's because they own all the data: they have retail's account balances, options positions, and expiry dates. They know when you will break; IBB doesn't even ask you before they liquidate your shares (not even the courtesy of a margin call).

Last thing that actually fueled a rally was the Hertz purchase announcement -- which made zero sense as Tesla sells all cars they can produce anyway.
That wasn't the last thing. That was the Q3 2022 S&P 500 index rebalancing, when Tesla peaked at 2.5% of the Index. The main stream media will not talk about that, but I mentioned it here at the time. That was FORCED buying of a large number of shares that HAVE to be delivered (Index funds will NOT accept a non-delivery report instead of a share -- Shortzes HAD to cover, and lo and behold! the SP went up for 13 straight days. Then, straight back to shenanigans ('cuz they can -- see the parable of the Frog and the Scorpion).

Those who HODL will be richly rewarded -- this PHASE is all about shaking loose as many shares as possible from Retail, and transferring them ON THE CHEAP to institutions and investment banks (who backed the wrong horse 5 years ago, and now scramble to recover).

That's what el Gordo's $145 b.s. is about -- not about value of the company, or prospects for future earnings. It's about shortzes getting their money back. FUD = THUD.

TL;dr Don't play options, avoid leverage, and then the chaotic swings of that hinged pendulum called the "Options Market" can't throw you off of what is clearly a winning ride: (TSLA)

 
You have to appreciate them last minute QQQ bear raids
Some trades might not be bear raid ; sometimes low asks could be margin calls, which I believe. (no proof).

I think whenever the market tanks big like today, somebody will get margin called. Many will sell before 4PM for market liquidity, but then at 4:01PM, the brokers start to liquidate holdings of those laggers.

It is a matter of guessing how many shares might be margin called, how low can you bid yet still get the fill for the quantity you want, and when to submit the bid in order to catch other traders playing this game off guard.

Not sure if my reasoning is true, but it worked for me today. Put in an order for $214.52 at 3:57PM and got filled at 4:01PM.

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You know the old saw about how the Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent? Well, ever wonder how they know when you're about to go under? It's because they own all the data: they have retail's account balances, options positions, and expiry dates. They know when you will break; IBB doesn't even ask you before they liquidate your shares (not even the courtesy of a margin call).


That wasn't the last thing. That was the Q3 2022 S&P 500 index rebalancing, when Tesla peaked at 2.5% of the Index. The main stream media will not talk about that, but I mentioned it here at the time. That was FORCED buying of a large number of shares that HAVE to be delivered (Index funds will NOT accept a non-delivery report instead of a share -- Shortzes HAD to cover, and lo and behold! the SP went up for 13 straight days. Then, straight back to shenanigans ('cuz they can -- see the parable of the Frog and the Scorpion).

Those who HODL will be richly rewarded -- this PHASE is all about shaking loose as many shares as possible from Retail, and transferring them ON THE CHEAP to institutions and investment banks (who backed the wrong horse 5 years ago, and now scramble to recover).

That's what el Gordo's $145 b.s. is about -- not about value of the company, or prospects for future earnings. It's about shortzes getting their money back. FUD = THUD.

TL;dr Don't play options, avoid leverage, and then the chaotic swings of that hinged pendulum called the "Options Market" can't throw you off of what is clearly a winning ride: (TSLA)

I watched your video all the way through... very interesting.
Reminds me of my wife and her movements when I climb into bed at night 🌙
 
So if the 40K+ pending registrations is correct, I think you can add about 30,000+ to the China numbers for October.

I don't think Elon was kidding when he said Q4 is going to be epic. I still think almost everyone is underestimating what's going to happen this quarter.
It's gonna be epic...now...how the crooks at Wall Street translate the epicness is left to be seen.
 
As others have noted, it’s not possible to determine what kind of dog you’re consuming BUT…
It’s no mystery whatsoever as to why you reported a lingering foul taste: French’s Yellow Mustard😬
Not only were they animal meat, but I found out afterwards that they are the cheapest hotdogs you can buy (which could explain why it tasted so bad). Since our disabled daughter is a human garbage disposal that eats anything, my wife gets those dogs for $1/pack. That's right - an entire pack for $1. I'm pretty sure that means those are filled with all the animal scraps that other profit hungry hot dog companies have too much integrity to use. I'm lucky I didn't need to get my stomach pumped, but it probably took one year off my life.... 🤕

(Edit: Apparently she got the cheap hot dogs to save more money since we were facing margin calls.... She won't do that again.)
 
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I didn't pay very close attention to the Twitter deal funding. Say Twitter as a business crashed hard, would Elon have to sell any TSLA to cover creditors etc.? Or is that an unknown?
The reason you purchase shares is that it protects you against the company's bankruptcy and other liabilities. As Bkp_Duke says, they will still have to pay off any loans.
 
low asks could be margin calls, which I believe. (no proof).

Margin calls don't need to result in share sales. The person receiving a margin call can also add equity, purchase puts, or sell calls as required to maintain their minimums. Trouble often come when the Broker changes their margin requirements on short notice (know surprise).

Shares are liquidated by Brokers "at the Market", which means your shares are sold at the National Best Bid and Offer - a SP is not entered by the Broker; they just accept whatever SP the Market is trading at ATM when selling your shares:

National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO) Definition | www.nasdaq.com

National Best Bid and Offer (NBBO). A term applying to the SEC requirement that brokers must guarantee the best available ask or bid price when they buy or sell ...
 
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Toyota is just so lost. I can see this argument for the Dodge Hellcat, but really how many real performance Toyota stick shifts are sold?

Reminds me of the argument that smartphones (Blackberry and a few others) needed to have physical buttons to be functional.
 
I didn't pay very close attention to the Twitter deal funding. Say Twitter as a business crashed hard, would Elon have to sell any TSLA to cover creditors etc.? Or is that an unknown?

First, what do you mean by "Crashed hard"?

It's no longer a public company so it has no public stock price. Now if you mean "just starts setting cash on fire quarter over quarter because they can't pivot to profit" then....

Second- based on the most recent details of the financing (which aren't time-of-deal recent, but nothing significantly different was filed with the SEC) we know Elon took no margin loans of any kind to close the deal... he was personally bringing ~33 billion (which includes some amount, ~7 billion at last info, from other equity investors who get some % of ownership) and the other ~13 billion was bank loans on twitter (not margin loans).

So based on that there's no case where if anything dropped below anything his TSLA shares would be auto sold.

There IS a significant amount of servicing needed on that 13B debt-- at any point he might find the private company he owns in a position where it needs more cash-- and ONE route to get it would be selling TSLA shares... but hardly the only one. He could ask for more $ from existing equity investors-- or take on new ones-- or ask the banks to restructure the debt in some way (this last one is less likely because the banks already are gonna take a bath on the deal due to the delay and now being unable to resell the debt for a reasonable amount).