I highly doubt it! Unless something goes even more drastically wrong on the macro level. Before 2019 Tesla wasn’t consistently profitable. Now they are and growing earnings exponentially. The stock price will react to this sooner than before.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
High inflation is literally the best reason to invest in real companies with real assets and real production. Only by owning real productive assets can you protect against your wealth against becoming devalued by inflation. This is because even a static production volume becomes worth more dollars with inflation. That's the part that protects you from inflation. The part that increases your wealth is when that production is growing, not only in dollars because of inflation, but in physical units.
Get in line... my tickets are already purchased!
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
OK guys shall we all meet up back here in what, about 4.7 years?
I expect that chart to steepen because we are entering the phase of the EV adoption curve that should be the steepest. And also, Tesla is a much stronger company than they have ever been before which increases the chances that some of their non-automotive initiatives will start taking off. Those are the primary reasons why I don't think we have "several years of nothingness" ahead of us.
This chart is a good illustration of just how bright the future looks. Tesla is one of the most stupendously incredible companies that has ever lived and my gratitude goes out to all the hardworking employees and team members that have made Tesla what it is today.
P.S. Thank you for using the log price scale!
Shouldn't the standard be more like 10x earnings? (Did I say that?) Maybe this is where the smoke is still too thick for the Fed with the market in general having such high P/E ratios and no growth, and trying to pop THAT bubble.
In my world, I see TSLA (or X) as a form of currency. Even if TSLA SP stayed flat for 2 yrs, other company multiples will (finally) look pretty naked out there with no growth in sight. So as 401Ks shrink, TSLA stays relatively flat or simply drops by a lesser percentage amount. Isn't this a lot like money? And a tangible currency that so happens to also produces the best products in the world?
Actually it was originally posted by @sroh . I just added the joke. Pretty much all I'm good for really
The thing that truly amazes me is the unknown potential. Like my modeling is only for cars and energy and the outlook for the share price on those alone is FANTASTIC.
BUT, when I do guesswork on the possible potential of RoboTaxis the future valuations get silly. THEN if I add in Optimus, even very conservatively for the end of the decade (and beyond) the valuation gets stupid high. I don't even know how to include anything for Dojo or a potential Tesla HVAC business.
And who knows what products & innovations we don't know anything about at all today that could be coming down the pipeline.
There are downside risks too of course, but the potential upsides are the best I've seen for a single company in my 25+ years of stock investing. It's not even close.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Oh absolutely, TSLA at it's current price is a huge opportunity, and the risk vs reward over the long term is outstanding. My "a few years of flat trading" post above is my overly pessimistic outlook, my "worst case" so to speak. A large part of me expecting my worst case to play out is simply lowering my expectations purposefully. The potential upside for TSLA over the next few years is massive. My pessimism stems more from the market environment itself than Tesla.
There is a reason I am all in on TSLA and holding like a starving bear on a salmon in the winter.
Evolution over the millennia taught bears to solve the winter hunger problem by hibernating. Investors should be so wise as to mimic them during lean times. Wall Street hates it when investors sit tight on their valuable shares after they do their best to scare everyone away.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
It's not about time, production, or even revenues. It's all about the next earnings breakout. And you can hear the rumblings on the wind, in spite of the fog...
larmor
Active Member
Or the next years' earning projections based on new product lines, semi and cybertruck.
thesmokingman
Active Member
lol, it's MnA chat time on CNBC and someone suggested Musk acquires Boeing, insano. The premise they put forward is that Boeing have failed to execute and need to get back to engineering first and SpaceX is the best in execution in that space. Makes total sense for them...
Makes ya think...
Makes ya think...
Or the other 3 things we don't know about because innovation is a steady stream over there.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
There are not enough Elon's in the world and the one we have doesn't have enough time in the day to also turn Boeing around. I think that's one reason, of many, that he was attracted to Twitter. He can have an outsized impact on the company (and the world) with minimal input of time and energy.
Just to get trashed tomorrow. Apple not only lost all its gains from a stellar earnings but actually is way below pre earning levels. They are trying pretty hard to make QQQ hit a new low today.
Listened to it to understand why he thinks rates are headed to >6%, IMO the argument is flawed and based on seemingly odd speculation about middle class millennials, in all countries except the US, where these gov's can't raise rates as they have little to no demand and thus the Fed will raise rates higher than it otherwise would if this wasn't happening...
I think rate hikes stop at 4.5% around mid-next year, when GDP has totally gone south (and I think last quarter GDP was propped up by high inventories and increased federal/state spending, otherwise would have been flat to negative...). You'd think they'd slow their own spending to help bring down inflation. But that would be reasonable now wouldn't it?
Me thinks it be sooner than that...
Jump one: a year after Model S production
Jump two: three years after Model 3 (small step up), aligned with Model Y and Shanghai startup
2022 - Semi, Berlin, Austin
2023 - Cybertruck
2024 - Robo car, Robot, Factory X
Live stream link to sign up and apparently you get a T-shirt mailed to you...
Get in line..Me too.
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